Google In, Verizon Out, Nike Next?: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Monday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Monday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive start to the final trading days in June.

1. U.S. markets were heading for gains early Monday with investors cheered by news that Washington and Tehran had agreed to halt strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. Technology stocks looked set to lead the way… The U.S. and Iran have agreed to end days of low-level fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and resume peace talks, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, citing officials. The exchange of strikes had marked the worst outbreak of conflict since both sides signed a memorandum of understanding for peace talks on June 17. (Barron’s) “Technical talks are slated to continue on all areas of the MOU. Both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely,” the official said, referring to the 14-point memorandum of understanding that was agreed on June 17 under which the strait would be re-opened for traffic. (Reuters) Oil ‌prices steadied on Monday as Iran and the United States agreed to halt recent hostilities in the Gulf and Middle East producers pushed ahead with loading oil and liquefied natural gas despite fresh ship attacks. (Reuters)

Oil prices are modestly higher this morning amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. While we monitor talks between the U.S. and Iran, we will also be watching shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz. While we could see further saber rattling as peace talks and work on the MOU continue, to us the area to focus on is the flow of oil and other petrochemicals as well as improving supply chain data.

2. It’s a holiday shortened week for stock and bond markets, with trading shut down on Friday for the July 4th weekend. Eyes will be on the jobs data, released on Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Before then, The BLS will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report on Tuesday, and the Institute for Supply Management will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index on Wednesday. (Barron’s)

That pretty much sums up our roadmap for the holiday shortened week. Although compressed, it will be a full one when it comes to June data that will reveal the latest on job creation and inflation pressures. As we assess the findings, we’ll be keeping a close watch on the CME FedWatch Tool as well as comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday morning. Based on Warsh’s recent, initial post-Fed policy meeting presser, odds are he will be rather tight lipped, but we should expect the market to hang on the Fed Chair’s words, nonetheless.

3. South Korea on Monday laid out a sweeping industrial strategy centred on semiconductors and artificial intelligence, as President Lee Jae Myung unveiled over $576 billion in chip investment to secure global dominance and rebalance growth. The ‌plan, anchored by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, marks Lee’s boldest push yet to align South Korea’s AI and chip ambitions with his pledge to narrow regional disparities and revive economies beyond the Seoul metropolitan area… In addition to chips, science minister Bae Kyung-hoon said South Korea is aiming to invest 550 trillion won in AI data centres by 2029 and more than 1,000 trillion won by 2035, while decentralising infrastructure to support regional growth beyond the capital. (Reuters)

Comments from Samsung (SSNLF) and SK Hynix last week telegraphed South Korea’s ginormous announcement for today, but the fleshed-out comments are very supportive for the Pro Portfolio’s chip positions and the one in Applied Materials (AMAT). Both Samsung and SK Hynix are Applied customers. We’ll be following up this formal announcement by South Korea and Micron’s (MU) earnings last week with some price target adjustments, including for AMAT.

4. Google has put limits on Meta’s use of its Gemini AI models after the social media giant sought more computing capacity than the rival tech group could provide, in the latest evidence of the infrastructure constraints facing even the world’s largest AI providers… The decision by Google to cap a large customer’s access to its models offers a rare glimpse into the infrastructure pressures and bottlenecks building across the AI industry. Despite spending tens of billions of dollars on chips, data centres and power, even the largest tech companies are struggling to secure enough computing power to support surging demand for advanced models and AI services. (FT)

Taken together with the South Korean announcement, Google (GOOGL) putting constraints on Meta (META) paints a picture of how quickly demand for compute is rising. That keeps us bullish on our digital infrastructure plays in the Portfolio, but it also suggests we could see another leg up in hyperscaler capital spending when they report their Q2 2026 earnings in the coming weeks.

5. Change is part of the Dow’s storied history — and today, June 29, features the 54th time since its inception that companies will be added or removed. Telecom titan Verizon Communications is being shown the door, Google parent Alphabet is being added, and the Dow’s biggest laggard, Nike is officially on notice… No Dow component has less influence than Nike, whose share price fell below $42 on June 24. Additionally, Nike’s five-year swoon has practically given back all of its gains since its September 2013 addition to the Dow… If Nike doesn’t right the ship quickly, it’ll likely be following Verizon out the door. (Yahoo! Finance)

We’ve known about the addition of Google to the Dow for several days and that means the bulk of institutional investors have already positioned themselves for this change. What’s not being discussed as much is how Nike (NKE) could be the next company to be removed as the Dow, much like the S&P 500, continues to be reshaped to reflect the evolving stock market.

And with that, we’ll also point out that SpaceX (SPCX) shares are scheduled to join the Nasdaq 100 index before the market opens on Monday, July 7. Cheekily, we’ll remind you that Nasdaq (NDAQ) won the listing and fast tracking the shares was a likely deal point.

6. Comcast announced plans to separate into two companies through a tax-free spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky. Shares in the company jumped 20% in premarket trading. The move, which was announced by the company early Monday, will result in two publicly traded companies. Comcast shareholders will own shares in both Comcast and NBCUniversal, the company said. The separation is expected to be completed within the next year. (WSJ) pledged on Friday to pursue its proposed takeover of ‌eBay, even after the e-commerce firm rejected an unsolicited cash-and-stock offer of about $56 billion from the videogame retailer. The company also said in a short regulatory filing that this year’s earnings will be strong, helping push up its stock ⁠price more than 2% in after-hours trading. (Reuters) The AI boom is fuelling a record surge in dealmaking in the US power and utility industry, as companies compete for capital to build energy infrastructure for data centres. Merger and acquisition transactions in the sector hit a record $203.6bn in the first five months of the year, more than 40 per cent higher than the $141.7bn figure for the whole of last year, according to research by Deloitte. (FT)

That list serves as reminder that despite headlines last week that OpenAI may push out its IPO into 2027, there is a steady stream of activity fueling investment banking activity that is generating ample fees. We continue to see OpenAI’s IPO as an eventual event and a catalyst for our shares of Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and of course, SuRo Capital (SSSS).

As it relates to Comcast (CMCSA), we know the company leans on its cable business for much of its cash flow, but it is also losing ground as customers continue to cut the cord and switch to internet-only packages and fixed wireless offerings from T-Mobile (TMUS), Verizon, and SpaceX among others. Meanwhile, the NBCUniversal business continues to stare down an increasingly competitive content landscape.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: PM – AeroVironment (AVAV), Concentrix (CNXC).

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMAT, GOOGL, META, MSFT, MU, NVDA and SSSS.