Palantir's Big Beat, SanDisk Surge, U.S. Success in the Strait

Zero Dark-Thirty. Middle of the night. Feast of the raccoons. Snakes creep along in my grass unseen. Coyotes run by in pairs. Maybe in a trio. A gator hunts in the pond, only his snout and eyes are visible. Oh, and we work, We rise and we work because that's who we are, that's how the doughnuts get made and that's how victory is developed. Easy? Chin up, Sport.... never said anything about easy.

Be that shining beacon of an example to that little one who thinks you do no wrong. Be who you were supposed to be. Too late? Can't be too late and too early at the same time. That's up to you. Ethical and moral purity. Strive, we must. We understand, so that we might identify both threats and targets of opportunity in order to adapt, so that we overcome and so we carry on.

So carry on, sons and daughters. Sometimes "X" does mark the spot and sometimes we do end up where we are meant to be. Other times, we have to get up, get off of our comfortable tail and go there. In the end, this is a choice. So choose. Let's get to work, shall we?

A Selloff?

I wouldn't get too excited. It's true. Equity markets traded lower on Monday after rumors spread that a U.S. Navy vessel had been struck by Iranian missiles and after the United Arab Emirates really had been fired upon by Iranian forces. This raised fears across global markets that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which has been fragile since the start, was indeed breaking down. U.S. Treasury securities sold off as well. The U.S. 10-year Note paid 4.43% by day's end.

That said, Treasuries have found a bid overnight as have domestic equity index futures. Why not? Pres. Trump said that U.S. officials were still holding "very positive discussions" with Iran that could result in real progress. Iran had said that they would target vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, however, the president had said that the U.S. would begin guiding ships through the strait and we know that two U.S.-flagged ships made it through the passage, but I would not say without incident.

Crude prices did not fall on Monday, but they are lower this morning after the U.S. Navy successfully protected those two vessels using destroyers, helicopters, fighter jets, drones and other assets. Iran's Revolutionary Guard did fire upon those two vessels with cruise missiles and drones. Apparently, much to the dismay of Iranian state media, which openly tried to mislead on Monday morning, the U.S. Navy had little trouble in defending itself or those two merchant ships. Destroyers effectively shot down any missiles or drones that had a chance at making any impact, while U.S. attack helicopters sank seven small Iranian attack boats (basically what is left of Iran's Navy).

South Korea Joins In?

South Korea is supposedly considering joining the president's "Project Freedom" after Iranian forces attacked a South Korean vessel anchored in the area, causing explosions and a fire. South Korea reported no casualties among the 24 individuals aboard the HMM Namu.

Rockin'

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) went to the tape with its first-quarter financial results on Monday evening. The results were outstanding. Sales grew 84%. U.S.-based sales grew 104%. The company raised guidance above expectations for both the current quarter and the full year. Still, trading at more than 100-times forward-looking earnings, the stock has traded lower overnight. The $10K Portfolio remains long that name and will cover those earnings in detail within a couple of hours. Speaking of the $10K Portfolio, Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) will report this morning ahead of the opening bell.

Marketplace

On Monday, the S&P 500 gave up 0.41% while the Nasdaq Composite surrendered just 0.19%. Some narrower mid-major equity indexes were hit harder. The KBW Banks gave back 1.74%, while the Dow Transports were slapped around for a loss of 4.82%. That was largely due to a 10.47 beatdown suffered by United Parcel Service (UPS) after Amazon (AMZN) announced the launch of Amazon Supply Chain Services that will open the company's full logistics stack to third-party businesses of all sizes.

Yes, shareholders, this is a direct attempt to disrupt the delivery business and a direct attack to take market share away from UPS and FedEx (FDX) . Yes, I am long Amazon and have been promoting that name for a while now. AMZN continues to break out from a $258 pivot. The Philly Semiconductors traded 0.57% lower despite a 6.31% run by Micron Technologies (MU) .

Show of hands, how many followed me in adding to SanDisk (SNDK) on the Friday morning post-earnings dip? I was able to add with a $1.034 handle, because I have to wait for my articles to publish before I can act. Hopefully, readers were able to get in even more cheaply. The stock closed at $1,255.86 last night and is trading around $1,274 overnight. I'd say a 23% run since Friday morning is pretty decent.

Breadth

Just two of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed out the regular session on Monday in the green. Energy (XLE) led the winners for obvious reasons. There will be some reversal for that group this morning. The materials (XLB) and the industrials (XLI) led the losers as the cyclicals (ex-energy) underperformed both growth and defensives.

Losers beat winners at the NYSE by a gnarly f ive-to-two margin and by a more modest three to two at the Nasdaq. Advancing volume took just a 35.3% share of composite NYSE-listed trade and a surprising 51.7% share of composite Nasdaq-listed activity.

Aggregate trading volume was higher on a day-over-day basis, across NYSE-listings, across Nasdaq-listings and across the membership of the S&P 500, but not significantly so. In addition, the technical impact of the increased volume on a "down" day is somewhat diminished by the majority share that advancing volume took at the Nasdaq.

The Chart

Readers will see that I have classified Monday as a "pause," which was necessary if we are to see a follow through day in support of the Day One reconfirmation of trend on Thursday and the extension of that upward thrust on Friday.

Above the chart, relative strength remains overtly robust, but not truly overbought. Below the chart, the daily moving average convergence divergence still supports the idea of further upside. This chart, from a technical perspective, is still constructive for the bulls. That's been my story and I'm sticking to it.

Quote of the Day

“What is success? To laugh often and much; to win the respect of intelligent people and the affection of children; to earn the appreciation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false friends; to appreciate the beauty; to find the best in others; to leave the world a bit better, whether by a healthy child, a garden patch Or a redeemed social condition; to know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived. This is to have succeeded!”

- Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1870

Economics

(All Times Eastern)

08:30 - Balance of Trade (Mar): Last $-57.3B.

08:55 - Redbook (Weekly): Last 7.7% y/y.

09:45 - S&P Global Services PMI (Mar-F): Flashed 51.3.

10:00 - ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar): Expecting 53.8, Last 54.

10:00 - JOLTs Job Openings (Mar): Last 6.882M.

10:00 - JOLTs Job Quits (Mar): Last 2.974M.

10:00 - New Home Sales (Feb & Mar): Last 587K.

4:30 p.m. - API Oil Inventories (Weekly): Last -1.79M.

The Fed

(All Times Eastern)

12:30 p.m.- Speaker: Reserve Board Gov. Michael Barr.

Today's Earnings Highlights

(Consensus EPS Expectations)

Before the Open: (CMI) (5.63), (ETN) (2.73), (OCUL) (-.32), (PYPL) (1.27)

After the Close: (AMD) (1.29), (QRVO) (1.21), (MSTR) (-27.33)

At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long OCUL, AMD, PLTR, AMZN, SNDK, MU equity.