Marriott Vacations Is a Destination, But Is It an Investment?
The stock price needs a more developed base pattern.
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corp VAC is the timeshare business that Marriott MAR spun off. In 1984, Marriott became the first branded hospitality company to enter the timeshare industry. VAC was established as a separate, publicly traded entity focusing primarily on vacation ownership in November 2011.
VAC was rated a new fundamental buy at Mizuho Securities Tuesday with a $128 price target.
Let's check the calendar for some time off and the charts of VAC.
In this daily bar chart of VAC, below, I can see that prices have improved from a low in December. Prices now trade above the rising 50-day moving average line and the still declining 200-day line.
The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) is largely flat even though trading volume has been more active since November. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator is above the zero line.
In this weekly Japanese candlestick chart of VAC, below, I see a mixed setup. The longer-term pattern is a downward trend. Prices have moved above the 40-week moving average line but its slope is still negative.
The weekly OBV line shows some improvement after a long decline. The MACD oscillator has improved but is still below the zero line.
In this daily Point and Figure chart of VAC, below, I can see a potential upside price target in the $117 area.
In this weekly Point and Figure chart of VAC, below, I can see a price target in the $123 area which is less than the fundamental target.
Bottom line strategy: In full disclosure, my wife and I have been vacation club members since 2004. I read good and bad reviews on social media all the time and can relate to many of the "issues" people have experienced. On the plus side we take each of our grandchildren away on a one-on-one vacation when they turn 10 years old - lots of special memories.
The stock price has made a low and a recovery but it really needs a more developed base pattern to warrant attention from buy and hold investors.
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