Kevin Warsh Makes It Clear There’s a New Sheriff in Town

Let’s build on our comments about today’s Fed policy decision and the changes we flagged in the June 2026 updated Set of Economic Projections (SEP) by discussing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post policy meeting press conference.

Warsh laid out the formation of task forces to examine and update the Fed’s efforts in five key areas, strongly suggested the central bank will refrain from giving forward guidance, and firmly committed, several times, to deliver on its charter for price stability. We’re also likely to see combinations and adjustments to how the Fed communicates, which sounds like some changes to the SEP are coming down the pike as well.

The data collected thus far supports the penciled in rate hike for this year in the updated SEP, and at least in the near-term, it suggests more hawkish commentary ahead. Hardly surprising. To that we will also add the likelihood that Warsh’s multiple commitments during the presser to price stability could be a signal that the Fed will not be influenced by President Trump.

We would also remind you that the market already expected what we received in today’s SEP, although as we have seen many times, even though what’s shared matches what’s expected, there tends to be some indigestion.

We saw that “indigestion” during the market’s last hour of trading today, and that risk was part of the reason why we kept some inverse ETF positions in play. Next week brings both the May PCE price index and the Flash June PMI report from S&P Global. No doubt, the May PCE data will sing a similar song to other May inflation data. Given the timing of data collection for the Flash report, and the decline in oil and gas prices that started in mid-May and accelerated in recent weeks, that could be more telling.

As Warsh said, we have incoming data to watch and another Fed meeting in six weeks. That policy decision comes on July 29, which means not only a full month of June data, but the July Flash PMI report as well. To that we can add the movements in oil, gas, petrochemical and other prices in the next six weeks. Should we see those inflation pressures ramp down quicker than expected, we should see the same for hawkish language.

For us, that means keeping our nose to the data grindstone, keeping our eyes open for opportunities while side-stepping threats and other risks. Part of that means watching the technical setup for the market, holdings on our shopping list and ones we are contemplating for the Portfolio.

With Warsh’s press conference, it was very evident that there is a new sheriff in town. One who aims to restore Fed credibility when it comes to inflation, and as part of that, to update the sources of data it uses to make policy decisions. For some time, we’ve heard about the faults in surveys used to collect information that formulate closely watched economic reports, so this news is a good thing, in our view.

We look forward to what Warsh’s task force on this issue turns up. Better, more timely data would be great, but to be clear, we are not fans of overhauling data only to support a pre-determined decision. As investors, we follow the data, listening to what it has to say. We hope the Fed under Warsh remains in that camp with us.

All in all, if you paid attention to Warsh’s comments before he became Chair and those made during the vetting process, like the June 2026 SEP, there really weren’t all that many surprises.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio had no positions in any securities mentioned.