Liftoff on Potential Iran Deal and SpaceX IPO?: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Friday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Friday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive start to the final day of trading this week.

1. The US and Iran are edging closer to signing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the Group of Seven world leaders are set to meet next week, according to senior officials. A senior Iranian official indicated overnight that a deal is likely, said a G7 official, who asked not to be named discussing sensitive matters. Another G7 official said it will likely take the form of a memorandum of understanding, rather than a final deal… A second G7 official confirmed that there were signs that the US and Iran were close to signing but also warned that previous diplomatic progress has not materialized. (Bloomberg) Iranian media reported Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei as saying large parts of the agreement have been finalized, but Iran would not compromise on its red lines. (Reuters)

Oil prices have fallen below $90 per barrel, and U.S. equity futures are in the green as investor enthusiasm for a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz grows. We remain cautiously optimistic about the prospects for a deal, but our position is that the particulars of any deal matter.

We do have two concerns. First, that market expectations could be getting ahead of themselves, especially if only a deal framework is announced. Second, normalization of supply chains through the strait will not be an overnight event, which means lingering effects will be felt through the second half of 2026.

2. SpaceX has raised $75bn in a record-breaking initial public offering, propelling Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and AI group into the ranks of America’s biggest listed companies amid blockbuster investor demand. Trading is due to start on Friday after SpaceX priced 555.6mn shares at $135 a piece. The total fundraising could rise to $86bn with a $1.78tn valuation if underwriters exercise a so-called greenshoe option to sell additional shares. (FT) Pre-IPO trading in derivatives linked to SpaceX indicates a gain of anything between 30% and 50% for Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and AI company as retail investors flock to the much-anticipated listing. (Bloomberg)

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) have the potential to rocket higher today, and because it is the first money-losing AI stock to come public, the performance will be closely watched and set expectations for forthcoming IPO from OpenAI and Anthropic. With the offering being multiples oversubscribed and the retail allocation being smaller than targeted, the questions we’re pondering are when trading in the shares might begin and how much trading in them will occur today.

3. Lennar forecast third-quarter home deliveries below Wall Street estimates on Thursday amid a persistently weak U.S. housing market, sending its shares down 3.2% after the bell. Single-family ‌homebuilders like Lennar have been grappling with slowing sales as weak consumer confidence, job uncertainty and high mortgage rates weigh on demand. The resulting push for targeted incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns to revive sales, coupled with persistent ⁠inflation, have eroded profit margins. (Reuters)

Folks who track the Pro Portfolio know we have been careful to avoid publicly traded homebuilders like Lennar (LEN), given the exact issue demonstrated in Lennar’s margin performance. On a less than 3% year-over-year decline in homebuilding revenue, Lennar’s homebuilding operating margin dropped 30% to 6.4% for the May 2026 quarter. There will be a time to own homebuilding stocks, but with the heavy use of incentives, lingering tariffs, and the inflation picture that is a headwind to interest rates being cut by the Fed, we’ll remain on the sidelines with that part of the stock market.

4. The U.S. midterm elections in November are projected to cost $11.6 billion, a record for political advertising in any electoral cycle, fueled in part by surging spending in Senate races in Ohio, ‌Texas and Maine, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact. AdImpact’s projection, released on Thursday, would exceed the record $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential cycle and the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms and is higher than the $10.8 billion it estimated in September. (Reuters)

The coming midterm elections are going to be a battle, and that means political advertising designed to court voters for certain candidates while hampering or tarnishing others will be rampant. Given the accelerating shift to digital advertising from print, TV, and radio, social media and video platforms, like those owned by Meta (META) and Google’s (GOOGL) YouTube, stand to benefit.

5. The Trump administration declared a power emergency in the southeastern US as forecasters warned of dangerous heat that’s likely to stress power grids along the country’s east coast. (Bloomberg)

Folks like to focus on the rising demand for electricity stemming from data centers, but the majority of the existing U.S. electrical grid was built more than 30 years ago. It’s only received incremental investment since, and current estimates point to ~70% of the lines and large power transformers being more than 25 years old. That, along with rising demand from data centers, electrification across transportation and buildings, and manufacturing growth, is behind the upsized multi-year capital spending plans from electric utilities. That’s the opportunity the Pro Portfolio aims to capitalize on with our position in Eaton (ETN).

6. Nasdaq today announced the results of the June 2026 quarterly rebalance of the Nasdaq-100 Index® (NDX), which will become effective prior to market open on Monday, June 22, 2026. The following five companies will be added to the Index: Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB), CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV), Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS), Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB), Teradyne, Inc. (TER). The following five companies will be removed from the Index: Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR), Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation (CTSH), Insmed Incorporated (INSM), Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK), Zscaler, Inc. (ZS). (Nasdaq)

Reconstitutions can create as well as destroy demand for a company’s shares as index providers and institutional investors adjust their baskets. Our EPS All-Stars model strategy, which closed last night up 56.9% quarter-to-date vs. 15.9% for the Nasdaq-100, will face a similar reconstitution period on June 30 and July 1. With that move, we will step up the Pro Portfolio’s exposure another notch as we begin Q3 2026.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Prelim. June)

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: There are no market-moving earnings reports expected.

More Pro Portfolio:

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long ETN, GOOGL, and META.