Intel’s Chart Puts Out Some Bullish Signals as CEO Stocks Up
CEO Lip-Bu-Tan just bought nearly $10 million in common stock. Let’s check the charts, that $20 billion in ‘dilutive’ equity that just went public and my take on the stock.
You've reached your free article limit
You've read 0 of 1 free Pro articles.
On Friday, in a Form 4 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Intel (INTC) CEO Lip-Bu-Tan disclosed that he had purchased 105,263 shares of INTC common stock at $95.00 per share for a total transaction value of $9,999,985.00. The transaction occurred on Aug. 11, 2026. Following that purchase, Lip-Bu Tan’s total beneficial ownership in Intel grew to 1,331,640 shares. The Sarge-folio added to its far smaller long position last week as well.
Last Week…
Sarge-folio holding Intel offered $20 billion in “dilutive” equity to the public last week. What began as a $15 billion plan announced a couple of weeks ago wound up growing to $20 billion, with the company ultimately selling 210,526,315 shares of common stock at $95 a piece. Investor appetite was significant. The offering apparently drew more than $100 billion in demand, seriously oversubscribing availability, which is why Intel was able to raise more cash than initially planned.
Intel had said the $19.7 billion in cash raised will go toward general corporate purposes, including capital spending and working capital. In plain English, that means expanding on the companies AI chip design and foundry services businesses. Readers likely recall that during Intel’s earnings call the it had raised full year 2026 capital expenditure guidance to more than $20 billion, with an expectation for further increased spending in 2027. This is very likely why Intel chose to dilute the equity rather than add to the firm’s debt load.
Thoughts From Bank of America…
Last week, Bank of America estimated that Intel’s $20 billion equity offering would result in rough 4%-5% earnings per share dilution on a higher share count, but that this still “a good leading indicator” of management’s increasing foundry conviction. Bank of America views the raise as net positive overall given foundry scale and customer conviction driving longer term top-line and operational efficiency, more than offsetting modest near-term EPS dilution.
The analyst involved here is one of the very best on Wall Street. Vivek Arya covers Intel for Bank of America. Arya reiterated a “Buy” rating on INTC last week but lowered the price target to $145 from $160, reflecting modest earnings per share dilution and the recent re-rating in AI-compute peer multiples. That said, Arya had a $135 target on these shares as recently as mid-June. Arya is rated at five stars out of five by TipRanks. He has compiled a 60% success rate over two years while generating an average return of 40.9%.
Reading the Chart
Readers will see that through this past spring into very early July; the shares of Intel developed a “rising wedge” of bearish reversal that actually worked to perfection. The share price peaked on June 30. The selloff that followed ran for much of the summer and saw the stock lose its 21-day exponential moving average as well as its 50-day simple moving average in the process. That was where the swing crowd likely bailed and the pros likely reduced some exposure.
What I see having developed into the present is what looks to be an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern of bullish reversal with a $103 pivot. The inverse head-and-shoulders is just about complete, and the shares are wrestling with that pivot point as we speak. The swing crowd may be behind current support, but the stock needs to take back that 50-day line in order to get the pros fully involved.
Looking at the indicators that I most often use, Relative Strength has rallied to the neutral line and pretty much stopped there. That offers us little. Below the chart, however, the daily moving average convergence divergence is starting to look much more bullish. The histogram of the nine-day exponential moving average has found its way back above the zero-bound and has held it ground. In addition, the 12-day exponential moving average appears to have moved back above the 26-day EMA and held that move. These are bullish signals. That signal would be amplified if both the 12-day and 26-day lines could move into positive territory together with the black line maintaining its lead over the gold line.
Target Price: $128
Pivot: $103 (Then the 50-day SMA)
Add: Down to the 200-day SMA
Panic: Loss of the 200-day SMA
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long INTC equity.
