Big Swing Potential for Nvidia: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Wednesday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Wednesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive market open.

1. Xi called for a comprehensive ceasefire in the conflict in the Middle East, saying “restarting war is even more unacceptable, and adhering to negotiations is particularly important,” after US President Donald Trump threatened to resume strikes on Iran. (Bloomberg) Iran threatened on Wednesday to spread war beyond the Middle East if the United States attacks again, after President Donald Trump said he had come within an hour of restarting the military campaign… But the war has yet to deprive Iran of its stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium or its ability to threaten neighbours with missiles, drones and proxy militias. (Reuters) Trump said the current pause for negotiations was a “very positive development,” while acknowledging there were times in the past when a deal seemed close but nothing came of it. “But this is a little bit different,” (NPR)

We’re in a bit of a holding pattern on this front and while we wait to see what develops in the coming days, earnings from retailers and Nvidia (NVDA) will take center stage.

2. Target Corp.’s turnaround got a big lift after posting its best comparable sales growth in four years and boosting its outlook. The retailer has been struggling to revive growth after a pandemic-fueled boom and Wednesday showed that it’s making progress. Comparable sales gained 5.6% last quarter, tripling the average estimate as the chain raised its revenue guidance for the year by 2 percentage points to about 4%. (Bloomberg)

The headline figures for Target’s (TGT) April quarter paint a positive picture, but underneath we find its reported operating income margin narrowed to 4.5% in the April 2026 quarter, from 6.2% in the April 2025 quarter and matched the 4.5% reported figure for the company’s January 2026 quarter. This is likely to be called out on this morning’s earnings call as Wall Street analysts pepper Target’s management team about balancing market share gains vs. margins while contending with lingering tariffs and questions over consumer spending.

When looking at today’s move in TGT shares, folks should keep in mind the above headlines and ~15.5 million shares being short as of April 30. Odds are short-covering will help pop the stock today, but those comments about margins are more likely to dictate where the shares end up in the coming days and weeks.

3. Lowe’s Cos. said rising online sales and demand from professional contractors during Spring boosted its first-quarter earnings but it kept its full-year outlook unchanged citing macro housing market challenges. The chain’s comparable sales rose 0.6% during the period, but this came in lower than expected. (Bloomberg)

Despite delivering a bottom-line beat for its April quarter, Lowe’s (LOW) maintained its full-year guidance, calling for sales between $92 billion-$94 billion with comp sales flat to up 2% and EPS of $12.25-$12.75. The thing is, the math behind delivering a quarterly beat and only maintaining guidance means a subtle lowering of expectations for the coming quarters. That or the company is purposely being conservative. However, given renewed inflation pressures and mortgage rates hitting a nine-year high at the end of last week, it smells more like the former than the latter.

4. The Federal Reserve will release minutes Wednesday afternoon from an unusually divided and contentious April policy meeting. Investors will look for clues that officials could be moving closer to raising interest rates for the first time in years. The notes from last month’s meeting will offer the fullest account yet of how officials are weighing an inflation problem that has grown harder to dismiss. (Barron’s)

One thing to keep in mind as we digest the FOMC meeting minutes we’ll get today from the Fed’s April 28-29 meeting is the comments will reflect the data before the much hotter than expected April CPI and April PPI figures delivered on May 12 and 13. Headline April CPI rose 3.8% year over year, while the analogous April PPI reading climbed 6.0%. Tomorrow’s Flash PMI from S&P Global will reveal the degree to which inflation pressures have stepped up even further in May.

5. Traders are pricing in a $355 billion swing in Nvidia’s market value after the company reports first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, according to options positions ‌that indicate the market is still bullish on the AI giant while keen to protect gains. The chipmaker’s options imply a move of about 6.5% in either direction on Thursday, a day after the company reports results. That would translate into a swing of roughly $350 billion in market capitalization – more than the individual market value of about 90% of S&P 500 constituents. (Reuters)

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, by now we all know that Nvidia (NVDA) will be posting its quarterly earnings after today’s market close. Nvidia is expected to report April-quarter EPS of $1.76 on revenue of $78.75 billion compared to $0.96 and $44.06 billion in the year-ago quarter. Nvidia’s data center business is projected to make up the bulk of its revenue, bringing in an estimated $72.85 billion.

As we talked about earlier this week, given aggregate announcements for AI and data center chips, Nvidia will need to reaffirm its market position, and that means besting not only the consensus forecast for its April quarter, but do the same for its July-quarter guidance. The consensus forecast for that is EPS of $1.96 on revenue of $87.1 billion, but the range of those figures are $1.83-$2.24 and $82.1-$96.7 billion. Overly aggressive expectations, or the “whisper numbers,” have at times led NVDA shares to drop after reporting its quarterly results and guidance.

6. Goldman Sachs is expected to secure the much-coveted lead left position in Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker SpaceX’s initial public offering, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday. The position ‌refers to the bank that holds the most senior and prominent role among all the underwriters of an IPO deal. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman will be serving as the lead bankers on the IPO prospectus, which could be released as soon as Wednesday… (Reuters)

SpaceX’s IPO is expected to price in the first half of June and raise $75 billion ‌at ⁠a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion. That would make it the biggest stock market flotation of all time and carry hefty investment banking fees for both Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS).

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: MBA Mortgage Applications Index (Weekly), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Weekly), FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 PM ET).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – Analog Devices (ADI), Hasbro (HAS), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), VF Corp. (VFC). PM – Nvidia (NVDA), Urban Outfitters (URBN).

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long MS and NVDA shares.