Safety Set as I Await Smith & Wesson, Planet Labs Earnings
I’m holding off on trades as I await earnings for these two $10K Portfolio names; also, SoFI updates and drone news.
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Drone News
As announced almost three weeks ago, the Trump administration implemented tariffs of up to 100% on imported drones and imported drone parts as it seeks to slow down — and compete with — the Chinese drone industry. The idea is to boost the domestic manufacturing sector. A 100% tariff is now hitting unmanned aircraft that weigh more than 55 pounds or use thermal imaging.
The vast majority of such vehicles are manufactured in China. Smaller drones now face a tariff of 25%. This, at least in theory, would be a positive for U.S.-headquartered drone makers such as AeroVironment (AVAV), Kratos Defense (KTOS), Red Cat Holdings (RCAT), and portfolio holding Ondas (ONDS). This also impacts major defense contractors such as Boeing (BA), Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX (RTX) and Northrop Grumman (NOC).
SOFI In the News….
Portfolio holding SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and privately held Payward, parent of Kraken, have announced a strategic partnership designed to enhance banking, payments, liquidity, and digital asset markets. Through this agreement, Payward will leverage SoFi’s Big Business Banking capabilities, join the SoFi Exchange Network and list the SoFiUSD stablecoin on its multi-asset trading platform.
SoFi will also use Kraken Prime, which is Payward’s full-service prime brokerage solution, as an additional source of digital asset liquidity, with qualified custody capabilities available as the relationship between the two firms grows.
By joining SoFi’s real-time settlement network, Payward will unlock new pathways for institutional clients to clear and settle U.S. dollar transactions without concern for trading hours or closing times.
The network is open 24 hours a day, and seven days a week. Extending settlement beyond traditional banking or market hours also enhances the money movement process.
Clients will be able to move capital and manage risk as well as liquidity on their schedule. The partnership will also connect Kraken, one of the world’s largest digital asset platforms, to the SoFi Network. On top of that, SoFi will use the prime brokerage, Kraken Prime, as an additional source of digital asset liquidity, enabling better pricing for SoFi members on trades they already make. Kraken institutional clientele will be able to use SoFi’s real-time settlement capabilities to move the dollar and manage liquidity at any hour.
Coverage Change
Last week, I informed readers that analyst Vincent Caintic of BTIG reiterated his “hold” rating on SOFI without setting a target price. I don’t know what happened between last week and this week, but BTIG has now assigned coverage of SOFI to analyst Lance Jessurun. Jessurun has initiated SOFI with a “buy” rating and a $25 target price, completely changing BTIG’s officially stated view on the stock.
As for the two analysts, Caintic is rated at four stars out of five by TipRanks. He has compiled a 52% success rate over the past two years while generating an average return of 6.7%. Jessurun is rated at just two stars out of five by TipRanks. He has a 74% success rate over two years which is outstanding but has generated an average return of just 1.6% over that time. It looks to me that the reason for his low average rate of return was a “sell” rating on Affirm Holdings (AFRM) that went terribly wrong.
Upcoming Portfolio Earnings
- Planet Labs (PL) – After the closing bell this evening. Expected: Adjusted loss per share $0.02 on revenue of $104.25 million.
- Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) – After the closing bell this evening. Expected: Adjusted loss per share of $0.05 on revenue of $98.7 million.
Wednesday’s Intentions vs. Actual Trades
- Sell 5 shares of PL at or close to the last sale of $19.80.
- Sold 5 shares of PL at $20.18.
- Sell 25 shares of ONDS at or close to the last sale of $7.39.
- Sold 25 shares of ONDS at $7.52.
- Sell 15 shares of VELO at or close to the last sale of $11.44.
- Sold 15 shares of VELO at $11.64.
Thursday’s Intention
Cash has been raised. No changes intended ahead of Planet Labs and Smith & Wesson earnings tonight.
Current Positions
Long 100 shares of ALTO at $4.5125. Target Price: $6.50. Last sale: $4.16.
Long 40 shares of ASPN at $5.23. Target Price: $10. Last sale: $5.00.
Long 100 shares of EVLV at $5.7883. Target Price: $8.50. Last sale: $5.11.
Long 100 shares of OCUL at $8.3545. Target Price: $11. Last sale: $10.98.
Short one OCUL $11 Sep 18th call at $1.65, Last sale: $0.50.
Long 225 shares of ONDS at $8.4324. Target Price: $12. Last sale: $7.71.
Long 50 shares of PL at $23.5514. Target Price $33. Last sale: $19.51.
Long 5 shares of RKLB at $77.936. Target Price $97. Last sale: $64.73.
Long 100 shares of SOFI at $15.8511. Target Price: $24. Last sale: $17.95.
Short one SOFI $22 Nov 19th call at $1.20, Last sale: $0.66.
Long 70 shares of SWBI at $14.9645. Target Price: $19. Last sale: $12.93.
Long 85 shares of VELO at $12.0971. Target Price: $18. Last sale: $11.80.
Cash: $1,286.37.
Portfolio Value: $10,116.63, +1.2% from inception on March 24th.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long VELO, SWBI, SOFI, RKLB, ONDS, PL, OCUL, EVLV, APSN, ALTO, LMT, RTX equity; short SOFI, OCUL.
