Unemployment Claims Drop to Near 57-Year Lows
Initial unemployment claims fall back under 200,000 for only the 8th time since 1969 and continuing claims declined to their second-lowest level since May 2023.
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- Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 12: 196,000 (estimate 207,000; previous 206,000)
- Continuing claims for the week ending September 5: 1,730,000 (estimate 1,779,000; previous 1,774,000; revised previous 1,769,000)
After bottoming at 189,000 eight weeks ago — the joint-lowest reading since 1969 — initial jobless claims had drifted moderately higher and then leveled off, but in the week through September 12 fell 10,000 to 196,000 (from an unrevised 206,000 the prior week), breaking back below 200,000 for only the eighth time since 1969 and sitting near cycle lows.
The four-week average, which helps smooth out that week-to-week volatility, fell 2,750 to 203,250 (roughly 36,000 lower year-over-year), a five-week low.
Note though the reference week included the Labor Day holiday which can introduce seasonal distortions, as can the start of the school year. Even so, the level remains well within the relatively narrow range that has held since November 2021. On an unadjusted basis, as ZeroHedge pointed out, the week saw the lowest level of initial claims since 1969.
Continuing claims (seasonally adjusted) in the week through September 5 (one week lagged) dropped 39,000 to 1,730,000 (after a 5,000 downward revision to the prior week), the lowest since January 2024 the second-lowest reading since May 2023. That also dropped it to the very bottom of the roughly 1.73 million to 2.0 million range that has held since mid-2023 — historically low, though not as low as initial claims.
The four-week average of continuing claims fell 16,500 to 1,761,250, remaining lower year-over-year for a 32nd straight week (down 171,500) — the largest such gap since December 2022 — evidence that while workers may be having a harder time finding a new job, the deterioration in that metric has for now reversed.
The 20-year pre-pandemic average for initial claims is 345,000 and continuing claims roughly 2.9 million.
“Claims continue to signal little layoff pressure — but further Fed tightening risks weakening an otherwise stable labor market.” — BBG’s Eliza Winger
