No Rest for the Traders

When the clock strikes two, three and four

If the band slows down, we'll yell for more

We're gonna rock around the clock tonight

We're gonna rock, rock, rock 'til broad daylight

We're gonna rock, gonna rock, around the clock tonight

- "Rock Around the Clock" Myers, Freedman (Bill Haley & His Comets), 1955

Approval for 24X National Exchange

Since we last met, 24X National Exchange officially secured approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission. The exchange is a startup backed by NY Mets owner Steve Cohen's Point72 Ventures fund. Planning to launch in stages beginning at some point in the second half of 2025, the exchange will ultimately operate 23 hours a day, and five days a week, taking just a one-hour break from 7 p.m. ET to 8 on weekdays.

While the idea of a new exchange preparing to compete for trading market share with the traditional homes where U.S. stocks have listed since the cows literally came home is no shocker. But the idea of 'round the clock trading without having to trade overseas will be something different for many traders, investors and broker-dealers.

It does make sense, given that markets for cryptocurrencies and U.S. equity index futures trade around the clock, that trading in equities would eventually move in that direction, especially since humans are now involved in such a small percentage of trade. The New York Stock Exchange, just this past April, started surveying investors for their ideas on around-the-clock market accessibility.

I don't doubt for a second that at some point, once 24X National Exchange starts taking some share, especially if that share is notable, that both the NYSE, owned by Intercontinental Exchange ICE and the Nasdaq NDAQ Market Site will eventually follow suit. Currently Robinhood HOOD and Interactive Brokers IBKR already offer 24-hour weekday access to US stock markets, but orders entered during off hours are either matched internally or end up in "dark pools."

While trading in dark pools is not frowned upon as it was long ago, it still at least in this trader's mind conjures up concerns over just what those involved are trying to hide and why. I may be old, but I cannot be the only one that still prefers to see more transparent trade reported to the tape by a public exchange. I am personally all in favor of round the clock trading without having to go either overseas or dark.

FTC's Hard Look at Microsoft 

On Wednesday afternoon, just after the closing bell had rung, Bloomberg News reported that Microsoft MSFT had come under a wide-ranging antitrust investigation by the Federal Trade Commission in the U.S. According to the piece, the FTC had sent a lengthy (hundreds of pages) request to Microsoft demanding detailed information in regard to company policy.

Parts of Microsoft's business coming under scrutiny are said to be cloud computing. software licensing, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence and how the firm bundles these services making it difficult for competitors to take share.

The FTC is specifically taking a look at rising subscription fees, exit fees for customers that might want to look elsewhere, and the fact that Office 365 software is incompatible with both Amazon's AMZN AWS and Alphabet GOOGL Cloud as well as other cloud services providers. Shares of Microsoft showed some weakness in after-hours trade on Wednesday evening.

Markets

Trading volume was very light on Wednesday. Curiously, U.S. equities showed weakness at the index level, but breadth was very strong. Treasuries showed some strength for the session after investors had taken a look at a deluge of macroeconomic data. On the positive side, the weekly print for Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 213,000, but October durable goods disappointed both at the headline and, more importantly, at the core capital goods levels.

As far as October Income and outlays are concerned, personal income was stronger than expected, while personal spending printed at consensus. On a year-over-year basis, both the personal consumption expenditure and core PCE price indexes showed the same rebound from that September bottom that the consumer price index prints had already made clear. While inflation had clearly accelerated from September into October, this did not come as a surprise.

The S&P 500 gave up 0.38% on Wednesday, breaking a seven-day winning streak as the Nasdaq Composite surrendered 0.6% for the session. The wealthy really did not rotate into anything else. Among smaller cap indexes, while the Russell 2000 was up a mere 0.08%, the S&P 600 and S&P 400 were down 0.07% and 0.34% respectively. Among industry-specific indices, the Philadelphia Semiconductors underperformed the markets for the day, at -1/51%. led lower by Micron Technology MU, which was down 3.54%.

Despite the weak performance at the headline level, breadth was not bad at all. Five S&P sector SPDR exchange-traded funds shaded into the green led by the REITs XLRE at +0.69%, while five of these funds shaded into the red, led lower by Tech XLK at -1.35%. The Utilities XLU closed the day unchanged.

Winners beat losers by almost 3 to 2 at the NYSE and by better than 5 to 4 at the Nasdaq. Advancing volume took a majority share of composite trade for names listed at both of New York's major stock exchanges. The catch there was the light trading volume.

Half-Day

Keep in mind that while U.S. financial markets are open on this Black Friday, hours are shortened, and trade should be rather light. The closing bell will ring three hours early, at 1 p.m. ET both down at 11 Wall St. and up at Times Square. Bond markets will close at 2.

There will be no significant corporate earnings released, and there will be no economic data released by government agencies, hence the data dump earlier this week. OPEC, however, will hold their normally scheduled meeting.

S&P Expectations 

I know, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is usually positive, and this year, at the index level, it was not, but on Wednesday, Adam Turnquist, who is the chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, made some keen observations heading into the year-end holiday season.

According to Turnquist, since 1950, the S&P 500 on average, has gained 1.8% from Thanksgiving through year's end, while ending that period in the green 70% of the time. When the market is hot coming in, this performance gets even better.

The S&P 500 is up 26% year to date and up 5% month to date. When the S&P 500 is higher year to date on Thanksgiving, the average gain for this year-end period improves to 2.1%, while the percentage of green closing periods rises to 75%. By comparison, also since 1950, the index has gained an average of 1% and been positive 63% of the time for all six-week periods at any point in the year, regardless of holidays.

Turkey, Stuffing & Pie ...

It's not just for breakfast anymore.

Economics (All Times Eastern)

No significant domestic macroeconomic data scheduled for release.

The Fed (All Times Eastern)

No public appearances scheduled.

Today's Earnings Highlights (Consensus EPS Expectations)

No significant quarterly earnings scheduled.

At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long MSFT, AMZN, XLU.