Getting Real on Palantir: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Tuesday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Tuesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive open.

1. A fragile truce in the Middle East was under strain on Tuesday after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Gulf as they wrestled for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said in a social media post on Tuesday breaches of the four-week-old ceasefire by ‌the United States and its allies had endangered shipping and energy transit through the vital waterway. (Reuters) U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a U.S.-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year… (Reuters)

While the stock market is moving higher in premarket trading, and, based on equity futures, should do the same when trading starts later this morning, we'll have to keep an eye on Middle East developments. We’ll be looking to see if the ceasefire holds or if things escalate. Meanwhile, other reports indicate Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire targeted a number of southern Lebanese towns earlier today. We’ll continue to tread carefully.

2. With roots in U.S. defense and intelligence work, the U.S. remains Palantir’s core market. While much of the coverage of the company revolves around its government contracts, it is Palantir’s U.S. commercial sales that have been the star of the show. While U.S. government sales grew at a healthy 84% clip in the first quarter, commercial revenue grew by 133% to nearly $600 million. In the first quarter, analysts are projecting U.S. commercial sales to rise by 137% from last year to $605 million. (Barron’s)

It’s hard to quibble with more than 80% year-over-year top-line growth, even if Palantir’s (PLTR) commercial segment missed consensus growth expectations by just a few percentage points on a number that was well north of 100%. Total remaining deal value rose to $11.8 billion exiting Q1 2026, up ~$1 billion quarter over quarter. More impressive was Q1 2026 cash flow from operations of $899 million, which was larger than the $884 million in booked revenue for Q1 2025.

We’ll have more to say on Palantir’s earnings and guidance later this morning, but we would consider the market’s initial reaction as one that doesn’t reflect what is really going on at the company.

3. Key Nvidia Corp. partner Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. reported a 29.7% increase in April revenue, underscoring persistently strong spending on hardware essential for AI. (Bloomberg) AI racks are expected to maintain a continued growth trend. Based on current visibility, the outlook for second-quarter operations is expected to show both QoQ and YoY growth… (Hon Hai)

We track Hon Hai’s monthly revenue reports for a few reasons, and AI-related demand is certainly one of them. Underneath that almost 30% revenue increase, the company noted that Cloud and Networking Products revenue showed strong growth year over year due to strong pull-in momentum for AI products. It made the same comment for the month-over-month increase in Cloud and Networking Products, which showed significant growth driven by pull-in momentum for AI products. Computing Products were flattish compared to March, but Smart Consumer Electronics declined slightly month over month.

While we wait for Hon Hai to report its Q1 2026 results on May 14, the next April revenue to watch will be from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) , and the additional color those figures bring for overall chip demand.

Speaking of chip demand…

4. Apple Inc. has held exploratory discussions about using Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. to produce the main processors for its devices in the US, a move that would offer a secondary option beyond longtime partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co… Neither effort has resulted in any orders so far, and the work with both suppliers remains preliminary, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. Apple has concerns about using non-TSMC technology and may not ultimately move forward with another partner, the people added. (Bloomberg)

Despite the lack of firm orders, shares of Intel (INTC) are rising this morning, as the market deduces that even Apple (AAPL) and its famed supply chain are grappling with chip shortages, as AI and data center demand has pivoted production from other end markets. While we could see Apple once again work with Intel, it would likely be limited in scope and not for its proprietary Apple Silicon efforts. Rather, we’re likely to see TSM once again step up its capital spending plans, a positive for our shares of Applied Materials (AMAT) .

5. Following a pronounced run in Eaton (ETN) over the last six weeks, the company delivering a Q1 2026 top and bottom-line beat but only reiterating in-line guidance for the current quarter and 2026, will weigh on the shares. While the market contends with that, we’ll focus on what management says on this morning’s earnings call as well as 5-year capital spending comments from American Electric (AEP) and Duke Energy (DUK) this morning. We’ve seen other electric utilities up those spending plans, and that backdrop keeps us long-term bullish on ETN shares.

6. Crypto exchange Coinbase Global Inc. will cut around 14% of its workforce, citing a need to manage costs in volatile markets and amid advances in artificial intelligence. The company will be concentrating its staff around talent skilled in AI, while reducing layers of management across the business, Coinbase Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said in a post on X on Tuesday. (Bloomberg)

In addition to Coinbase (COIN) , PayPal (PYPL) , and BioNTech SE (BNTX) also announced job cuts as they contend with shifting landscapes in their respective markets. This serves as a reminder that earlier this year, Block (XYZ) , Nike (NKE) , Dell (DELL) , Microsoft (MSFT) , Snap (SNAP) , and Meta (META) all announced sizable staff cuts. These figures eventually make their way into the jobs data, and we have a fresh Employment Report out on Friday. That will be preceded by the March JOLTS report at 10 AM ET today and ADP’s April Employment Change Report tomorrow. As the market focuses on earnings and U.S.-Iran developments, we’ll add job creation to our list of items to keep tabs on this week.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: LMI Logistics Managers Index (April), Trade Balance (March), S&P Global US Services PMI (April), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (April), JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (March), New Home Sales (March).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) , AGCO (AGCO) , Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) , Cummins (CMI) , Duke Energy (DUK) , DuPont (DD) , Eaton (ETN) , GlobalFoundries (GFS) , Idexx Labs (IDXX) , KKR (KKR) , PayPal (PYPL) , Pfizer (PFE) , Rockwell Automation (ROK) , TopBuild (BLD) . PM - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , Arista Networks (ANET) , Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) , Emerson (EMR) , Interparfums (IPAR) , International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) , Lumentum (LITE) , Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) , Qorvo (QRVO) , Skyworks (SWKS) , Super Micro Computer (SMCI) , SuRo Capital (SSSS) , Veeco Instruments (VECO) .

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AAPL, AMAT, ANET, ETN, META, MSFT, NVDA and PLTR.