Key Takeaways From the October Housing Starts Report
Let's break down the latest numbers — and their implications.
You've reached your free article limit
You've read 0 of 1 free Pro articles.
Looking at this morning’s October Housing Starts data, because of the hurricane impact early in the month, we’re not surprised to see overall housing starts fall more than expected, to 1.311 million homes on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). The market consensus called for 1.33 million units, down from 1.35 million in September. The regional data showed that steep month-over-month declines in the Northeast and South for single-family housing starts drove the shortfall. Meanwhile, single-family housing starts in the West and Midwest jumped more than 20% compared to September.
What also stood out to us for the Northeast and South is that despite the hurricanes, October 2024 single-family housing starts were up almost 10% and down ~2%, respectively, compared to October 2023. This suggests the October 2024 dip may not be long-lived especially if recent findings from Redfin RDFN that nearly a quarter of first-time homebuyers were holding off until the election rings true. To determine the validity of those findings, we’ll be watching upcoming Purchase Index data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
We continue to see structural drivers of housing demand leading to an upturn in housing construction as the Fed further loosens monetary policy in the coming quarters. This keeps us long-term bullish on shares of TheStreet Pro Portfolio holdings Builders FirstSource BLDR, United Rentals URI, Vulcan Materials VMC and Waste Management WM. Those last three names also stand to benefit from ongoing infrastructure spending and data center construction.
As all these forces come into play, our view that 2026 should be a good year for U.S. construction activity remains. Of course, as fresh data and a better understanding of President-elect Trump’s policies are had, we’ll revisit that line of thinking as needed.
More Pro Portfolio:
- We're Closing Out This High-Flying Position With a Triple-Digit Gain
- Weekly Roundup: Powell and Inflation Toss Cold Water on the Post-Election Rally
- Updating Our Table for Panic, Potential Pickup Points
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long BLDR, URI, VMC and WM.
