Rocket Lab’s Chart Has Me Perplexed. Here’s My Next Move.
As Rocket Labs teases, I’m buying more, but lowering my expectations.
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Most perplexing, at least to me, technically, has been the performance of $10,000 Portfolio holding Rocket Lab (RKLB).
Readers will see that RKLB has put together successive Falling Wedge patterns of bullish reversal that both worked as advertised, and that both rallies failed to take root. The stock has lost all of its key moving averages and that has forced some professional reduction of exposure. That said, Relative Strength is coming out of a technically oversold condition. On top of that, the daily MACD, while still bearish in nature, is showing signs of improvement.
The histogram of the 9-day EMA appears to have stabilized, while the 12-day EMA seems to be curling upwards towards the 26-day EMA. While not yet bullish, this indicator does seem to be less bearish.
My current pivot is that 50-day SMA. That forces me to cut my price target for RKLB to $84 from $97.
Thursday’s Intention
– Purchase 2 shares of RKLB at $52 (limited) or better.
Wednesday’s Intentions vs Actual Trades
– No trades intended
Portfolio News
Rocket Lab
On Wednesday, ViaSat (VSAT) announced it has advanced the company’s demonstration mission for NASA’s Communications Services Project with the successful launch of the Maxwell spacecraft from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station on October 20 during the Bandwagon-5 rideshare mission with SpaceX (SPCX). This on-orbit demonstration mission is a key milestone in Viasat’s work developing innovative space-based communication services under two Communications Services Project contract awards totaling $81 million.
Viasat’s government space team will now proceed with on-orbit testing and demonstrations that will take place over five months through March 2027. Rocket Lab is the builder of the Maxwell spacecraft. That work is done at the firm’s Long Beach, California, facility.
Ocular Therapeutix
On Wednesday, Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) met with Piper Sandler and held a fireside chat-type presentation. Management’s tone appeared to be positive and focused on the company’s lead retinal therapy program, AXPAXLI.
According to a company social media post about the Piper Sandler event, CEO Pravin Dugel said the discussion centered on Ocular’s progress toward its planned NDA submission, ongoing clinical, regulatory, and commercial preparations, and the rationale behind the design of the Phase 3 SOL clinical program.
The company showed a belief that AXPAXLI’s long durability could differentiate it from current anti-VEGF therapies used in wet AMD. This could lead to a potentially differentiated label and stronger commercial positioning should the pivotal trials support approval.
SoFi Technologies
On Wednesday, SoFi (SOFI) and Prudential Financial (PRU) announced a joint effort to provide over 15 million SoFi members the ability to purchase Prudential term life insurance directly within the SoFi app. Through a fully digital experience built and operated by SoFi, members can explore Prudential’s SimplyTerm life insurance, receive an instant quote, and apply for and purchase coverage in one place.
Available through the SoFi app, the embedded experience streamlines the application process and reduces redundant data entry, with eligible members potentially able to obtain coverage in minutes without a medical exam or lab work.
Current Positions
Long 60 shares of ASPN at $5.1083. Target Price: $10. Last close: $5.63.
Long 50 shares of EVLV at $5.33.92. Target Price: $7.50. Last close: $4.42.
Long 170 shares of OCUL at $8.1627. Target Price: $12. Last close: $6.48.
Short one OCUL $9 Dec 18th call at $0.80, Last close: $0.23.
Long 310 shares of ONDS at $7.7674. Target Price: $12. Last close: $6.27.
Long 110 shares of PL at $19.7084. Target Price: $20. Last close: $13.71.
Short one PL $17 Nov 19th call at $1.70, Last close: $0.22.
Long 60 shares of PTON at $5.0263. Target Price: $9. Last close: $5.24.
Long 12 shares of RKLB at $61.382. Target Price $97. Last close: $53.67.
Long 150 shares of SOFI at $15.90. Target Price: $24. Last close: $14.90.
Cash: $188.10.
Portfolio Value: $8,448.74, -15.5% from inception on March 24th.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long ASPN, EVLV, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PTON, RKLB and SOFI.
