How $1 Trillion IPOs, From SpaceX to OpenAI, Will Affect Your Portfolio
The SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs could create market volatility.
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I’m getting some questions following a segment that aired on “60 Minutes” this past weekend. In that segment, CNBC anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin definitively stated, “We will have a crash.” Sorkin was promoting his book, called “1929.”
I’m not sure why this generated any buzz at all.
First of all, that segment was a rerun. It first aired on October 12, 2025. Since then, the S&P 500 has gained 14%.
Second, Sorkin is not and never has been a professional trader or investment advisor. He’s a business journalist, bestselling author, and co-host of CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Paul Tudor Jones
Paul Tudor Jones is a highly respected professional investor, with a successful career spanning decades.
Jones started trading in the commodities market in the 1970s, and founded Tudor Investment Corporation in 1980. He gained notoriety by predicting the 1987 stock market crash.
It’s been said that markets climb a wall of worry. I’m not worried about Sorkin’s comments, but Jones’ words hold more weight. What he said on a recent podcast should give investors food for thought.
Jones’ Wall of Worry
Jones recently appeared on a podcast called “Invest Like the Best.”
When asked about similarities between the market peak of 1999 to 2000 and today, Jones explains his thoughts in terms of supply and demand:
“The bear market of 2001 and 2002 were a consequence of all the IPOs of 1999 and 2000. And then as they unlocked, you just had this never-ending cascade of selling.”
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic
In 2026, the markets are bigger, and so are the IPOs.
SpaceX is due to have its initial public offering in June. After the IPO, the company’s shares are expected to be valued at $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion.
OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT, is expected to reach the market in September, and achieve a valuation of $1 trillion.
Anthropic’s anticipated IPO should be in October. The AI stock should be worth about $1 trillion after coming to market.
Those three names will make 2026 the biggest year ever for IPOs. Today’s markets are much larger than they were in 2000, but can they handle three potential $1 trillion IPOs in one year?
Lockup Expirations
When IPOs come to market, major pre-IPO shareholders must wait for the lockup period to expire before they can sell. This period prevents an oversupply of shares from hitting the market right after the IPO.
Based on current expectations, the SpaceX lockup period will feature staggered selling opportunities between days 180 and 366. Details on the OpenAI and Anthropic lockup periods aren’t yet available.
Based on the above, it’s safe to say that potential selling due to lockup expirations won’t be an issue until sometime next year. By then, more details will be available.
Market Capitalization
SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could soon have a collective market capitalization of $4 trillion. The S&P 500’s market cap is currently estimated at just below $70 trillion.
If you were to remove $4 trillion of market cap from a theoretical equal-weight S&P 500 all at once, its value would decrease by about 5.7%. The real index would decrease more if the selling focused on larger stocks, as it is weighted by market capitalization.
However, that’s not how it will happen. Capital for IPO investments can come from a variety of sources. Bonds, cash and overseas investments will also play a part in this process.
In other words, there’s no reason to anticipate a major market selloff due to the introduction of the three big IPOs in 2026.
Bottom Line
It’s likely that we’ll see some reallocation of funds from existing tech names to the new IPOs. It would make sense for capital to remain in that sector. Pulling capital from outside of tech could make funds dangerously tech-heavy.
Lockup expirations could create volatility in 2027, so we’ll need to revisit this topic at that time.
The entire market cap of the S&P 500 was less than $12 trillion in the year 2000. Today’s much bigger market is capable of handling a large influx of available shares. It could be a bumpy transition, with some selloffs along the way, but I wouldn’t look for a major selloff due to the three big IPOs in 2026.
