Here Comes the Jobs Report: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Friday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a mixed start to the final day of trading this week.

1. The US and Iran have made little progress in talks over an interim peace deal this week, with the sides seeing their worst clashes since an April ceasefire began and fighting continuing in Lebanon. Skirmishes continued overnight between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon after the Iran-backed group rejected a US-brokered proposal aimed at securing a broader truce. Even so, Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel have eased, while Israel has held off striking Beirut after threatening to do so earlier this week. Iran insists on a ceasefire in Lebanon before accepting a deal with the US that’s meant to extend their truce by two months and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. (Bloomberg) Iran said it will seek to impose service fees for ships crossing the trade chokepoint in exchange for ensuring the vessels’ security, as opposed to transit tolls. The US has insisted the strait must reopen without tolls as Iran moves to formalize control over the waterway. (CNN)

With signs of the existing ceasefire fraying, we will continue to track weekend developments for U.S.-Iran peace talks. The introduction, or re-introduction, of fees to cross the strait is one of the terms, along with enriched uranium, that has been, at least so far, a sticking point for President Trump.

2. The U.S. is on track to log its third consecutive month of job gains this year, showing that the Iran war’s impact on employment remains limited. Solid job growth in May would help the Federal Reserve justify leaving interest rates unchanged later this month, as policymakers continue to gauge whether rising inflation is persistent enough to warrant a rate hike this year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its measures of labor conditions in May on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. (Barron’s)

Depending on the source, the market consensus calls for 85,000 to 105,000 jobs being added, slightly lower than the 115,000 added in April, with the Unemployment Rate hovering at 4.3% for the third consecutive month.

3. Global equity fund inflows surged to a three-week high in the week to June 3 as a set of robust earnings in the technology sector and investor enthusiasm over ‌the AI boom bolstered demand. According to LSEG Lipper data, global equity funds attracted a net $21.44 billion during the week, the largest amount since May 13. (Reuters)

This suggests we could see the market rally continue, but we’re also mindful of the increasingly overbought condition for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. As that fresh capital is put to work, we could see those conditions become even more so. That, along with the tendency of individual investors to “buy high” out of fear of missing out (FOMO) means we at the Portfolio will stick to our discipline for both putting capital to work and for harvesting profits for our members.

4. Lululemon Athletica Inc. lowered its annual forecast due to deteriorating performance in North America, underscoring the challenge that incoming Chief Executive Officer Heidi O’Neill faces in revitalizing the upscale yogawear brand. (Bloomberg)

During the earnings call, Lululemon (LULU) management made the following call, which reinforced the lingering impact of existing tariffs and the promotional environment that will pressure margins in the near term. More reason for us to stick with the consumer-facing positioning we have in the Portfolio:

“We expect gross margin in Q2 to decrease approximately 410 basis points compared to Q2 of 2025. This decrease will be driven predominantly by higher tariff costs, ongoing investments in store openings and optimizations and our distribution network. We expect increased tariffs to have a gross negative impact of approximately 150 basis points, with offsets of approximately 100 basis points. We expect markdowns to be up approximately 50 basis points versus last year. While we continue to expect markdowns to improve modestly year-over-year in the second half, the slower-than-expected top line trends in Q2 will necessitate additional seasonal clearance.“

5. Boeing is exploring raising production of its 737 aircraft family well beyond its publicly stated target of 63 jets per month and bringing its plans closer to Airbus’ output goals for its competing narrowbody A320neo family, The Air Current reported Thursday. Boeing (BA) is drafting plans and assessing whether its suppliers could support raising production of its 737 family to ~70/month, although the studies are at an early stage and the higher pace may not be adopted, the report said. (MSN)

Followers of the Portfolio know we recently added Boeing (BA) to the Bullpen, and that means it’s a stock and a company we are watching closely. Our thinking is that an increase in production levels would allow Boeing to convert its multi-year backlog into revenue at a quicker pace, potentially bringing incremental margin and earnings leverage with it. However, next week’s May CPI and PPI reports run the risk of bringing expectations of incrementally hawkish comments from the Fed following its upcoming June policy meeting. That possibility will see us keep a close watch on key technical indicators for BA shares.

6. Nvidia Corp. has certified the three biggest memory chipmakers to supply their most advanced high-bandwidth products for the US company’s AI accelerators, Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang confirmed for the first time. He’s given the go-ahead for Samsung Electronics Co., SK Hynix Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. to supply HBM4, an indispensable component of Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin platform for artificial intelligence work. The trio, which between them dominate the global market for storage semiconductors used in computing, compete fiercely for a slice of that lucrative business. (Bloomberg)

Another positive data point for memory companies, and that bodes well for the Portfolio’s position in Micron (MU), which is part of our EPS All-Stars model strategy. But given the demand Nvidia (NVDA) is seeing for its chips and the current capacity constraints for memory, we have to wonder if there was any other alternative? Still, we’ll take it and also recognize the likelihood this keeps memory companies focused on AI and data center demand at the expense of other end markets. In our view, that supports the need for additional capacity, a positive for our shares of Applied Materials (AMAT).

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Employment Report (May), Consumer Credit (April).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: No market-moving earnings reports are expected today.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMAT, MU and NVDA.