Congrats, Class of 2026. Your Timing is Terrible. Mine Was, Too.

Story Highlights:

• The economy has been terrible at every major turning point in my life.
• I’ve made the best of it, despite terrible timing.
• It’s a tough market for new college grads, but you should remain optimistic.

Congratulations, Class of 2026. But Your Timing is Terrible

If you’re graduating from college this spring, I’m sorry, you’ve got terrible timing.

But also, congratulations. I’ve had terrible timing my entire life, as you’ll see below, and you will make the best of it, and you will thrive. I know it.

I don’t need to tell you that you’re graduating into a difficult job market. According to the NY Fed, the unemployment rate for recent grads, aged 22-27, is 5.6%. That’s about double the 3.1% rate for all college grads. Many of you will be underemployed, too, earning less than you deserve and not using the skills that you gained in college. You’ll probably also get paid less than you should. Salaries for your group are down 5% since 2023 and unchanged in a decade.

Sadly, it’s not supposed to get any easier. AI will make many of those entry-level jobs that you’re gunning for obsolete.

Once you get a job, you’ll quickly learn that, year after year, employees are asked to do more with less. AI will exacerbate the trend. Sorry.

The good news is that in the past, technology has ushered in a wave of new and better jobs. And I want to share my funny story, so that you can see that, as tough as these times are, every generation has gone through difficult times. That will never change. And that’s why you should be optimistic.

My Timing is Terrible

The chart below says it all. There’s been a recession, or some type of economic weakness, at nearly every major educational or career milestone in my life.

The blue line is the S&P 500, a measure of stock market performance and economic health. Since I was born, it’s up a lot. 76x. An investment of $100 in the S&P 500 on the day I entered the world would be worth almost $7600 today.

The red line shows how far the S&P 500 has fallen from its previous high. Compare it to the blue line and you’ll see it. Those spikes down correspond to drops in the blue line. Most years, the stock market goes up. That’s good! It means that the economy is probably doing well, too, and people are more likely to be employed. When the red line is down by 20% or more, it indicates the economy is stressed. Businesses are struggling, and unemployment is likely growing.

Pretty much every major career and educational milestone in my life has coincided with big drops in the stock market. I have bad timing. This is the hand that was dealt to me, and I’ve worked through it. You will do the same. I know you can.

I was born into a bear market. Stocks dropped 36% before my first birthday. They hit new highs again but dropped 48% as I entered kindergarten. I learned to read just as newspapers were reporting that the stock market was down 28% from all-time highs. And they lost 27% when I went to middle school.

80s music was fun. The economy was less so for me. I was a college freshman during the 1987 crash and panicked that I would have to leave school. I was spared then, but graduated in 1991, into a recession that coincided with the Gulf War and spiking oil prices. There were few jobs to be had.

I started working on Wall Street in 1992. I found that first job through a family connection, and it was anything but a dream job. The $14,000 salary it paid barely covered the cost to commute from my grandmother’s house. Living in Manhattan was not an option.

As the market soared, I was hired to be a trader. All was well… Until I applied to business school. That was during 1998, when the literal geniuses at Long Term Capital Management got greedy and tanked the entire stock market. A 19% drop. While the tech stocks recovered, the rest of the economy was more bust than boom.

As you can guess by now, the stock market would stumble while I was at business school. From the time I entered NYU’s night school in 1999 to the time I earned my MBA in 2002, the S&P 500 would drop 49%. Tech stocks would fall even further!

Shocker, I would not find a new job for more than a year.

You get the idea. The pattern hasn’t let up. Not when I started teaching at CU Boulder in 2020 (pandemic!), and not when I began working at TheStreet Pro (Putin invaded Ukraine).

From a career timing perspective, I’m cursed.

I’m within a decade now of retirement, so all I can say is, you’ve been warned.

Everyone’s Got Advice. I’m No Different.

It seems like this story is about me. It’s not. It’s about what people should expect when they enter the workforce. It won’t be easy. Careers never are. Not the fulfilling ones, at least.

So, I thought it would be helpful to share some advice.

First, volatility will be with you for life. Prepare for it. I’m on my third career and look forward to the day when I start my fourth. It could be the best one yet!

Second, learn to write. Communication and your ability to think are what differentiate you from AI. Plus, you don’t really know what you think until you write it out. That’s how you learn what’s true and what isn’t.

Last, and most important, be young. Make plans with your friends and be social. Make memories. Not only will your life be richer, but your career will be, too.

Final Thoughts

You’ve made it this far despite economic challenges that we’ve all weathered. Yes, it’s different now that you’ll be on your own. But you went to kindergarten around the time of the financial crisis. You came through the pandemic. And went to college when Putin invaded Ukraine. Now, you’re graduating into an uncertain economy. It won’t be easy for you, but you are strong.