At 4:21 p.m.:

Volume

- NYSE volume 20% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 18% above its one-month average

- VIX: + 9.28% to 17.43

Breadth

S&P Sectors

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

NASD Advance-Decline Line

I am leaving early to meet some friends in town and to go to a bar and concert.

A big rally off the morning lows but breadth stinks up the joint and volatility continues apace:

 At 1:30 p.m. S&P cash is -41 handles.

Here are today's "Things":

* I had multiple trades in the Indices, too numerous to follow (quite frankly)

1. With S&P -80 handles, I took a small long rental in (SPY) $586.99 and (QQQ) $513.99.

2. With S&P cash -96 handles, I added to (SPY) and (QQQ) trading long rentals at $585.51 and $513.10.

3. I collapsed my Index common (long) and calls (short) for a profit.

* I added to TLT at $87.07 in premarket, sold a bunch at $87.95.

* I bought more JOE ($44.15 ) and ELAN ($11.68).

* On sizable declines over the last few weeks and today (between -$4 to -$5), I covered my private equity shorts just now: KKR at $146.42, APO at $166 and BX at $169.48.

* I just purchased a small position back in MSOS ( at $3.46.)

* I covered my American Express AXP ($295.46) short for a profit on the gap lower this morning.

Gotta run to my golf club (I am president) for a brief meeting and hello!

I will explain on my return...

I have collapsed my Index common (long) and calls (short) for a profit.

No position now in the Indices.

And if you can follow the rapidity of my trading, God bless you!

I have covered my American Express AXP short for a profit on the gap lower this morning.

NYSE to close on Thursday Jan. 9, 2025 to honor President Carter.

Delta neutral on my Index common and short calls.

With S&P cash down by less than 70 handles I am scaling into short Index calls (against my long Index common) — a buy-write (taking premium for February on the increase in VIX).

- New York Stock Exchange volume is 20% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume is 23% above its one-month average;

- VIX up 14.73% to 18.40

make trax

18 minutes ago

On CNBC Santoli said that Bespoke noted two 1% days down during this year end period hasn't happened since 1952. In 1953, the stock market dropped 12% through Sept.

Cintas stock is collapsing this month, which is not a good signal for the broader economy.

I just purchased a small position back in MSOS at $3.46.

I am doing this based on my expectation of a possible bounce in January after tax selling is completed.

This is NOT an investment!

With S&P cash -96 handles, I have added to SPY and QQQ trading long rentals at $585.51 and $513.10.

Sold some TLT at $87.94 (moving to medium sized from very large)

Again, I would expect a reallocation out of stocks and into bonds at year end (tomorrow 4 p.m.) -- and on strength I will likely sell more then.

This is a trading rental.

On sizable declines over the last few weeks and today (between -$4 to -$5), I covered my private equity shorts just now: KKR $146.42, APO $166 and BX $169.48.

I plan to reshort on strength.

Buying more JOE ($44 limit) and ELAN ($11.70 limit).

With S&P -80 handles, I have taken a small long rental in SPY $586.99 and QQQ $513.99.

On a rally I will sell Index calls against it to lock in a gain (and premium based on the higher VIX).

Upside:

-PLRZ +58% (announces publication of U.S. National Patent application for Its innovative hydrogel nasal technologies)

-MRNS +43% (Orion and Marinus terminate agreement for ganaxolone in Europe; to be acquired by Immedica for $0.55/shr in cash)

-MBOT +14% (concludes 2024 by achieving key milestones culminating in FDA submission for the commercialization of LIBERTY)

-INGN +11% (receives FDA 510(k) Clearance for SIMEOX 200 Airway Clearance Device; plans to pursue a limited launch of SIMEOX 200 in targeted sites in 2025)

-ONDS +9.7% (note holder purchases $18.9M more in convertible notes)

-PGEN +8.8% (completes submission of BLA with request for Priority Review to the FDA for PRGN-2012 for the Treatment of Adults with Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis)

-VRA +5.6% (shareholder Fund 1 sends letter to the board)

-HSAI +4.6% (achieves milestone as the world's first lidar company to deliver 100K units per month)

-MHLD +4.0% (to merge with Kestrel Group LLC)

-KALA +3.9% (places 1.34M shares at $6.44/shr in $10.8M private placement)

-AMLX +3.4% (Gubra announces new collaboration with Amylyx Pharmaceuticals to develop a Novel Long-acting GLP-1 Receptor Antagonist)

-VRSN +2.5% (Berkshire raises stake in Verisign by 143.4K shares)

-FBLG +2.1% (Yorkville files to sell 41.3M shares)

Downside:

-LAES -9.4% (partners with WISeSat to Build Next-Generation Secure Satellite Constellation with Satellite-as-a-Service)

-AXSM -8.0% (announces completion and Results of Phase 3 Clinical Program of AXS-05 in Alzheimer’s Disease Agitation)

-LAES -7.2% (partners with WISeSat to Build Next-Generation Secure Satellite Constellation with Satellite-as-a-Service)

-CSLR -5.0% (files to sell $50M in stock)

-BA -3.3% (weakness attributed to Jeju Air airplane crash)

-MSTR -2.9% (discloses during the period between Dec 23-29th 2024, acquired ~2,138 bitcoins for ~$209M in cash, at an average price of ~$97,837 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses)

-IONQ -2.8% (IonQ and Oak Ridge National Laboratory unveil novel approach to scalable Quantum computing)

-NNE -2.3% (earnings, guidance)

-DJT -2.2% (Donald J. Trump discloses 52.9% stake; moves 114.8M shares to Revocable Trust)

-MAXN -2.2% (announces settlement agreement with Tongwei Solar Resolving Patent Infringement Lawsuit, effective Nov 30th)

Again, the SPY & QQQ rank 17th and 20th in premarket ETF Volume as of 8:24 a.m. ET:

Chart from 8:42 a.m. ET:

Happy Birthday, Cuz! May you stay forever young...

* Baseball is a metaphor to our capital markets.

* Sandy was a picture of perfection.

* They don't make pitchers like Sandy anymore and they don't make markets the same way they did either (and I remain fearful of market structure as a bonafide market risk in 2025).

May God bless and keep you always

May your wishes all come true

May you always do for others

And let others do for you

May you build a ladder to the stars

And climb on every rung

May you stay forever young

May you stay forever young

- Bob Dylan, Forever Young

On this day in 1935, my cousin Sandy Koufax was born.

What a delivery he had!

If I could only pick stocks the way he threw strikes!

Sandy is 89 years old today, and that makes me feel old!

In honor of his birthday I wanted to post this seven-year-old column I wrote about investing and baseball... and Sandy:

Nov 01, 2017 ' 12:57 PM EDT DOUG KASS

Lessons From the Baseball Diamond

"Its a beautiful day.

Lets play two!"

-- Ernie Banks (Chicago Cubs)

Tonite Dodgers Stadium will host the seventh game of the World Series for the first time ever.

Being related to Hall of Famer, Sandy Koufax, I bleed Dodger Blue.

I can't wait for tonite's game.

Over the last two decades I have written more than 50 columns noting the parallels between baseball and investing.

* Recommended Listening

* Playing Ball With Warren Buffett

* Rounding Third and Heading Home

* Forget Stocks Its Opening Day

* How Long Will The Joy In Mudville Last?

* Apple is Like Ty Cobb

* Who (Hu) Is On First!

* Never Fear Getting Back in the Game

* Practice Your Defense

* Take Me Out to the Ball Game For a Sense of History

Here is one of my favorites from more than nine years ago:

Loss of (Our Market) Innocence

SEP 9, 2015 2:34 PM EDT

"We live in a dystopian investment world whose markets -- currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds -- have morphed into an Orwellian backdrop of omnipresent government intervention and manipulation that is increasingly dictated by the quant community. (Who worship at the altar of prices and price momentum and are agnostic on values.)... In recalling this past week's action, it should be clear to most that the market mechanism is broken.

-- Doug's Daily Diary, Is 2015 Really 1984? (Aug. 28)

As I wrote in this morning's opening missive, "A Picture of Imperfection," the market's mechanism is broken.

The collateral damage ... that has come out of a broken market dominated by quants makes both trading and fundamental investing difficult in a market that has morphed into one without memory from day to day. Moreover, "artificial" and deep gaps or advances in prices -- another outgrowth of quants' dominance in daily trading activity -- also render technical analysis less useful.

Investment Lessons From Baseball

Over the past 27 years, I have made clear my passion for the game (and purity) of baseball and the investment lessons I have gleaned from the sport.

Years ago, in "Defense Drill," I pointed out that it's not your batting average that matters in investing and trading, it's your defense that counts. Back in 2012, in "America's Pastime Applies to Markets," I recalled that I have learned over my career that (baseball) history is instructive for investors. And back in the summer of 2007 — just before all hell was about to break loose — I penned a column titled "Take Me Out to the Ball Game for a Sense of History":

But, tonight, September the 9th of Nineteen Hundred and Sixty Five, Sandy made the toughest walk of his life I am sure because through eight innings he has pitched a perfect game. He has struck out 11 and he has retired 24 consecutive hitters.

You can almost taste the pressure now... Krug must feel it too.

There are 29,000 people in the ballpark and a million butterflies.

I would think that the mound at Dodger Stadium is now the loneliest place in the world.

A lot of people in the ballpark now are starting to see the pitches with their hearts.

He is one out away from the promised land.

You can't blame a man for pushing so hard.

On the scoreboard in right field it is now 9:46 p.m. in the City of the Angels, Los Angeles, California.

A crowd of 29,139 just sitting in to see the only pitcher in baseball history to hurl four no-hit, no-run games. He has done it four straight years. And now he has capped it with a perfect game.

Sandy Koufax, his name will always remind you of strikeouts. He did it with a flourish. He struck out the last six hitters. And when we write his name in the record books, the "K" will stand out more than "O-U-F-A-X."

-- Vin Scully, calling the last inning of Sandy Koufax's perfect game 50 years ago

In marked contrast to the markets' imperfection, perfection was found on a baseball diamond in Los Angeles as 50 years ago today my cousin Sandy Koufax pitched a perfect game against the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs pitcher, Bob Hendley, threw a one-hitter — making the game, arguably, the greatest pitching duel in history.

As a teenager, I listened to the game with a small transistor radio. I moved the radio around my bedroom in Long Island to get the best reception possible.

But, through the beauty of YouTube, you can listen with clarity to the last inning's broadcast by legendary Dodger announcer Vin Scully.

And here is the box score of the game.

Not My Father's Market

They don't make pitchers like Sandy anymore and they don't make markets the same way they did either ("in the good old days").

Call me old-fashioned, but in Season of the Glitch, I outlined why more volatility will emerge from our broken markets and in the past I have been adamant in my view that we should KILL THE QUANTS BEFORE THEY KILL OUR MARKETS.

There have been a number of factors that have conspired over the last decade to produce the current environment, which resembles less of a stock market than a casino — providing fertile ground for the disruptive influences of quants, risk parity and other strategies that pay little heed to balance sheets and income statements:

-- Regulation: Volcker Rule, Basel III, Dodd Frank prevented dealers from providing their classical role of ensuring market liquidity and stability — in part because of lowered allowable leverage and, in part, because of a mandated reduction in proprietary trading activities.

-- The elimination of the uptick rule in 2008: This will go down as one of the dumbest regulatory moves ever.

-- The proliferation and popularity of ETFs: These weapons of financial destruction(which rebalance during the day) have taken a much larger share of trading activity as retail investors have moved away from individual stock picking and toward the use of "these baskets." (As evidence, a disproportionate amount of stock trading activity occurs in the first 30 minutes and last 30 minutes of daily trading, when ETFs "rebalance.")

-- The decline in retail investor involvement

-- The electronization of the NYSE: This has eliminated the stabilizing impact of market makers and specialists. In the past, human beings have used common sense, today emotionless machines rule the day and have recently proven disruptive to our market system.

-- The steady drop in commission rates, which gave brokerages less incentive to take the other side of a trade.

There are some easy near-term solutions to the adverse impact of our Brave New Market — including the adoption of a tax on financial (stock) transactions and/or the reimposition of the uptick rule.

Unfortunately, the SEC is asleep at the switch and, for now, we have to play the hand we have been dealt.

Bottom Line

So, get used to spending more time in a trading mode and less time in an investing mode — and given the rise in volatility, keep an eye on your portfolio's value at risk (VAR).

My cousin Sandy Koufax controlled his destiny with his golden left arm.

However, to an important degree, we — as market participants — have lost control of our markets and our investment destinies.

It's a sad state of affairs that is not likely to be resolved any time soon.

***

Finally, let me add another column on my cousin that I really enjoyed writing:

Eight years ago I wrote A Picture of Imperfection about my cousin, Hall of Fame Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Sandy Koufax — comparing his pitching perfection 50 years earlier this month to the imperfect, quant-dominated stock-market mechanism that we face today.

As I wrote:

"In my recent column Season of the Glitch, I remarked that this is not your father's market -- it's materially influenced by quants and central planners. That makes it a model of imperfection (unlike my cousin Sandy Koufax, who pitched a perfect game 50 years ago today!)."

-- Doug's Daily Diary, A Picture of Imperfection (Sept. 9, 2015)

But something else important happened 57 years ago with Sandy — he decided to attend synagogue and observe Yom Kippur rather than pitch in the first World Series game against the Minnesota Twins.

Sandy's decision not to pitch on Yom Kippur, the holiest of Jewish holidays, still resonates today.

Don Drysdale pitched instead, but was hit hard and the Dodgers lost. Sandy came back from the Jewish holiday the following day and pitched Game Two, but gave up two runs in six innings as the Twins won 5-1 and took a 2-0 lead in the series.

Drysdale and fellow pitcher Claude Osteen won in the next two games for the Dodgers and tied the series at 2-2, then Sandy pitched a complete-game shutout in Game 5 to give the Dodgers a 3-2 series lead. But then the Twins won Game 6 to force a seventh game.

Sandy started that last game on just two days rest. Pitching through fatigue and severe arthritis, which would eventually end his career, Sandy couldn't throw his curveball and pitched nearly the entire game relying on fastballs instead.

But Sandy still managed to strike out 10 Twins en route to a three-hit shutout, winning the series for the Dodgers and a second World Series MVP award for himself. He was also named the Sports Illustrated 1965 "Sportsman of the Year."

Sandy started his pro career in 1955, but didn't blossom into legendary status until 1961. His stats were as dominant as any pitcher in the majors, but it was his final four seasons (1963-66) that earned his reputation as the modern era's greatest left-handed pitcher.

He pitched no hitters in each of those four years, and his average seasonal record was 24-7 with a 1.86 ERA. He also averaged 298 innings pitched and 307 strikeouts per season — striking out an amazing 382 batters in 1965.

But Sandy's most remarkable stat of that period was that he averaged 22 complete games per season. And in his last season (1966), his record was 27-9, with a 1.73 ERA, five shutouts, 27 complete games, 323 innings pitched and 317 strikeouts. These statistics are even more amazing when you consider that every pitch Sandy threw that year was made while in terrible pain from a seriously arthritic arm and shoulder.

I suppose there are lessons to be learned from Sandy's career about perseverance, achieving success and "playing in pain." Much like investors have struggled this year. But to many, the lesson he delivered by deciding not pitch on Yom Kippur was the greatest one of them all.

I wanted to wish all of my Jewish friends an easy fast -- and a G'mar Hatimah Tovah! ("May You Be Sealed for a Good Year in the Book of Life") to everyone, Jewish or not!

Only one.

I added to TLT at $87.07.

This sharp contrast in equity and bond returns over the last four weeks and twelve months — in which stocks ripped higher and bond prices deteriorated — suggests to me that a large asset reallocation to sell stocks and buy fixed income could be triggered on the last trading day of the year (at tomorrow's close).

Stay tuned.

Doomberg on the year in gas:

(49) This Year in Gas - Doomberg

The S&P Short Range Oscillator was flattish (day over day).

Now at -4.87% vs. -4.77%.