Stock Market Today: November 11, 2026

Nov 11, 7:45 AM ESTBy Helene Meisler

A Serious Change in Sentiment

Good Morning and Happy Veterans Day to those who have (or currently do) serve!

We finally had a serious change in sentiment, data-wise. This week’s Investors Intelligence Bulls fell to 37% and the Bears jumped to 24%, This is the most bears and fewest bulls since April.

This is a big deal.

Discuss this

Nov 11, 7:15 AM ESTBy Neil Sethi

Stocks and the VIX Fell Together Tuesday. Here’s What Usually Comes Next.

The S&P 500 fell 0.38% Tuesday as a hot CPI report and two hawkish Fed officials sent Treasury yields sharply higher (The Equity Bounce Runs Into a Hawkish Fed). But the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell 2.4% to 19.45, extending Monday’s 22% drop (An Unprecedented Whipsaw in Investor ‘Fear’). VVIX, which tracks expected swings in the VIX itself, fell 1.8% to 96.63.

A “spot down, vol down” day isn’t unusual by itself. The VIX has fallen on about 23% of S&P 500 down days since 1990. At Tuesday’s size, though, it’s rare: the S&P 500 down at least 0.38% and the VIX down at least 2.4% has happened on just 100 of 2,514 comparable down days, or 4%. There were none in the past year, and Tuesday’s was the first since March 11, 2025.

It tends to show up when volatility is already high and starting to ease. Sixty-nine of those 100 days came with the VIX already at 19 or higher, and 11 came in the 2022 bear market alone.

Seven came within three sessions of a 30%-plus VIX jump, as Tuesday’s did after Thursday’s 70% spike:

June 25, 1990.
Sept. 18, 2001, the second session after markets reopened following 9/11.
Jan. 27, 2014, during an emerging-market selloff.
Aug. 25, 2015, after China’s devaluation.
June 27, 2016, after the Brexit vote.
Feb. 7, 2018, after “Volmageddon.”
Feb. 26, 2021, during a Treasury selloff.

The S&P 500 was higher a month later all seven times, by 4.2% on average, versus 0.8% for all days since 1990. Three months later it was up six of seven times, by 4.4% on average versus 2.4%. The exception was 1990, when Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August sent stocks sharply lower. The first week was more mixed, with gains in five of seven, and the VIX was lower a month later in six of seven.

What about VVIX? Its data only go back to 2007. On its own, a VVIX drop on an S&P 500 down day that size (102 cases) came before roughly normal returns. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% a month later on average and 2.4% three months later, versus 0.8% and 2.5% for all days since 2007, and it rose less often than usual.