IMHO: Bonds in ‘Danger Zone’
Bond prices (and yields) are entering the “danger zone.”
TLT (TLT), another low.
As I noted earlier, the equity risk discount is growing ever wider.
Position: None.
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 8:50 AM EDT
Daily Diary
Doug KassDATE:
Daily Diary
Doug KassDATE:
The Price Discovery Mechanism Is Broken
* Beware of more IBMs – individually and in the aggregate…
Today’s market is dominated by passive strategies and products that know little about value and everything about price.
Moreover, the gamification of our capital markets continues unabated – with the proliferation and popularity of zero days to expiration options and leveraged ETFs (sometimes 2x to 5x!).
Here is another market phenomenon that bears repeating:
Positions: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 8:35 AM EDT
Second-Level Shorting
I have added to my Morgan Stanley (MS) short (at $231.37) after the “better than expected” earnings per share release.
Here is the complete release: 2Q26 MS Earnings Release
I am employing second level thinking. Howard Marks: The Importance of Second-Level Thinking • Novel Investor
Positions: Short MS S
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 8:20 AM EDT
Subscriber Comment of the Day (And My Response … and More Responses)
billmc
37m ago
Cramer advised not bring overly concerned regarding current forward market PE vs in 1999 on his intro last night. My thought was that market concentration risk is the issue, not relative PEs.
1ReplyShare
Dougie Kass
35m ago
market structure (disproportionate role of passive strategies and products) when combined with the gamification of the markets (ODTE, levered ETFs etc) are the risks I see.
ReplyShare
Asaxelrod
2m ago
Cramer also berated the ETFs yesterday morning for causing dislocation across some tech based on IBM’s pre-announcement, the guy only pumps momentum and likes the ETFs when they are simply reinforcing that momentumReplyShare
Dougie Kass
just now
axe as i have commented he doesnt complain when momentum based investors (ETFs and others) bid up stock prices…
Positions: None.
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 8:05 AM EDT
More Tales From Nvidia: ‘Generative AI Is an Engineering Disaster’ (Issue #217)
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 7:45 AM EDT
It’s Chinatown
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 7:25 AM EDT
K-Shaped (in Income and Wealth)
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 7:15 AM EDT
On Market Concentration…
This phenomenon is ripe for a market structure “event”:
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 7:05 AM EDT
On the Semis…
What I do know is that 80% margins are never a permanent condition.
Semis are prominent in my high-beta, high-tech short basket:
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 6:55 AM EDT
Data Center Tweet of the Day
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 6:45 AM EDT
Tweet of the Day
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 6:35 AM EDT
Beware the Growing Equity Risk DISCOUNT
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 6:25 AM EDT
Howling About ‘Foreign’ Ownership of U.S. Treasuries
Wolf Street howls about foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 6:15 AM EDT
Software Tweet of the Day
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 6:05 AM EDT
Oscillator Is Still Modestly Overbought
The S&P Short Range Oscillator remains modestly overbought at 1.53% vs. 1.44%.
Position: None
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 5:55 AM EDT
Early Morning Trading (5 AM)
BY Doug Kass · Jul 15, 2026, 5:45 AM EDT
