In this column, I’m going to hit on several items, including my take on the Iran deal, my view on rates and the new boss at the Fed, my stock pick Intel, and why stocks could see a boost as we approach the 250th birthday party of the U.S. — if Pres. Trump has his way.

Let’s dig in:

Fragile Iran Deal

The fragility of the deal with Iran was on display over the weekend for everyone to see. This seems like a Band-Aid solution to get oil flowing rather than a true mutual understanding. We are deciding how serious Iran is to committing to terms we want. At the same time, we are also determining if we are willing to re-escalate….

The Fed and Rates

I want to reiterate that I think Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did an excellent job at his first meeting. Rather than coming across as dovish and risking losing control of the long end of the yield curve, he not only hammered home on inflation (squarely placing the blame on prior decisions by the Fed, among other things), but he also created task forces, which by and large made sense. If I could get picked to go on any task force, I would beg and plead to be allowed to be part of the Data Sources task force. As anyone who has read my work for a long time, you know I like to focus on “garbage in, garbage out”. We make so many important decisions on data that seems jumbled together at best, and outright wrong at worst. My favorite targets include the data collection for non-farm payrolls, the birth/death model, owners equivalent rent in housing.

Again, we are moving to neutral on rates, rather than being bearish. Warsh removed some near-term tail risk to the long end.

The 250^th Celebration

This president is a showman, who likes a spectacle and the 250^th anniversary is real, important, and is highly likely something that the president wants to go down in history for.

We can argue over my choice of polling data, but most say the same thing.

I expect the president to do a lot between now and then to boost markets (and maybe the economy, though it is easier to boost markets in real-time).

It is his nature.

I also think his attention and focus have been on Iran, and this administration tends to do the most where the president’s attention is.

Intel Boost?

And we can’t talk about the 250th anniversary party without talking about American chip maker, Intel (INTC). This was my top pick on TheStreet Pro for 2026. My argument was basically that I find it difficult to see how the government doesn’t try to support the taxpayers’ investment in this company. My thesis went well beyond that, but that is the part that we wanted to highlight.

On Thursday, the president put out a Truth Social post linking Apple (AAPL) to using Intel more. I am not sure either company confirmed it, but with only two weeks to go before the 250^th anniversary, maybe this sort of “pump” by the president is going to be the norm?

Also, look for support in the energy generation space, chips, AI, rare earths and critical minerals (processing, refining, smelting), ship building, etc. Those are areas we need under my Production for Security theme.

Finally, procedural security is going global. Europe is nearing a “Whatever it Takes” moment. The framework makes it more difficult, but it is starting. Canada is also entering this phase of national consciousness.

Bottom Line

The outlook for rates is more benign than at any time in the past few months. I’m not yet bullish, but certainly not bearish here.

Look for the president to make announcements in the coming days as he almost certainly wants stocks to be at an all-time high and his ratings to be higher, as we celebrate America’s 250^th anniversary of winning Independence.

At the time of publication, Tchir had no position in any security mentioned.