After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 13% below its one-month average 

– NASDAQ volume 30% below its one-month average 

– VIX index: down 4.08% to 16.46

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

From Charlie!

The Week in Charts (7/14/26) – Charlie Bilello’s Blog

Position: None

Thanks so much for reading my Diary today.

Enjoy the evening.

Be safe.

Until tomorrow.

Position: None 

Earnings Calendar for Before the Open Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Position: None

I moved to large short GRNY at $27.82.

Position: Short GRNY (L)

Here are today’s things:

* Shorted the indices: SPY at $752.83 and QQQ at $722.13

* Covered my index shorts for a profit: SPY at $749.63 and QQQ at $717.82

* Shorted GRNY at $27.86 and JOET at $45.83

* Shorted JPM at $338.50 and covered it at $327.31

* Reshorted JPM at $343.78

* Shorted MS at $230.43

* Added to MSOS at $4.65, MSOX at $2.73, TRLV at $8.85 and VRND at $6.08

Position: Long MSOS (VL), MSOX (S), TRLV (S), VRND (S); Short GRNY (M), JOET (S), JPM (S), MS (S)

– NYSE volume 18% below its one-month average;  
– Nasdaq volume 41% below its one-month average;  
– VIX index: down 4.37% to 16.41

Positions: None.

* Higher stock prices on lower volume…

*  NYSE volume 18% below its one-month average;  
* Nasdaq volume 41% below its one-month average;  

Positions: None.

Back shorting JPM (JPM) at $343.01.

Working on a scale higher. 

Positions: Short JPM S 

Back shorting (JPM) at $343.01.

Working on a scale higher. 

Positions: Short JPM S 

RROBBO

4m ago

Yesterday, on his afternoon show, Cramer recommended IBM…what a joke !!! LOL

https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/13/jim-cramer-says-buy-ibm-right-now-here-is-why-arvind-krishna-has-this-stock-undervalued

24/7 Wall St.Jim Cramer Says Buy IBM Right Now: Here Is Why Arvind Krishna Has This Stock UndervaluedJim Cramer sees a high-quality AI infrastructure operator hiding inside a stock the market still treats like a relic, but the bears have a leverage argument worth hearing before you pull the trigger.

Positions: None.

I moved to medium-sized (from small-sized) short (GRNY) at $27.87.

Positions: Short GRNY M

Positions: None.

From Julien at Macrostrategy:

I have calculated depreciation schedules for the Hyperscalers, based on current data plus Bloomberg capex forecasts to 2032. Under the most generous assumptions on chip depreciation (six years), and assuming 12% annual growth in underlying net income for the hyperscalers (not assuming any fresh AI income), depreciation reaches 98% of underlying net income by 2033. This means that the most successful businesses in the history of capitalism, have to build something that repeats all their past successes, and their extraordinary current market dominance, just to break even on the trade. They need to do much more than that to come out ahead.

Just to be clear, they are going to have to build the commercial equivalent of another Amazon digital marketplace, Amazon Web Services, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Google/Amazon/Microsoft Cloud, Google Search, YouTube, Google Play Appstore & Android OIS, Microsoft Office suite, SpaceX, Twitter and Oracle database solutions, from scratch, in seven years. And that’s just to break even on the LLM AI bet.

This note explains why they will never achieve that, or anything close. For the sake of your portfolios, ‘don’t drink the Kool Aid’.

Positions: Long AMZN VS GOOGL VS MSFT VS

I covered my Index shorts for a quick and substantial gain:

SPY  $749.63

QQQ $717.82

Positions: None.

Back shorting GRNY (GRNY) $27.81 and JOET (JOET) $45.82

Positions: Short GRNY S JOET S

From Peter Boockvar:

The CPI rundown/rate hike odds

After a .5% rise in headline CPI in May, it fell by .4% in June which was more than the anticipated drop of one tenth. The core rate too was under the estimate with no m/o/m change vs the estimate of up .2%. Versus last year, prices rose 3.5% headline and 2.6% core vs 4.2% and 2.9% respectively in May. CPI ex food, energy and shelter fell by one tenth m/o/m but up 2.1% y/o/y. As housing is the largest expense for most people, I’m not a fan of this level of parsing.

After the large run higher in the prior months, energy prices fell back by 5.7% in the month, though still up 15.7% y/o/y with gasoline prices in particular up by 27% y/o/y. Food prices grew by .2% m/o/m and 3% y/o/y. ‘Food at home’ prices were up by .2% m/o/m and 2.7% y/o/y. ‘Food away from home’ saw prices up .2% m/o/m and 3.4% y/o/y.

Keeping a lid on the core rate was no change in services inflation ex energy m/o/m, though still up 3.2% y/o/y. Owners Equivalent Rent cooled a touch to a .2% rise m/o/m and by 3.3% y/o/y. ‘Rent of Primary Residence’ was up .1% m/o/m and 2.8% y/o/y, getting closer to reality. Medical care costs fell one tenth m/o/m and up just 2% y/o/y which is not close to the reality on the ground, particularly with health insurance. Explain this to me, health insurance costs fell 7.4% y/o/y and by .5% m/o/m. It’s because the BLS is measuring profit margins of health insurers rather than what policies are actually being priced at. Airline fares were little changed, up by .2% m/o/m, but after a big jump in the prior months. They are up 26.5% y/o/y. It’s still expensive to fix a car with ‘maintenance’ prices up by 1.1% in the month and by 7% y/o/y. Auto insurance prices fell 2% m/o/m and 4.1% y/o/y, finally getting some price help here.

Core goods prices fell one tenth m/o/m and up .8% y/o/y. Car prices remain a key factor in the muted change. Used car prices fell .2% m/o/m and by 1.8% y/o/y. New vehicle prices were flat after two months of declines and up just .5% y/o/y. Apparel prices, after a string of gains, fell by .6% m/o/m but up 3.9% y/o/y. The prices of ‘household furnishings and supplies’ fell by one tenth m/o/m but up 1.3% y/o/y.

Reflecting higher component costs, ‘computer software and accessories’ saw prices jumped 2.3% in the month and by 17.4% y/o/y. On the other hand, ‘computers/peripherals/smart home assistants’, saw prices down .7% m/o/m and by .8% y/o/y.

Bottom line, quite the relief with the core rate (as headline will tick up again if the rise in energy prices is sustained), particularly with rents and medical care (distorted as stated) but I will say again, the complete picture only comes after the PPI details are released yesterday. Yields are getting relief too as the 2 yr yield is down 6 bps post report. The 10 yr yield is down 2.5 bps and the 30 yr yield is lower by 1 bps post number. The US dollar is weaker in response.

With respect to market pricing on rates, the odds of a hike are down to just 16% at the July meeting from 50% as of yesterday’s close after Waller’s comments. I do not think the Fed does anything in the meeting’s to come and are inclined to wait for the results of the task force. By year end, the fed funds futures are still pricing in a 100% chance of a hike and and 28% of a second.

With regards to Kevin Warsh, in his prepared testimony, he said this of note, “The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation. And we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability.”

“If we get policy right – and we will – the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.” Unfortunately for the Fed on this, the level of government spending is a key factor on inflation and with a budget deficit at 5.6% of GDP, it makes it tough to get back to 2% sustainably.

Core CPI y/o/y

Positions: None.

Upside:

-TSEM +19% (expands 300mm Silicon Photonics, Silicon Germanium and advanced packaging capacity in Japan; provides FY28 financial targets)

-CLSK +15% (secures 20-year NNN lease for Sandersville data center with undisclosed global technology company)

-CRMT +5.3% (earnings, color)

-SNDK +4.2% (chip stock strength)

-MU +3.4% (chip stock strength)

-GS +2.7% (earnings, color)

Downside:

-IBM -23% (weakness following Q2 pre-announcement)

-VIRT -10% (guidance, reports prelim Q2)

-HCA -9.2% (guides Q2, cuts FY guidance)

-FIVN -5.3% (downside momentum)

-SAP -5.3% (lower in sympathy with IBM)

-JPM -3.0% (earnings, guidance)

-WFC -2.1% (earnings, guidance)

Positions: None

* He doesn’t comment on the outlook for interest rates…

– Fed has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation- Reiterates pledge to get inflation down

– U.S. labor market appears broadly stable

– Fed’s number one objective is to get policy right

– We are seeing relatively few layoffs

– “I think inflation comes about when the government prints too much — by which I mean the central bank, and broadly speaking the government spends too much.”

– “Inflation is the Fed’s choice.”

Positions: None

Positions: None.

Dougie Kass

just now

Back shorting the Indices on the better inflation print (but oil is rising again) – its rear view mirror:

SPY $752.83

QQQ $722.13

Positions: Short (SPY) VS (QQQ) VS  

Treasury Actions

11:00 a.m.: Treasury Announces a 4, 8 and 17 Week Bill Auction;

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $95B 6-Week Bill Auction; 

4:00 p.m.: Total Net TIC Flows; Net Long-Term TIC Flows (May)

Fed Speakers

10:00 a.m.: Fed Chair Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee hearing, “The Federal Reserve’ Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report,” Washington, DC; 

12:40 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Barr (Voter) speaks on artificial intelligence before the Federal Reserve Board Annu al Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, DC (Text available. No Q&A) Livestream at www.federalreserve.gov and www.youtube.com/federalreserve;

12:55 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Barr (Voter) participates in fireside chat on “Artificial Intelligence and Financial Inclusion” before the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, DC (No text. Q&A from moderator and audience) Livestream at www.federalreserve.gov and www.youtube.com/federalreserve;

1:00 p.m.: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) participates in moderated question-and-answer session before hybrid Kenosha Area Business Alliance Business Lunch event, Kenosha, WI (Livestream available. Embargoed text TBD); 

1:30 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Cook (Voter) moderates “Consumers, Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Inclusion: Balancing Opportunities and Challenges” discussion before the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, DC (No text); 

2:55 p.m.: (VIA PRE-RECORDED VIDEO) Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman (Voter) speaks on “Responsible Innovation and Financial Inclusion” before the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, DC (Text available. No Q&A);

Positions: None.

I just took more than a ten dollar gain on my JPMorgan (JPM) short.

Covered first tranche at $337.46 and the balance at $335.95.

Position: None

The superficial instant “analysis” of JPMorgan’s (JPM) EPS report resulted in a +$5 gap higher in the share price.

I aggressively shorted JPMorgan in the premarket (after the EPS beat, more on the ratonale shortly!) at $338.50.

Position: Short JPM (S)

Bank earnings will be out today.

In all likelihood, there will be no discussion of a $316 billion hole (in unrealized portfolio losses) in the banking industry’s securities investment accounts:

In our investment world dominated by gamblers and a herd of perma bulls, this sort of issue is “non recurring” —  a “one off” if you will — and doesn’t merit discussion even though it is a hole in balance sheets.

Position: None

* B.S.(ing) In the Comments Section…

I certainly have no concession on the truth — as I write, I am often wrong and always in doubt.

But I (and Sarge) can spot the B.S. miles away and we welcome the opportunity to call it out:

Sarge

Everyone with an IQ above 85 knows that Lee is just a salesman and that Siegel is half of a goofball. Oops, did I say that? 

Dougie Kass

You did sarge and i agree

It’s not that i am a perma bear – i am perma anti bs.

As you are.

Siegel: perma bull, develops narratives that fit his bullish forecasts – non dynamic and, surprisingly, for a wharton professor, not rigorous in analysis.

Lee: how moderators don’t push back from his $14 billion loss in ethereum at bmnr is beyond me…

But then again, Cathie Wood lost $15 billion (the largest loss in etf history) and she is constantly on cnbc. 

Position: None

Doomberg on Bloom Energy (BE) (a short)…”Artificial Bloom.”

Artificial Bloom

Position: Short BE (S)

All last week the perma-bull cabal (including head cheerleader Fundstrat’s Tom Lee (every day) and Wharton’s (where I received my MBA) Dr. Jeremy Siegel on Friday — both of whom called for an imminent rise in equity prices) remarked that the pleasant decline in energy prices would serve to 1. reduce inflationary pressures and 2. be a salutary factor contributing to the next run in the S&P index over the next few weeks.

Naturally Fin TV moderators had no pushback — didn’t even discuss the failure to end the Iran War (to date) or the improvisational foreign policy that seemingly would not bring a resolution and peace.  Nor was the steady rise in global rates even brought up. 

Well, as night follows day the price of energy products have reversed dramatically in the last 48 hours and equities folded like a cheap suit.

The price of crude oil rose by nearly 10% yesterday as the war escalated and is up by another +$3.45/barrel (+4%) this morning.

Listen to the same bullish crowd respond to this and develop a rationale and another reason for continued stock market strength in the next few days.

Again, I call B.S. as inflation, interest rates and crude oil prices — as a base case — will likely be higher for longer.

The narrative from the bulls will change but the facts don’t seem to interfere in their upbeat views.

And, oh, Apple’s (AAPL) shares (last week’s fave because of price momentum) were downgraded by a brokerage (we shorted late last week).

Position: Short AAPL

The S&P Short Range Oscillator dropped back towards neutral at 1.44% vs. 2.56%.

Position: None