After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 52% above its one-month average

– NASDAQ volume 55% above its one-month average

– VIX index : down 10.95% to 16.42

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

Thanks for reading my Diary today, all week and since 1998!

I hope you have benefited from my output over the last four trading sessions.

As I write, “I am often wrong and always in doubt.”

While I very occasionally have disagreements with some subscribers — as I did this week — I try my best in the Diary to not only to deliver hard-hitting analysis and views but to explain why I differ with those that are critical (as I did today and yesterday).  

I always feel an obligation to defend myself. But after a while if the same criticisms are made ad nauseum — that criticism is not defensible (in my view). I have a lot on my plate professionally and personally and at some point, that sort of debate is too time consumptive for me. 

I have absolutely no problem with constructive criticism from subs, contributors or anyone else.  However, like anyone else I have my “red lines” and I have my own personal definition of what constitutes an ad hominem attack. Those in disagreement with me obviously see things differently — which is fine with me and is certainly their prerogative.

Finally, under no circumstance I will never ask our editors to block the comments of any sub as it is their privilege and right to discuss their own views. Nonetheless, I simply will not interface with what I consider objectionable behavior in the Comments Section or elsewhere.

Enjoy the weekend.

Be safe.

Gary Marcus:

Accenture: Then and now, and how it may signify things to come

Position: None

The “reversal” in financials continues:

* JPMorgan (JPM) -$5.30 after being +$6. Wally Deemer confirmed to me a possible downside day if things stay the same 

* Short Morgan Stanley (MS) is about even on the day after being +$5 in the early going (added $228.47)

* Short Goldman Sachs (GS) is +$4 after being +$26 (added at $1,119)

* American Express (AXP) -$2 after being +$7

And so on and so forth…

Position: Short GS (VS), MS (VS)

Given the dominance of machines I have given the market a fairly wide berth in shorting this rally today.

I have steadily but slowly increased my index shorts.

Looking forward to the long weekend and the U.S. Open!

Position: None

Here are today’s things:

* Re-shorted SPY at $746.68 and QQQ at $736.53.

* Re-shorted GRNY at $27.49 and JOET at $45.57.

* Added to cannabis longs: MSOS ($4.69), MSOX (new position) and GTBIF ($7.49). 

* Shorted more MS at $228.47.

Position: Long GTBIF (S), MSOS (VL), MSOX (VS); Short SPY (S), QQQ (S), GRNY (VS), JOET (VS), MS.

– NYSE volume 154% above its one-month average; 

– Nasdq volume 105% above its one-month average; 

– VIX index: down 7.75% to 17.01

Positions: None.

I added to index shorts as the market makes a high for the day: 

* SPY $746.83

* QQQ $738.73

Proximate reasons: extended memory stocks (moving to Ludacris Speed!) and the outside day to the downside in JPMorgan (JPM).

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)

Alert.

Possible downside day for JPMorgan (JPM).

The shares made a new high (+$6) and are now -$3 on the day.

Position: None

I have a research call at 11 am.

Back before noon.

Positions: None.

Long MSOX (MSOX) at $2.94.

Position: Long MSOX VS

From Peter Boockvar:

Great job/Trying to maintain a 48% gross profit margin/BoE/KMX

I think Kevin Warsh did a great job laying out his thoughts. Not where he thinks monetary policy goes from here but how he will approach the incoming data and the ‘task forces’ he wants to create to help get outside opinions on crucial things, like how to manage their balance sheet from here. That said, he has half his colleagues that expect rates to rise this year and that is something he has to balance with whatever he might think should happen from here, which he of course did not reveal to us other than emphasizing “This committee will deliver price stability.”

Also, I can only imagine how many memes are going to be created on ‘task forces.’

With a heads up from my friend George Goncalves, head of US macro strategy at MUFG, yesterday was the worst day for the US 2 yr Treasury on a Fed meeting day, with the yield up 13 bps, since the March 2008 meeting when it jumped by 26 bps. That day the Fed actually cut rates by 75 bps in response to the Bear Stearns bailout by JP Morgan but was widely anticipated and reversed the decline in the two prior days.

As of this writing, according to the fed funds futures, the rate hike odds are now 100% for one increase by year end with a 50% chance of a second. That first hike is fully priced in for the October 27-28 meeting.

Having nothing to do with supply disruptions from the Middle East, we and the FOMC were reminded again that at least for now, the Gen AI data center buildout is inflationary after the WSJ reported yesterday that “Apple to Raise Prices Due to Memory Chip Crunch, Tim Cook says.” Tim Cook said in the article, “Unfortunately, price increases are unavoidable. We’re doing our best to mitigate the huge increases that are being passed to us, and we’ve been trying to shield our customers from the increases, but the situation has become unsustainable.”

The writer then said, “Cook declined to offer details on the timing or scale of the planned price increases, nor which products would be affected. Apple’s next major product launch is likely to be in September when it releases the iPhone 18 lineup, expected to include a new foldable iPhone. Price increases, especially for Macs and iPads, could come sooner. Apple raised the starting price of the Mac Mini last month in between launch events.”

Remember that Apple reported a 48% gross margin in Q1, a record high so they are certainly trying to defend that level and we’ll see to what extent they can. From a valuation perspective, the stock now trades at just under 10x sales, around a record high.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-price-increases-memory-supply-199845b1

Other central banks met today and as expected we got no changes from the Swiss National Bank (zero rates), the Norges Bank (4.25%) and the BoE (3.75%). In Asia, Bank Indonesia hiked again by 25 bps to 5.75% while in Taiwan, their benchmark rate held at 2.0%.

More on the Bank of England, 2 members wanted to hike rates while 7 voted to keep them unchanged. In their statement they said “The impact of the energy shock on the UK economy remains uncertain. Monetary policy cannot influence energy prices but is being set to ensure that the economic adjustment to them occurs in a way that achieves the 2% inflation target sustainably.”

The 2 yr gilt yield is higher by 6 bps today, following what went on in the US, but is coming off its highs of the day by 2 bps as it seems that the BoE is on hold for a bit. The pound is at the lows of the day post statement.

Also out of the UK, employment in May rose 2k, which was much better than the feared loss of 25k and April was revised up to a loss of 53k from the initial print of down 100k.

CarMax stock fell 9% yesterday as comps were down .8% y/o/y and gross profit per unit was lower too and this is what they said of note on their call:

“we feel really good about how we are viewing the consumer that’s on our books, our receivable base, how we have reserved…This is our third quarter in a row where we really kind of hit the losses as expected. The consumer, overall, I think you can see in the industry they are continuing to be pressured by overall inflation.”

“If you look at delinquency rates among credit cards, auto, all of that, it is higher, but again, we feel like we have an excellent handle on that, and that’s captured.”

* SPY (SPY) $747.84

* QQQ (QQQ) $737.13

Positions: Short SPY S QQQ S

* Being wrong-footed in market view (and basically net short throughout most of the period) I had to find a way to deliver positive investment returns…

I wanted to revisit and expand on my comments yesterday on why I actively trade the indices… on almost a daily basis (sometimes multiple times a day!).

Most of my observations below are self explanatory. I am transparent in these trades because we have a body of subscribers that trade actively, many trade in non-taxable accounts (foundations, IRAs, pension plans, offshore, etc.), some employ tax-deferral strategies (to offset short-term trading gains) and for other reasons.

To me, I want to capture investment returns always. As I mentioned, to state the obvious, the best positioning would have been to be bullish over the last 2 1/2 years and to buy and hold a portfolio of large-cap tech.

But I held to a view, take ownership — as we can’t rewrite history.  

Unlike many, I admit to being wrong (often) and I am always in doubt. 

When I have been predominantly wrong (except when I went long briefly — for a few weeks — in three selloffs), as I have been since early 2024, and I am positioned modestly short, I need a strategy to return profits to my investors.

I do so by trading the indices, in particular, actively.

There has ben almost 29 months since January 2024. Despite being positioned wrong-footed, some excellent individual long-term investment shorts and my short-term trading (in the indices) resulted in profitable returns in 28/29 monthly reporting periods  — with the only drawdown of -0.22% in the down month.

If you like, put that in ChatGPT and figure out the odds of returning profitable investment returns (being positioned net short throughout most of the period). It leads to an interesting outcome. 

More Comments About Short-Term Trading

From the Comments Section:

Dougie Kass

On the issue of short term trading…

The other point I want to share is that our subs come in all stripes, temperments and objectives. No individual sub is alike as timeframes and risk profiles and appetites are all different.

Contributors, like myself, serve all of our subs.

To state the obvious, it is preferable to call the market right. I have not over the last three years – in which a buy and hold strategy was ideal (in hindsight) and preferable, incurring no tax liability.

That is elementary and tautological.

So being wrong I have tried (and succeeded) in taking a trading approach to engineer profits while being wrong on market direction. 

We do have many subs that are buy and hold oriented- but based on my interaction, that is likely for only a portion of their portfolios. It seems they nearly all trade outside of their long term investments. 

Among the things they miss is that there are a large amount of subs who have non taxable accounts (IRA, pension plans,etc.) and there are foundations, etc. that are not directed by tax consequences. Many of us manage other people’s money. In my hedge fund, the majority of my investors are not taxable. Those subs who are critical fail to understand this. Additionally there are tax avoidance strategies that can offset short term gains.

As I stated in today’s comments (and all week), there are a number of subs who are griping and growing impatient with cannabis stocks’ underperformance. They are unwilling to hold (and accumulate) weak sectors, yet seem to have long term horizons.

So, everyone is different.

We also have a large portion of our sub base that are trading oriented.  And if we look at the proliferation of leveraged ETFs and ODTE options that have an investment timeframe of less than 24 hours – that is a large and rapidly growing population of general interest by parties in short term trading. 

Finally, as I have stated repeatedly in the past I created a Best Ideas List that has had longs (and shorts) on for many years.  I have said repeatedly that if you dont agree with my negative views onthe market it is a good menu to select longer term investments.

Position: None

BY Doug Kass · Jun 17, 2026, 2:10 PM EDT

Great stuff from Sarge this morning:

Sarge’s Corner…

Trying not to sound arrogant, my belief is that what follows is why I have been able to go for as long as I have without the need for an employer. Yes, it’s a lot of work. That said, leaving Wall Street voluntarily for good now more than 10 years ago and not having to answer to morons is its own reward. I never expected to have some of my best years after heading out on my own and trading only my family’s money, but here we are. Discipline and a “tried and true” method have been my keys to success.

Trading

Disciplinary components that improve the probability for success across all positions for those taking a serious approach….

• Target Price (required)
• Pivot (sure helps)
• Add Levels (encouraged)
• Panic Points (required)

Note: Risk management beats stock picking more often than not.

Investing

What your author likes to see when setting up an investment….

• Economic story makes sense through the prism of policy.
• Fundamental story supports the idea of multiple expansion.
• Technical story supports either trend continuance or trend reversal.

Positions: none.

Upside:

-WPRT +31% (signs development agreement for Cespira HPDI hydrogen integration for Volvo 13-liter engine)

-BFLY +19% (details Midjourney scanner technology under co-development deal)

-UUUU +17% (Pentagon signs $725M loan commitment with Energy Fuels)

-RUM +16% (renames Cloud unit Quake AI and parent RUM Group Inc. after Northern Data acquisition)

-SWBI +14% (earnings, guidance)

-HIVE +13% (to acquire 32 MW data center in Boden, Sweden)

-INTC +9.3% (Intel 18A-P enters risk production; Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its chips in America)

-LEU +9.1% (signs LOI to supply HALEU to Oklo for up to five Aurora powerhouses)

-MRVL +6.0% (hearing price target raised at KeyBanc)

-QUBT +5.9% (receives purchase order and framework agreement from Planck Dynamics for NeuraWave systems)

-JEF +3.7% (UBS Cuts JEF to Neutral from Buy, price target: $67 from $59)

-QNRX +3.5% (forms Japan subsidiary for QRX003 Netherton Syndrome)

-OKLO +3.3% (LEU signs LOI to supply HALEU to Oklo for up to five Aurora powerhouses)

-QBTS +2.5% (plans gate-model quantum computing simulator)

Downside:

-NVCR -16% (fails to improve overall survival in TRIDENT Phase 3 for early TTFields start in newly diagnosed glioblastoma)

-ACN -14% (earnings, guidance)

-LEGN -12% (prices 7.7M shares at $29.35/share)

-KR -7.0% (earnings, guidance)

-AAMI -6.9% (Holder Paulson & Co. files to sell 1.9M shares)

-IBM -3.8% (lower in sympathy with ACN)

-SPCX -2.8% (profit taking off momentous IPO)

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Treasury Auctions

11:00 a.m.: Treasury announces a 3 and 6 month bill auction;and a 6-Week Bill Auction; 
11:00 a.m.; Treasury note announcement; 
11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $70B 4 and $75B 8 Week Bill Auction; 
1:00 p.m.: Treasuryhosts a $24B 5-Year TIPS Auction;
2:00 p.m.: Treasury intl cap flows; 
4:00 p.m.: Total Net TIC Flows; Net Long-Term TIC Flows (April)

Economic Calendar

Positions: None.

On Wednesday afternoon (near the lows) I established longs in Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). 

I know Amazon reasonably well, not so much Microsoft (though I was prone to buy it based on Bill Ackman’s recent buy (at much higher levels) in his new publicly traded vehicle (PSUS).

While I have successfully trafficked/traded Amazon and Microsoft on several occasions — my avoidance of the stocks reflected a generally negative view that those two constituents of Mag7 (as with the others) had morphed from a capital light to capital intensive. That metamorphosis has execution risk, increases the likelihood of lower share buybacks and provides less certainty to the profit stream.

As noted in my Diary yesterday and this morning, MAG7 in the aggregate have been awful performers — and have likely been a source of funds to buy memory and semi stocks.

I aggregated sell-side research reports on both companies last night (as I spent some portion of the evening trading (SPY)/(QQQ) and concluded in the case of MSFT the above challenges are being exacerbated by continued changes in their AI strategy and positioning. Though I am not an expert on Microsoft, from my perch, MSFT’s estimates might be lowered. 

I am not sure, however, why Amazon has been so weak, but I decided to bale on that as well. I plan on continuing to do my research on the name to get more informed and current. 

From Comments Section last night:

Dougie Kass
11h ago

Sold my AMZN $239.88 adn MSFT $383.06

From earlier:

Loaded Up on Microsoft and Amazon

I bought a ton of MSFT at $378.05 and AMZN at $237.01 in the last 15 minutes of the day.

Position: Long MSFT (M), AMZN (M)

By Doug Kass · Jun 17, 2026, 4:03 PM EDT

Dougie Kass
11h ago

I am not sure I understand the after market ramp = s and p futures +64 and nasdaq futues +401

*taking profits in msft and amazn buys

shorting spy $745.81 and qqq  $732.40

Position: None

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume  1% below its one-month average 
– NASDAQ volume 13% above its one-month average
– VIX index:  up 11.88% to 18.36

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Positon: None

With the catapult higher in stock futures I resold stock futures at around 4:10 AM:

* SPY $746.71
* QQQ $734.45

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator moved further into overbought at 1.99% vs. 1.64%.

Position: None