Bitcoin Won’t Bottom Until This Happens
Before I get serious about a bottom, I want to see real capitulation. That may mean even the most committed buyer finally cries uncle.
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Traders have been trying to figure out when, where, and why Bitcoin will finally bottom since it first broke under $100,000.
I don’t have the answer. Nobody does.
What I do know is that the bearish trend is still intact. Yes, selling has been getting cut off under the early February swing low near $60,000. But that alone is not enough. There is nothing in the price action yet that tells me the bears are done or that buyers have regained control. Buyers are responding to lower prices, but they’re not initiating at higher ones.
Meanwhile, the same people on Twitter/X and in the media who told you to buy Bitcoin at $100,000 and $90,000 are still talking. Only now, they’re telling you how lucky you are to buy it near or below $60,000. And if Bitcoin trades under $50,000 next week, the story will not change.
That’s the problem.
A lot of the loudest Bitcoin bulls are not traders. They’re believers. That is not an insult. It is just a different mindset. But before you let someone talk you into buying a stock or token in a clear downtrend, you should ask yourself one simple question.
Are you trading it, or are you believing in it?
I’m a trader.
I’m also intrigued enough by Bitcoin’s long-term potential that I still hold a small position in my retirement account. But that is not the same thing as blindly buying every dip and pretending risk management does not matter.
From a trading standpoint, I have no interest in trading Bitcoin until my usual setup returns. For me, that starts with the 8-day and 21-day exponential moving averages. I want price back above those short-term moving averages. I want momentum to improve. I want to see a higher high and a higher low.
Until then, I’m happy to watch from the sidelines. There are plenty of stocks to trade while we wait.
As for when Bitcoin finally bottoms, here’s how I think about it. Before machines replaced humans on the trading floor, we used to say a stock could not bottom until the most committed buyer got squeezed out, or carried out on a stretcher.
In Bitcoin, that probably means Michael Saylor needs to cry uncle.
And don’t tell me it can’t happen. Every bull and every bear has a breaking point.
I do not know where that happens. But if Saylor, or more specifically Strategy (MSTR), starts liquidating Bitcoin, that is when I would start looking more seriously for a bottom. Not because it would feel good. It would feel awful.
And that is usually the point.
At the time of publication, Byrne was long (IBIT).
