New Moderna Short Target After Hantavirus Vaccine News

Almost two weeks ago, Moderna (MRNA)  (yes, that Moderna, of Covid vaccine fame), reported the firm's first quarter financial results. 

For the three-month period, the firm reported "earnings" of -$3.40 (GAAP) per share, which, incredibly, was much better than Wall Street expected. Revenue grew nicely, though, from the year-ago period. Moderna had generated $389 million in revenue over those three months, up 260% from the year earlier comparison. 

The business is booming globally, compared to the firm's U.S. business. The Massachusetts-based company drove just $78 million of that $389 million in its home nation. Incredibly, outside of the U.S., net product sales increased sharply due to higher COVID vaccine sales as a result of deliveries under long-term strategic partnerships with government entities. Hmm. I would not have thought that.

Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately), the sharp acceleration in sales was not expected to be sustainable. The firm reiterated the 2026 framework and key assumptions, stating, "we expect total revenue to grow up to 10% in 2026." 

The guidance also "assumes no revenue from our flu vaccine or mCOMBRIAX." Just an FYI: mCOMBRIAX is Moderna's and the world's first flu-plus-COVID-19 combination vaccine to receive marketing authorization.

Monday Morning 

Shares of Moderna are trading higher for a second consecutive market session. Apparently, Moderna is in the early stages of developing an mRNA hantavirus vaccine, though any expected availability could be years into the future. Hantavirus has been all over the news cycle of late amid the outbreak of the virus on the cruise ship MV Hondius. This outbreak has killed three people and infected at least several others who have traveled around the planet. 

NBC News reportedly stated that prior efforts to develop a hantavirus vaccine have stalled, largely because outbreaks tend to be rare and when they do occur, the illness moves quickly. Additionally, when outbreaks occur in poor countries, big pharma is less likely to invest. 

Bottom line? Any help for the firm coming from a brand-new vaccine that is only in its early stages is likely far off and this market activity is probably the result of algorithmic momentum. If there were still humans at the point of sale, they would not be so easily fooled. 

The Chart​

I would not be surprised at all if MRNA had just formed a double-top pattern of bearish reversal. ​I could be wrong. I would not bet the farm, as we do not know how much worse this hantavirus might get and, if it does get bad, the algos running this stock back and forth could do anything. 

For now, I see MRNA as a short and I see the $44 level as the pivot. This means that I see $40, which was the February 11 low, as a potential target for such a play.

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 At the time of publication, Guilfoyle had no positions in any securities mentioned.