Stock Market Today

Wednesday’s VIX put/call ratio was .18 so the pros are looking for a pop in the VIX. Perhaps it finally gets jumpy.

Also today we have the makings of a bearish narrative: French Bonds (OATs). Even the clowns who didn’t even know the French had bonds yesterday are quoting OAT prices.

Maybe we’ll finally get a change in sentiment.

We’re seeing a 1% decline in S&P futures after an overnight selloff in Asia. Nasdaq is down 1.6%, Dow Jones down 0.6%.

Names like Tokyo Electron and SK Hynix lost about 6% overnight and that’s spilling over into U.S. markets.

I’m not predicting that the indexes will fall to these levels, but if they do, I’d be a buyer:

S&P 500: 7631

Nasdaq 100: 28,750 to 29,050

Dow Jones: 51,850

Charts and further details upcoming in this morning’s article.

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), a retail focused weekly investor survey, moves more bearish:

AAII Bulls (those who see higher stock prices in 6 mths, blue line) eased to 36.9% from 38.7% the prior week (still though above the 28.8% five weeks ago, which was the least since September 2025), and falling back below the long-term historic average of 37.5% after two weeks above.

Bulls also remained below the level of the Bears (who see lower stock prices in 6 mths, red line), as the Bears rose to 45.8% from 41.6% the prior week (still though below the 53.3% five weeks ago, the highest since May 2025). That leaves Bulls above Bears just twice in the last 14 weeks. Bears also remain above the long-term average of 31.0% for a 36th straight week (and they’ve only been below it 9 weeks since Dec 12, 2024).

The Neutral camp (yellow line) dropped to 17.3%, the least since early early April, from 19.7%. It remains under the long-run average of 31.5% and has been over that only twice since July 2024.

Redbook sales* in the week of October 16th decelerated but remained very healthy at +9.7% y/y growth, after hitting +10.4% the prior week, which was the best since 2022, well above the 2025 average of +5.8% y/y.

*Redbook sales are same-store sales across a panel of large general-merchandise retailers, such as department stores, discount chains, apparel retailers, drugstores, and warehouse clubs.

BofA says their clients sold US equities last week (-$9.1B), led by institutions in their 10th-biggest selling week in BofA’s data since 2008.

October is typically institutions’ heaviest selling month as mutual funds harvest tax losses ahead of their 10/31 fiscal year-ends, and BofA says institutional single-stock sales this month, relative to market cap, are already the largest of any October in its data, with two weeks still to go.

Retail sold after two weeks of buying, and hedge funds for the first time in five weeks.

US economic data remains light with weekly jobless claims, September leading and coincident indicators and the Kansas City Fed’s October manufacturing survey.

The Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of next week’s October 27–28 FOMC meeting.

Non-Bill (>1yr in maturity) US Treasury auctions continue with a $26bn 5-year TIPS auction.

Q3 earnings season continues with 27 S&P 500 components: Procter & Gamble (PG), Union Pacific (UNP), Western Digital (WDC), Blackstone (BX), Valero Energy (VLO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Newmont (NEM), Comcast (CMCSA), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Bloom Energy (BE), Honeywell (HON), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), CBRE Group (CBRE), PG&E (PCG), Roper Technologies (ROP), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), VeriSign (VRSN), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Dover (DOV), PulteGroup (PHM), Dow (DOW), Snap-on (SNA), Tractor Supply (TSCO), NVR (NVR), Allegion (ALLE) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK).

Ex-US highlights are France October business confidence, EU27 September new car registrations, Eurozone October consumer confidence, Canada September industrial product price index, and a policy decision in South Korea.