Why We See Downside Risk in the August Employment Report
Here's what the market expects in the August jobs report.
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Coming up this morning, we have the August Employment Report and if we believe some of the headlines out there it will not only be the event of the week, but, as we’ve discussed, it has the potential to alter the market’s expectation for rate cuts.
Despite data from earlier this week that indicated the employment market weakened in August, the market consensus still calls for 160,000 jobs to have been added, up from 114,000 in July.
We’ve shared our view that there is room for the market to be disappointed, but “bad news” for the economy is likely to be good news for the Fed doing more before year-end. Where things could get dicey is if the August Employment brings terrible news on the jobs front, which could reignite recession fears.
We’ll know much more once we’ve digested the report, and you can expect us to share our thoughts with you.
