Apple’s New iPhone Leaks: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Tuesday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading day. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive start to trading later on Tuesday morning.

1. Iran reiterated its determination to control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes ahead of fresh talks in Qatar on formally ending its war with the US. (Bloomberg)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up for the first time since Iran’s recent attacks on ships in the waterway, with more operators sending crude tankers into the Persian Gulf. Around 24 commodity ships including those that haul oil and liquefied natural gas, as well as bulk carriers, transited the strait in both directions on Monday, data from Kpler shows. The trend continued on Tuesday, with a supertanker re-appearing in the gulf, along with a number of smaller ships. (Bloomberg)

We will continue to follow peace talk developments and implications for the strait, but with more vessels crossing, we are starting to see Wall Street take action. Oil analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their fourth-quarter Brent oil forecast to $75 from $80 and their end of 2027 prediction to $70 from $80. Before the war, the firm estimated there was a 2 million to 3 million barrel per day surplus for the years ahead. As the Strait reopens, the firm now estimates a 4.8 million BPD surplus for next year.

Brent is currently trading below $73 per barrel, and as strait traffic continues to improve, we could see further downside to Morgan’s forecasts. That keeps us thinking the market is likely overestimating the number of rate hikes by the Fed between now and Q1 2027. Of course, that hinges on U.S. and Iran peace talks delivering a sustained opening and strait traffic normalizing.

2. Global stocks were headed for their best second-quarter performance in six years on Tuesday, while a resurgent dollar pushed the yen to a four-decade low and was headed for a fourth straight quarterly rise. (Barrons)

U.S. stocks are set to close out a blockbuster quarter with fresh momentum. Futures are rising this morning, putting major indexes on pace for their best quarterly gains in years. The S&P 500 is up 14% through yesterday, and the Nasdaq has jumped 20% — the biggest quarterly rallies for both since the second quarter of 2020. (WSJ)

While there have been some roller coaster moments during Q2 2026, the net result is it has been a strong one for the S&P 500 and an even stronger one for the Pro Portfolio, especially its EPS All-Stars strategy. We should remember, however, that we are only approaching the halfway point of 2026 and the second half remains.

What has the potential to affect the market in 2H 2026 will be part of our conversation in the Portfolio’s June Monthly Roundup published later this week. And with that in mind…

3. U.S. retailers have brought forward orders from China by four-to-six weeks to secure their inventories for Black Friday and Christmas holiday sales before expected tariff hikes later this year, shipping executives said… A universal 10% U.S. tariff imposed by Washington in February, after the Supreme Court declared some earlier tariffs illegal, expires on July 24, but it is widely expected to be replaced with higher levies. (Reuters)

Just like last year, we are seeing companies pull forward demand to avoid what could be put in place as the Whitehouse aims to rebuild its tariff war. It’s a reminder to us that, as we hopefully sunset the U.S. and Iran war dominating headlines, ones about renewed trade tensions could replace them. The size, scope and timing of those replacement tariffs will be something we monitor closely as will company comments about them.

Alongside those company comments, we’ll also be following what they say about tariff refunds and their plans to use them. On June 9, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) planned to transmit $40 billion into companies’ accounts by the end of June. At that time, it had paid out $23 billion of the $166 billion in International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs owed to companies.

4. Sensitive lists of components and suppliers, and photos of Apple’s upcoming iPhone 18 Pro models are part of files posted on the ‌dark web by the ransomware group that stole data from the U.S. firm’s Indian supplier Tata Electronics, according to documents and a source. The exposure threatens the carefully negotiated business of building the iPhone, which Apple assembles from a thicket of suppliers worldwide. (Reuters)

Every so often, we have a sharp reminder about the growing threat of cyberattacks and companies to protect their crown jewels. The iPhone is certainly one of them for Apple (AAPL), and the above only reinforces our view that cybersecurity to be a part of every investor’s portfolio. It is one of the biggest pain points and one that will continue to evolve, especially as bad actors embrace AI.

5. Palantir said Monday in a media release it has entered into a new strategic initiative with the chips giant to use the Nvidia AI ecosystem and Nvidia Nemotron — Nvidia’s artificial-intelligence models — to build custom models for the U.S. government. Under the partnership, Nvidia’s AI platform and Palantir’s critical infrastructure products will come together to provide U.S. government agencies with a secure “intelligent engine” for training and the deployment of AI models. (Barrons).

The above is not a new relationship between Palantir (PLTR) and Nvidia (NVDA) but is serves to remind investors about Palantir’s strong position with the U.S. government. Back in March, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders Palantir’s Maven AI system was to become an official program of record, a move that would lock in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across ‌the U.S. military. We see this move with Nvidia expanding Palantir’s reach beyond defense applications, which should pave the way for higher commercial contract value figures in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, comments about hyperscaler capacity issues probably means Palantir’s commercial business remains on a growth trajectory as well.

6. As alcohol giant Constellation Brands prepares to report results for the quarter ended in May, investors want to know whether its beer business has regained momentum… Alcohol demand has been weak for several years as economic uncertainty has made consumers more cautious about discretionary spending. Constellation Brands, especially, faces softer demand from Hispanic consumers, who make up roughly half of its beer customer base, as affordability pressures and concerns around immigration enforcement weighed on sentiment. (Barrons)

Beer consumption has been facing several headwinds from consumers drinking less amid greater health and wellness concerns to a wider array of alternative beverages and the growing use of recreational marijuana. There is also the competitive environment inside the beer market and the use of promotional efforts to win consumers. We’ll be interested in what Constellation Brands (STZ) has to say on that front and other consumer facing comments.

As we drink in those results (see what we did there?), we will also be putting Nike’s (NKE) quarterly results under the microscope when it reports after Tuesday’s market close. In addition to the usual items that range from China demand, the impact of the dollar, input costs given its material usage, inventories, and its direct-to-consumer strategy, we’ll also be listening for what it says about the competitive landscape in the athleisure market.

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April), House Price Index (April), JOLTS Job Openings & Quits (May), Cosumer Confidence (June).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: PM – Constellation Brands (STZ), Nike (NKE), Progress Software (PRGS)

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AAPL, PLTR and NVDA.