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Equities Look to Break 4-Day Slide

While headline CPI was in-line, core was hot.

Neil Sethi·Sep 11, 2026, 9:41 AM EDT

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Equities Look to Break 4-Day Slide

US equities are looking to break a four-day slide Friday despite a hotter than expected read on core consumer prices which has seen the chance of a September FOMC rate hike climb to nearly 90%.

While headline CPI was in-line (barely) at +0.40% from the month earlier and 3.40% from a year earlier, core (ex-food and energy) was hot at +0.29% versus the +0.2% estimate, though from a year earlier it did ease to +2.45%, the lowest since Mar 2021. That has seen FOMC rate hike bets continue to climb according to the CME FedWatch tool with September now at a nearly 90% chance for a hike and a second hike this year at 77%. 90 basis points of tightening is priced through the end of next year.

Bond yields though were little changed at the short end and falling at the longer end, and tech shares were getting a boost from Oracle Corp.’s (ORCL) report last night showing its cloud computing business growing faster than analysts projected.

Also boosting equities is a softening in crude prices following the International Energy Agency cutting its forecasts for oil demand this year, looking for a drop of 2.5 million barrels per day which would be the largest since the Covid pandemic, due to high prices and shrinking supplies. The Brent global benchmark was down around 3% although still on track for its largest weekly gain since July. Despite the drop in demand, the agency forecast a larger average global oil deficit of about 1.7 million barrels a day this year, compared with a shortfall of 1.3 million a day in last month’s report.

BBG also reported that Oman is aiming to get foreign ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Council and Iran together on Monday to discuss the future of the Strait of Hormuz, the first gathering with the Islamic Republic since war erupted more than six months ago.

The softening comes despite fighting between the Houthi militant group and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces intensifying as Reuters reports that the Houthis on Friday reached the strategic island of Perim in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, potentially tightening their grip on one of the world’s vital shipping routes. The ground advance in Yemen comes as BBG reports the Houthis continue to fire missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia’s southwestern towns, damaging energy sites. Axios reported that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman called President Donald Trump twice Thursday urging him to strike the Houthis but Trump declined, saying he has no plans to intervene directly for now.

Despite the softening in oil prices headlines this morning are full of stories on diesel prices hitting a new record, breaching $6 for the first time. An example from MarketWatch: “All the ways record-high diesel and rising gas prices are about to make your life more expensive — from commuting to grocery shopping.”

Later this morning we’ll get the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for September.

As of 9:15 am ET, the S&P 500 is +1.0% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index is +1.1%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 is +1.0%.

CPI comes in-line at the headline level (barely) +0.44% m/m, +3.40% y/y, but core runs hot at +0.29% vs

[Note the International Update is below the US update]

Note on all charts the colored lines are daily moving averages (the average price over the given number of days):

20 = green
50 = purple
100 = blue
200 = brown

The middle panel is MACD = Moving average convergence/divergence line, a measure of momentum that compares longer term and shorter term momentum to gauge if a move is strengthening or weakening. This is probably my favorite individual indicator (it’s also the favorite of Katie Stockton, a very fine technician).

The bottom panel is RSI = Relative Strength Index (basically what it sounds like) = measures the strength of the move comparing gains to losses over the given lookback window (I use the standard 14 periods).

SPX futures (/ES) – bouncing back over 50-DMA but running into uptrend line from March lows.

2-year yield – Holding around the highest since July 2024.

10-year yield – Easing back four basis points from highest since November 2023.

30-year yield – easing back five basis points from highest since 2007.

DXY US dollar index – was over but has fallen back under 200-DMA.

US WTI crude – down 4.5% from highest since May 21st.

Gold futures (/GC) – continues to try to hold 100-DMA

US copper futures (/HG) – holding for now uptrend line and 50-DMA.

US natural gas futures (/NG) – remaining in range since early July.

Bitcoin futures – fell out of its “bull flag” pattern before recovering.

Some pre-market company news:

From around TheStreet Pro:

Some other headline stories:

  • BBG – Greg Jensen, the co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, issued a dire warning about the risks and consequences of the artificial intelligence boom Friday on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. “Until the AI starts killing people, unfortunately, history would suggest we’re not going to do anything, but we are going to face that. That’s going to happen, and it’d be much better if we started dealing with it before then.”
  • BBG – Global tanker freight rates are surging to record levels with little respite in sight, a sign of the growing strain in oil markets as traders, shipowners, producers and buyers grapple with a drawn-out conflict in the Persian Gulf and increasingly complex workarounds.
  • RTRS – Anthropic broke up attempts to use its Claude ​models to develop biological weapons and carry out a suspected Russia-linked cyber espionage campaign against Ukraine, the AI heavyweight said in a report published on Thursday.

International Highlights:

Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 as of 8:20 am ET was finding support at its 100-DMA +0.6% after hitting six-week lows Thursday.

Germany’s DAX: +0.5%, U.K.’s FTSE 100: +0.6%, France’s CAC 40: +0.6%, Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.7%, Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.6%.

The broad MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index though ended -1.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei: -1.9%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -0.6%, China’s Shanghai Composite: -1.2%, India’s Sensex: -0.2%, South Korea’s Kospi: -1.8%, Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries: -1.0%.

Some ex-US highlights:

  • BBG – Britain smashed expectations with another month of strong growth in July, amid signs that artificial intelligence companies were starting to lift the economy.Gross domestic product rose 0.4% following a 0.3% increase in output in June, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday. It was much stronger than the flat reading expected by forecasters. The figures marked the third month in a row that growth has outperformed economists’ predictions.
  • BBG – Traders are now fully pricing three more ECB rate increases by October 2027, cementing the bank as the top hawk among Group of Seven central banks. Germany’s 10-year yield rose six basis points to 3.50%, the highest since 2009. The two-year rate climbed as much as 14 basis points to 3.21%, the highest in almost three years.
  • BBG – Prices for Japan’s corporate goods rose at a faster pace than expected in August, supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to keep raising interest rates to stem upside inflation risks.
  • BBG – Japan’s government bonds slumped on Friday, tracking a selloff in the US bond market after escalating Middle East tensions drove up oil prices. The nation’s 10-year bond yield climbed 7.5 basis points to 2.985%, and the 20-year rate rose seven basis points to 3.82%. Australia’s three-year yield jumped as much as 20 basis points to 5.05%, its highest level since 2011, while New Zealand’s two-year yield climbed 24 basis points.
  • BBG – The Bank of Japan will raise its benchmark interest rate next week with a follow-up increase by January, in a clear acceleration of the policy normalization process, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
  • BBG – China has set a goal for 70% of new cars to be electric vehicles or hybrids by 2030 and for autonomous driving to be deployed at scale, in the latest five-year plan for the auto industry.
  • BBG – Russia’s central bank held borrowing costs for the first time since June 2025 to contend with inflation risks from fuel disruptions and increasing state spending after political pressure to lower the benchmark eased.

As a reminder, as I mentioned in the Week Ahead: “I want this piece, and to a larger extent the intra-week pieces (morning, evening, and economic updates), to evolve in whatever way is most meaningful for readers here. In that regard, I highly encourage an open and robust dialogue. Please post or email comments, questions, pushback, or suggestions on what I write, and especially what you would like to see more or less of. I read all the feedback, and I promise to be responsive as the newsletter settles into its new home. If you do put a comment in on a post please be sure to put @NeilSethi in front”

Neil Sethi

By Neil Sethi

Equities Look to Break 4-Day Slide