New Velo3D Price Target as the Small-Cap 3D-Printing Name Sees Post-Earnings Surge
The firm is exploding hire and we've got a plan to capitalize.
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Two of our $10K Portfolio companies reported their quarterly numbers on Tuesday evening. There has been a significant market reaction for at least one of the two.
Let's get into it.
Velo3D (VELO)
For the three-month period ended March 31. Velo3D posted an adjusted EPS of -$0.20 (GAAP EPS: -$0.28) on revenue of $13.816 million. The top-line print not only beat expectations but was good enough for year-over-year growth of 44.8%.
The adjusted bottom-line number compares well to the year ago print of -$0.67. The GAAP EPS print compares well to the -$1.87 posted for the year-ago period.
The firm burned $17.978 million worth of cash on operations for the period, while capex spending reached $940,000. The firm ended the quarter with a cash position of $16.564 million and inventories of $28.104 million. VELO ended the period with short-term debt of $3.135 million and long-term debt of $6.037 million.
The firm's current and quick ratios landed at 2.45 and 1.39, respectively. When adjusted for contract liabilities or deferred revenues, these ratios rise to 3.45 and 1.96, respectively. This implies that the firm can effectively meet its short- to medium-term obligations without difficulty. That said, I would like to see progress toward positive cash flows in order to grow that cash balance versus the debt load.
VELO guided full year 2026 revenue towards a range of $60 million to $70 million, bringing the midpoint of that range above the $63.2 million that Wall Street had in mind. The firm expects to reach positive adjusted EBITDA by the second half of the year. The stock is trading sharply higher on Wednesday morning.
Readers will see the double-bottom pattern on the daily chart of VELO with the $16.50 pivot. Relative strength and the daily MACD will both take on a more bullish posture once the market opens. We'll likely take a little something off of the position due to this 20% overnight move. The portfolio's target price moves to an even $20.
Evolv Technologies (EVLV)
For the three-month period ended March 31, Evolv Technologies (EVLV) posted an adjusted EPS of -$0.02 (GAAP EPS: -$0.03) on revenue of $46.328 million. The top-line print not only beat Wall Street quite decisively but was good enough for year-over-year growth of 44.7%. The adjusted bottom-line number runs even with the year ago print of -$0.02. The GAAP EPS print does not compare so well to the -$0.01 posted for the year-ago period.
The firm burned $3.179 million worth of cash on operations for the period, while capex spending reached $4.965 million. The firm ended the quarter with a cash position of $56.081 million and inventories of $8.256 million. EVLV ended the period with no short-term debt, but long-term debt of $28.665 million.
The firm's current and quick ratios landed at 1.21 and 1.14, respectively. These numbers do pass muster. Importantly though, when adjusted for $75.314 million in deferred revenue, these ratios rise to a much more impressive 3.01 and 2.84, respectively. This balance sheet is in better than fine shape.
EVLV increased its revenue guidance for the full year 2026 from $172 million to $178 million to $175 million to $180 million. The firm still sees full year ARR at $415 million to $150 million and adjusted EBITDA margin in the high single digits (in percentage terms). The firm is solid fundamentally. Now, it needs to work on profitability.
Readers will see that EVLV rallied out of a falling-wedge pattern of bullish reversal in March with a mini-double bottom at the nadir. The rally since is illustrated here within a Raff Regression model. We see the stock trying to find support at both the lower trendline of the model and its own 200-day SMA. That red line is out pivot. Our target stands at $8.50.
Upcoming Portfolio Earnings
-Ondas Inc (ONDS) ahead of the opening bell on Thursday, May 14
-Sidus Space (SIDU) ahead of the opening bell on Thursday, May 14
Tuesday's Intentions vs Tuesday's Actual Trades
Intention: Sell 3 shares of (RKLB) at $112 or better, leaving a long position of seven shares
Actual trade: Sold three shares of RKLB at $115.35
Intention: Buy back the one $13 ONDS call at $0.25 or better, to close that position
Actual Trade: Bought one $13 ONDS call at $0.23
Wednesday's Intentions
-Sell 15 shares of VELO at or close to the last sale of $16.84, leaving a long position of 45 shares
-Buy 10 shares of EVLV at or close to the last sale of $6.86, increasing that long position to 60 shares.
Current Positions
Long 50 shares of EVLV at $6.0898. Last sale: $6.86.
Long 25 shares of (MBLY) at $8.92. Last sale: $9.30.
Long 150 shares of (OCUL) at $8.305. Last sale: $9.15.
Short one OCUL $11 September 18 call at $1.65, Last sale: $1.65.
Long 125 shares of ONDS at $9.4749. Last sale: $9.07.
Long 10 shares of (PL) at $37.18. Last sale: $41.80.
Long 12 shares of (PLTR) at $140.30. Last sale: $134.85.
Long 7 shares of RKLB at $62.6157. Last sale: $122.68.
Long 125 shares of SIDU at $2.725. Last sale: $3.35.
Long 100 shares of (SNAP) at $5.9034. Last sale: $5.53.
Short one SNAP $7 June 19 call at $0.45, Last sale: $0.09.
Long 175 shares of (SOFI) at $15.9573. Last sale: $15.87.
Short one SOFI August 21 $20 call at $1.02. Last sale: $0.87.
Long 60 shares of VELO at $11.7427. Last sale: $16.84.
Cash: $833.90
Portfolio Value: $11,319.02, +13.2% from inception on March 24.
Note To Readers: The $10K Portfolio will not be published again until next Monday.
Related: What Investors Can Expect From Trump's Trip to China
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long EVLV, MBLY, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PLTR, RKLB, SIDU, SNAP, SOFI and VELO.
