Oil Ticks Lower, Steel Sends Warning: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to mixed market open later this morning.

1. Oil prices fell on Friday, extending losses for a third straight session as easing concerns over Saudi supply disruptions outweighed anxiety about a widening of conflict across the Middle East. (Reuters)

The off-contract ocean container shipping rate from China ‌to the U.S. East Coast has returned to levels seen after COVID-19 upended global trade, and could set new record highs as the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran drives fuel costs higher. The spot rates on that route hit $10,948 per 40-foot container, more than quadrupling since the start of the Iran war on February 28, according to data from freight pricing platform Xeneta. (Reuters)

While oil prices will finish this week lower, fresh strikes between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis will be watched to gauge whether additional Saudi crude reaches global markets and helps ease supply concerns. Reports that Saudi Arabia has found alternative ways to deliver some crude shipments to Asian buyers via Oman have helped ease fears of a more severe supply disruption.

That’s helped lift the market following the Fed’s rate hike on Wednesday afternoon, but as we can see above, with shipping rates and what AAA is reporting for gas and diesel prices, price pressures may not be at peak levels for long but the prospects for them to remain at elevated levels remains.

With the Fed exiting its policy meeting quiet period today, that means we and the market will return to parsing their comments as we approach the central bank’s late October policy meeting.

2. Shares of Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) are moving lower on Friday morning after both steelmakers issued Q3 2026 earnings guidance below Wall Street expectations. Nucor expects Q3 2026 EPS of $5.55 to $5.65, below the $5.99 consensus, with higher steel selling prices and stable volumes expected to benefit its steel mills and steel products segments, offset by higher costs and weaker raw materials results. Steel Dynamics expects EPS of $5.34 to $5.38 for the current quarter, below the $5.60 consensus. Higher steel profitability from metal margin expansion and record shipments is expected to be partly offset by weaker metals recycling results due to lower spreads and shipments.

These negative earnings pre-announcements follow the ones from Norfolk Southern (NSC) and JB Hunt (JBHT), and the warnings we discussed on Thursday from several airlines. With less than two weeks to go in the current quarter, our eyes and ears will be open for other such headlines. To the extent more of those announcements come, it will foster the market’s need to re-think H2 2026 and 2027 EPS expectations for the S&P 500.

3. Nvidia Corp will double its chip sales next year compared to this year, CEO Jensen Huang said Thursday at a summit with the U.K.’s King Charles III in Scotland. The projection marks another forecast pointing to continued growth for the next six quarters. The company recently revealed it expects 70% growth in the fiscal year ending in January 2028, reaching approximately $673 billion. (Yahoo! Finance)

When Nvidia (NVDA) reported it latest quarterly results, CEO Jensen Huang stunned with that 70% growth figure, but also noted the company would still be constrained by available chip capacity. This suggests Nvidia is finding ways around those constraints, but it also reinforces the view that, despite recent AI-related headlines, rising AI adoption and expanding usage continues to drive data center capacity and chip demand.

Three upcoming data points we’ll be watching to confirm that are September monthly revenue reports from Taiwan Semi (TSM) and Foxconn, and Marvell’s (MRVL) upcoming Investor Day.

4. Big credit card companies that power the payments world see a time coming soon where AI bots do your shopping — even without checking with you before making purchases. Mastercard rolled out an artificial-intelligence payment option Thursday for everyday purchases, through a partnership with the startup Alchemy, the companies said. The so-called agentic system would allow a virtual credit card to be issued to a person’s AI bot with set restrictions, such as a cap on how much it can spend and on what type of products. The bot can then buy things on its own, without consulting the credit card holder or first seeking permission. (WSJ)

We find the above to be an interesting development on the AI front, and one that if adopted could not only spur wider AI usage but also accelerate the shift to digital shopping. Per Census Bureau data, e-commerce accounted for about 17% of total retail sales in Q2 2026, and if we exclude categories where e-commerce is not a factor, like gas stations for example, that figure is around 23.5%. Now to see how Amazon (AMZN) and American Express (AXP) respond to Mastercard’s move…

5. Starlink Mobile is barely off the ground in the US yet, with its service primarily offered through the dead zone-filling T-Satellite service in partnership with T-Mobile. But we know the brand has bigger mobile ambitions — and it now seems they won’t be limited to the US. Following reports that SpaceX was planning to build a Starlink-branded mobile network in the US, the company — as spotted by NotebookCheck — has now received approval from the FCC (Federal Communications Commission) to offer international telecommunications services. (TechRadar)

When we read the SpaceX (SPCX) S-1 and reviewed its IPO presentation, it was relatively obvious about the company’s larger ambitions for Starlink and the potential risk for mobile service at U.S. carriers like AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). This new filing with the FCC, however, opens the door to Starlink Mobile services being offered directly to residents of other countries, rather than them only being available through partnerships with other networks.

That extends the potential competitive disruption and expands the total addressable market potential for Starlink Mobile, which is Starlink’s only currently profitable reporting segment. That prospect and ramping revenue at the company’s AI segment that should curb its operating losses gives us a reason to roll up our sleeves and do some additional work on SPCX shares.

6. Warren Buffett is stepping down as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, the $1 trillion conglomerate that he led for more than six decades. Buffett, who had said his son Howard would one day succeed him as Berkshire’s chairman, announced the news Friday in a letter to investors. He will remain on the board and become chairman emeritus, he said. (WSJ)

The end of era to say the least, and we will miss Buffett’s insights about the market, investing and life in general. We’ll continue to revisit the Oracle of Omaha’s maxims and the insights they bring as well as those of his long-time partner Charlie Munger. There’s simply too much experience and smarts to pass up.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (August), Leading Indicators (August).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: There are no market moving corporate earnings reports expected for Friday.

More Pro Portfolio

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMZN, AXP, MRVL and NVDA.