I Usually Trade Risky Small-Caps. Here’s Why I’m Also in Amazon, SpaceX

My shopping list is primarily smaller stocks, but also contains names like Amazon (AMZN) and SpaceX (SPCX).

I’ve talked about my shopping list quite a bit recently and want to provide more detail on how I put it together. Much of the list consists of smaller stocks that are high risk and tend to be volatile. I look for catalysts and use market conditions to determine my position sizes, constantly trading around a core.

I also have some larger-cap names that I track to add balance. These typically have longer time frames, and I consider them core positions. I’ve already discussed how I am slowly buying Amazon during its current downcycle. There was news last week that Amazon is blocking Muse, the AI shopping assistant from Meta Platforms (META), from shopping on its site, while Walmart (WMT) and others have welcomed it. That will get plenty of attention, but I believe the more important point is that Amazon still has a significant growth engine in Amazon Web Services (AWS) that is not appreciated, and I look for the stock to recover as we move closer to its earnings report.

A second big-cap name I’m slowly accumulating is Space Exploration Technologies. It was the hottest IPO of the year but it cooled quickly, and now the chart is starting to develop in a way I find attractive.

What the Chart Is Telling Me

The main thing I like about SpaceX right now is the chart. Over the past month it has shown good relative strength while most of the space stocks have struggled, and it recently has held support around $145 well.

It has held up even as additional shares have been unlocked. About 328 million more shares held by early investors and employees became free to sell last Thursday. This is the latest in a string of unlocks since the summer. The last two releases of that size each knocked the stock down about 4%. This one pushed it to about $146 intraday and it closed nearly unchanged. On Friday it went back to the same spot and bounced again. It slipped under that level briefly on Sept. 15 and was back above $150 the next day.

When a stock absorbs a wave of new supply without breaking, it tells me somebody wants to own it. I don’t use charts to predict where a stock is going. I use them to tell me where I am wrong, and right now this chart gives me a clear line of support.

What Evercore Sees

There is also some news this morning that helps the fundamental story. Late last week Elon Musk posted on X a rundown of the Nvidia (NVDA) chips SpaceX has running in its two Colossus data centers. He said about 780,000 are online now and that the company expects to add at least two, or three “if we get lucky,” batches of 220,000 of Nvidia’s newest GB300 chips by the end of the year.

Evercore ISI analyst Kutgun Maral ran the numbers and concluded that Wall Street is underestimating how much compute SpaceX will have in the second half of 2026, and therefore how much revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization it will generate in 2027. By his math, two batches would take capacity to about 2.3 gigawatts and three would take it to 2.7, both, in his words, “well north of consensus at 2.1 GW.” His conclusion is that 2027 revenue and profits should come in significantly ahead of current estimates.

For those who don’t follow it closely, SpaceX is much more than a rocket company. It sells Starlink satellite internet service to homes, ships and planes, and it rents computing power to companies that are building artificial intelligence models. That AI business brought in $2.6 billion in the second quarter, more than triple the year before, and it is already bigger than the rocket business. More chips online means more computing power to rent.

Anyone who has followed Musk for long knows his timelines tend to slip, so I am not counting on that third batch. He expects the first one to arrive this week, though, so we will find out fairly quickly whether he is on schedule.

Why I Am Not Loading Up

There still are some big risks here. SpaceX is spending far more on its AI buildout than its businesses generate in cash, and it still loses money under standard accounting. The bigger issue is on the calendar. On Dec. 8, about 798 million more shares unlock, and next June Musk’s own stake of roughly 6.4 billion shares becomes eligible for sale. These unlocks could add pressure, but my goal is to be in a position where I want to buy more stock on additional weakness.

I suspect that many big institutions always planned to build their positions in the stock by buying the unlocks rather than chasing the IPO. That sounds like a smart strategy to me, and I’m following the same approach.

How I Am Trading It

I own a core position in SpaceX and I am trading around it. I have been doing some incremental buying when it pulls back toward $145 and taking a little off when it pops, and I plan to keep doing that as long as support holds. If $145 gives way on heavy volume, I will step back and reassess.

This is a stock where the scheduled selling creates the opportunity, and so far the buyers keep showing up right on time.

At the time of publication, DePorre was long AMZN, SPCX.