Sticking With Our Palantir Price Target as Heads Turn on Wall Street

While others across Wall Street hoisting their price targets for Palantir (PLTR) shares to $200 to $220, we at the Portfolio are reiterating our $220 target.

Allowing us to do that are the substantial quarterly results delivered by the company on Monday night that also confirm the ramping demand for AI and cloud by the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) over the last two weeks. In that vein, the figures we touched on in our opening comments on Tuesday morning:

The record-setting $2.132 billion of U.S. commercial total contract value bookings, which rose 153% year over year
The 124% year-over-year and 27% quarter-over-quarter growth in the company’s U.S. commercial remaining deal value to $6.2 billion

Also adding to the notion that AI adoption is rising and usage expanding in the enterprise, government and other end markets, Palantir reported the following in its Q2 2026 earnings press release on Monday night:

Closed 220 deals of at least $1 million, 98 deals of at least $5 million, and 73 deals of at least $10 million
Closed total contract value (TCV) of $3.373 billion, up 49% year over year

The key with those deal size and contract value figures is they are all up compared to the ones reported for Q1 2026 with the TCV figure up 40% quarter over quarter.

The confluence of those contract value figures and bookings led Palantir to lift its 2026 top-line guidance to $8.15 billion to $8.18 billion from $7.65 billion to $7.662 billion after besting Q2 2026 revenue expectations and guiding the current quarter above market expectations. That new revenue forecast for this year, is also well above the $7.73 billion market consensus.

For the current quarter, Palantir sees its top-line coming in between $2.16 billion to $2.164 billion, up double-digits sequentially and more than 80% compared to the year-ago quarter. Doing some basic math, we can deduce Palantir current sees its Q4 2026 revenue around $2.4 billion. What this tells us in the company’s H2 2026 revenue should grow more than 28% compared to H1 2026. As AI adoption and usage widens further, there is reason to think Palantir’s outlook for H2 2026 skews conservative.

What we like even more than that revenue outlook is the continuing step up in the company’s margin profile, which has been rising steadily in recent quarters and based in inferred guidance for Q4 2026 looks to remain relatively steady despite that revenue jump to close out the year. This also tells us that free cash flow should be stronger in the coming quarters, adding further to the company $9.4 billion in net cash on the balance sheet.

All in all, it was a wonderful quarter and one that not only confirmed why we are tracking AI adoption and usage metrics and our decision to stick with PLTR shares in the face of their June slide, as well as the decision to scoop up more shares for the Portfolio on June 25 just over $107.

While some on Wall Street are now only turning back to a bullish stance on PLTR shares, we remain so. We will revisit our price target based on new program wins announced in the coming weeks and months, from a technical perspective, in the near term, we will want to watch the shares versus their 200-day moving average. Tuesday’s pop in PLTR shares has them piercing that 200-day level near $152.50. If the shares hold that level, it will become one of support and it would also mark the first time in several months that PLTR shares have successfully tested that moving average.

Tuesday’s pop is also poised to push PLTR shares into an overbought condition based on their relative strength index level. In our view, even though we remain bullish, that means looking for a smarter entry point and letting short covering that is happening on Tuesday fade. Heading into Monday night’s earnings report, per data from Nasdaq, 77.9 million PLTR shares were short, with an estimated 1.8 days to cover.

Remember, while we remain bullish, we also need to remain prudent.

A Word on Overbought Conditions

The market’s robust rally over the last few days has pushed a few other Portfolio holdings into an overbought condition, including Microsoft (MSFT). Should Treasury Secretary’s Bessent’s comment about a deal between the U.S. and Iran on Tuesday or Wednesday become reality, it has the potential to drive oil prices lower, putting the market in a more dovish mood. That has the potential to drive the market higher, and if that is what we see, some prudent register ringing may be called for.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and PLTR.