Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 9% below its one-month average  
– NASDAQ volume 15% below its one-month average  
– VIX index: up 0.21% to 18.74

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Position: None

I sold my QQQ trading long rental right after the close at $684.21 for a small profit.

Position: None 

I covered JOET and GRNY shorts just now.

Will reshort strength.

Position: None

Recent investment short Bloom Energy (BE) gives back -$32 today.

Position: Short BE (VS)

I’m back long (trading rental) in QQQ at $682.95 — on the greater oversold.

Position: Long QQQ (VS) 

From Peter Boockvar:

Positives,

1)   Initial jobless claims plumbed a new multi year low at 187k, 23k less than expected and down from 209k in the week before. This brings the 4 week average down to 208k from 215k. Continuing claims were just below 1.8mm at 1.796mm, little changed w/o/w.

2)   The S&P Global US composite PMI rose to 53.6 from 51.9 with the World Cup helping the services sector, along with the July 4th 250th anniversary festivities. The manufacturing component fell a hair to 53.8 from 53.9. They said on manufacturing, “It was worrying – though not unexpected – to see manufacturing growth weaken as some of the stock building seen in prior months showed signs of fading. Instead, July saw a concerning intensification of supply chain delays and accompanying renewed upturn in price pressures, constraining growth and subduing demand.”

3)   New home sales in June totaled 628k annualized, 21k above the estimate and May was revised up by 38k to 618k. Months’ supply remained elevated at 9.3. Regionally it was mixed as sales in the South rose to the most since last November but fell in the West to the least since 2014.

4)   Container prices fell w/o/w out of Shanghai. After 10 weeks of gains, they fell for a 2nd week to LA, by 6% and to NY by 3.5%. To Rotterdam, they were down a more modest 1% w/o/w.

5)   From Google/Alphabet: Search revenue rose 17% y/o/y, YouTube by 13% and “Cloud revenue grew 82%, powered by strong demand for AI infrastructure and AI solutions. And cloud backlog grew to $514 billion.”

6)   From Tesla: “Q2 continued the trend that we saw at the end of Q1, a resurgence in demand for vehicles across the globe. We achieved record Q2 deliveries globally, with sequential growth across Americas, APAC, and EMEA of 60%, 27% and 12% respectively. Additionally, Model Y set records in several key markets, including the Netherlands, Australia, and New Zealand.”

7)   From American Airlines: “Revenue strength was broad based, reflecting robust demand for our product and an improving pricing environment. Geographically, all regions exceeded our initial expectations during the quarter.”

8)   From United Rentals: “construction posted strong growth led by non-residential and infrastructure. And on the industrial side, power continues to post double digit growth, while metals and minerals also grew at a healthy rate…In the quarter, we saw projects kick-off in a variety of end-markets, including hospitals, airports, and LNG terminals to name a few, while data centers continue to be a source of growth.”

9)   From Robert Half: “Many of our small and mid sized business clients continue to operate with lean organizations after several years of disciplined cost management. As confidence improves and strategic priorities advance, we’re seeing demand for specialized talent and consulting expertise to help execute those initiatives. While clients continue to approach hiring thoughtfully, we are seeing steady progress in client interactions and activity.” And, “Artificial Intelligence continues to complement, not replace the work performed by the professionals we place. We’re seeing growing demand for candidates who combine deep domain expertise with AI fluency and the judgment required to apply these technologies effectively and responsibly, including verifying the accuracy of their outcomes.”

10)   From Texas Instruments: While market thinks it’s as good as it gets, “In the second quarter, revenue came in above the range as we saw continued growth in industrial and data center in addition to accelerated growth in automotive.” Their personal electronics business was flat y/o/y but up “upper single digits sequentially” and “communications equipment “grew both y/o/y and sequentially.”

11)   From STMicroelectronics: As good as it gets here too? “During the quarter demand increased further, with strong bookings in all end markets. We saw improved visibility and signs of tight supply in several product categories.”

12)   From PulteGroup: “Net new orders in the quarter increased by 6% over the same period last year, as we realized higher orders across all buyer groups. Active adult orders were up 12%, while orders among first time buyers increased 5%…I think it’s fair to say from day-to-day and week-to-week, consumer activity was impacted to varying degrees by global tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the material movement in interest rates. Still, we were able to drive higher orders in the period with strong performance across all buyer groups. Along with increased sales, we are also seeing homebuyers that are willing to pay for superior locations and the upgrades that they value most.”

13)   From CSX: “Stronger demand led to volume growth across our business.”

14)   From Capital One: On their consumer, “So, the US consumer and the overall economy remain resilient, resilient despite the high energy prices and everything. When you pick up the news every day, one would think the world’s falling apart, but actually the consumer continues to perform remarkably well. The unemployment rate in June was lower than in February before the Iran conflict began. Jobless claims remain low. Job creation has rebounded over the past few months. Consumer spending remains strong.” More, “Now as a result of inflation, real wage growth turned negative in April and May on a y/o/y basis. But it was back in positive territory ever so slightly in June as inflation ticked back down. When we look at bank balances and debt servicing burdens of our customers, these look a bit stronger than a year ago across income levels. And our domestic card business, our credit metrics, continued to improve on a y/o/y basis in the quarter…we see real strength in the consumer and strength across our business performance in card and in auto. And that’s why while we keep a very wary eye on the economy and international developments, we are leaning in with a lot of positivity into our growth strategies.”

15)   From Fifth Third Bancorp: In terms of loan growth, “Overall, we continued to see demand in sectors and markets benefiting from infrastructure investments, as well as in aerospace and defense.” Also, “On credit, trends were benign and improving” as net charge-off rates were down “with stable trends across industries and geographies despite the continued market volatility.”

16)   From MMM: Strong performance was seen in “adhesives, abrasives, aerospace, electrical markets, and safety.” More, “Semiconductor, aerospace and data center business segments, comprising approximately 20% of sales, grew double digits.”

17)   From GM: “The business continues to perform very well. Customer demand in North America remains steady, including for our pickups and SUVs, and pricing is consistent.”

18)   From Domino’s: “The QSR industry in the US has been struggling with order counts during a difficult period of macroeconomic uncertainty. We believe this continued in Q2, where QSR order counts were flat. And despite this backdrop, demand for Domino’s remained incredibly strong. While we have not shared specific order count numbers in the past, and I won’t start sharing them now on my last call what I will tell you is that our order counts were up meaningfully in total and individually in our delivery and carryout businesses. This means that while other restaurants were fighting for orders, millions of new customers came to Domino’s.”

19)   Japan’s June core/core CPI rose 1.7% y/o/y vs the estimate of 1.8% and still kept subdued because of subsidies but still above the overnight interest rate. The headline CPI gain was also 1.7% but with the renewed jump in oil prices, this news is old.

20)   The Japanese July manufacturing PMI was little changed but staying firmly above 50 at 54.7 while services slipped to 51.9 from 52.2. S&P Global said “The cloud of war in the Middle East continues to loom over the Japanese private sector. Manufacturers continued to report efforts to build stocks of goods and raw materials amid ongoing supply chain disruption and higher prices linked to the conflict, despite a slight easing in overall cost inflation over the month. Selling prices continues to rise sharply, with service charge inflation accelerating as firms sought to protect already squeezed margins by passing higher costs on to clients.”

21)   Australia’s July services PMI was higher by 2.5 pts to 53 and manufacturing was 51.7 vs 51.5 in the month before.

22)   In the Eurozone, services rebounded back above 50 at 51.6 from 49.4 while manufacturing improved again to 52 from 51.4. S&P Global said “Germany is reporting growth for the first time in four months. France’s downturn has softened to the weakest since February, and the rest of the region as a whole is growing at a pace not seen since last November as its order book inflows jumped to a degree not beaten in over four years.” And, “The improving picture also spreads to the labor market, where companies reported the first rise in payroll numbers so far this year as business growth expectations revived to the highest since February.”

23)   Services in the UK drove the lift in its PMI as it rose 3 pts to 51.8 m/o/m. Manufacturing was up to 52.8 from 52.5. S&P Global said “Hospitality companies saw demand boosted by good weather, the FIFA World Cup (England was so close!)    and more domestic holidays, as high costs and uncertainty continued to deter some foreign travel. However, overall services growth remained lackluster amid cost of living pressures.” With manufacturing, “manufacturers and their customers continued to build precautionary stocks, widely linked to supply chain disruption caused by the war in the Middle East, meaning part of the recent factory upturn could prove short-lived.”

24)   The ECB left its deposit rate at 2.25% as fully expected and the September meeting is live but uncommitted.

25)   French business confidence in July improved by 2 pts m/o/m to the highest since March mostly helped by services and retail.

26)   In the UK, the CBI industrial orders index for July was much less negative at -36 vs -65 but business is still tough. CBI said “We’re seeing manufacturers being squeezed from both sides. Costs continue to climb while weak demand limits their ability to raise prices – leaving firms to absorb the pressure through shrinking margins, weaker investment and further cuts to employment.”

27)   The UK headline June CPI at 2.6% was one tenth below the estimate, the core rate of 2.6% was one tenth above with services inflation running at 3.6% y/o/y, also one tenth higher than expected.

28)   Also in the UK, payrolled employment fell by 4k but the estimate was for a drop of 8k and follows a gain of 3k in June. Jobless claims in June rose 6.7k and May was revised sharply lower by 30k. As of May, their unemployment rate held at 4.9%. Also through May, weekly earnings ex bonus rose 3.4% y/o/y as expected and the same pace seen in April.

29)   The July German ZEW investor confidence index of the German economy improved to 26.3 from 10.5 and above the estimate of 15.3. The Current Situation though was still deeply negative at -77.6 but up from -81 in June. The ZEW said “The economic outlook continues to improve in July; it seems that the reforms are having an effect. Especially the export oriented sectors as well as domestic demand experiencing sustained growth. Nevertheless, the uncertainty associated with the developments in the Iran conflict and the oil price remain a crucial factor affecting the prospects for a recovery of the German economy.”

30)   German PPI in June fell .3% m/o/m after robust gains in the three months prior while up 1.8% y/o/y.

31)   Congrats to Spain on your World Cup victory.

Negatives,

1)   Another week of rising market driven interest rates globally.

2)   From Alphabet/Google: For the first time ever, “We had negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion in the second quarter, driven by our investments in CapEx.” And, “we are updating our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $195 billion to $205 billion, up from our previous estimate of $180 billion to $190 billion. The increase in the range is primarily due to an acceleration in the delivery of capacity to meet growing demand. As we previously shared, we continue to expect our CapEx to increase significantly in 2027, and we’ll provide more details at a later date.” For perspective, that $200b of expected spend would be 47% of revenue vs 11% in 2022.

3)   From Tesla: Investors are focused on this, “As previously guided, our free cash flow ended up being negative for the quarter, most of the reason for it going negative is because CapEx more than doubled sequentially. And we expected to increase further in the second half of 2026. We continue to expect that CapEx for this year will be more than $25 billion. CapEx will grow for the next two or three years as we expand our Robotaxi fleet, expand our production capacity for Optimus, make investments for semiconductor fab, install solar manufacturing capacity and AI compute infrastructure in addition to all the other expansions we’ll do for other manufacturing for automotive.”

4)   From American Airlines: “Since the beginning of July, expected third quarter fuel expense has increased by more than $700 million and nearly $1.6 billion for the remainder of the year. Even in the last week, our fuel forecast has increased $230 million in the third quarter and nearly $550 million for the remainder of the year.”

5)   From Tractor Supply: “We had positive comparable store sales in April and June. However, they were more than offset by unusually adverse conditions in May, which drove second quarter results below our expectations.” In May, “Fuel prices peaked during the height of our spring selling season, putting meaningful pressure on our customers’ discretionary spending at the most important time of the quarter. Our customers often drive longer distances to shop, frequently in pickup trucks, many of which are diesel powered, making them especially sensitive to higher fuel costs.”

6)   From Albertson’s: Identical sales fell .8% and “While pharmacy and digital delivered strong growth, their performance was not enough to offset broader pressures in our core business…the decline was most pronounced in our lower income customer segments, where we continued to see softness in both units and baskets.” Also, egg deflation cut comps by 50 bps. “As we look to the balance of the year, we are planning prudently around a softer unit environment while continuing to invest in actions that strengthen our competitiveness and customer value proposition. Our more cautious view reflects ongoing pressure on lower income consumers, softness in grocery industry unit trends, and the potential for additional affordability pressure from supplier cost increases.”

7)   From Knight Swift Transportation: Good for them, not so for the rest of us, “So, the truckload freight market has rapidly progressed over the past few months, with spot rates trending well ahead of normal seasonality, tender rejection rates reaching levels not seen since 2021, and contractual bid activity growing increasingly supportive. This has continued to be largely supply driven, though signs of improving demand are starting to emerge.”

8)   From Equity Residential: Good for them, not good for renters, said rents in the quarter rose 2.8% y/o/y with a 7 tenths drop in new lease rates well offset by a 5.2% rise in renewal rates. Specifically in July, the new quarter, new leases fell one tenth while renewal rates were up 4.9% with a blended rate of up 3%. “Positive trends around both supply and demand continue to drive our operating performance during the primary leasing season and we continue to observe growing rents as we work our way through the summer.”

9)   From Ally Financial: “Consumers remained resilient, and we are encouraged by the credit performance across our portfolio. At the same time, we are mindful of the cumulative headwinds from ongoing inflationary pressures and evolving macro backdrop…delinquencies have remained stubbornly high. Clearly, we’re dealing with a consumer that is dealing with affordability. Gas price is also an issue. Overall, I’d say we still see this macro as dynamic and obviously taking a measured posture in response to that.”

10)   From MMM: “We continue to see a couple of places with pressure including consumer electronics, auto and auto aftermarket and US consumer spending.”

11)   From DR Horton: “Affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment continue to impact new home demand, and we expect sales incentives to remain elevated during the fourth quarter, with incentive levels dependent on demand, mortgage rates and other market conditions…our sales were relatively in line with normal seasonality. They were a little softer post our call in April and still see plenty of buyers out there in our sales offices as we travel and in front of people, it’s just needing to see them be a little more confident in the overall economy and their ability to move forward with a purchase today.”

12)   From GM: “We continue to expect gross tariff costs of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion for the full year, which is largely flat y/o/y. Through the first half, we incurred approximately $1.3 billion net of the $500 million in IEEPA benefit recognized in the first quarter…We continue to expect commodity inflation, logistics, and higher DRAM costs to be a headwind of $1.5 billion to $2 billion for the full year.”

Covering some more SpaceX (SPCX) short under $114.

Position: Short SPCX (VS)

I am having a family lunch.

Back at around 2 PM.

Position: None

I have moved to VVL in cannabis.

Again, for emphasis — this is a speculative space so comply with your risk disciplines and appetite.

As for me, I relish the weakness as an opportunity based on my previous comments. 

Position: Long MSOS and individual companies 

– NYSE volume 15% below its one-month average; 

– Nasdaq volume 26% below its one-month average; 

– VIX index: down 1.98 % to 18.33

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

I just don’t get it/Don’t forgot those huge lease obligations too/Great earnings intel/PMIs

I understand the desire to reshore key activities like producing rare earths, pharma ingredients, etc… and the goal of making more things in the US but I just don’t get this obsession with blanket tariffs, especially as US importers and consumers are eating most of it, inflation both for consumers and business is already a major economic pain point and it’s on many things we will never make here. I’ll stop there.

I mentioned yesterday my belief that even after the massive hyperscaler CapEx slows down in a few years (maybe), high maintenance CapEx will remain. One of those expense lines are committed leases for these data centers. Bloomberg had a great chart yesterday that highlighted the size and growth with lease obligations now totaling $240 billion for the five large hyperscalers (and will only grow from here). That is in addition to $430 billion of debt they have in total which DOES NOT include all the off balance sheet liabilities they have committed to.

To the bombardment of earnings and I’ll try to keep as succinct as possible. The economic picture is still mixed I believe.

From American Airlines and whose stock fell 8% because of lower guidance due to a rising fuel bill:

“Revenue strength was broad based, reflecting robust demand for our product and an improving pricing environment. Geographically, all regions exceeded our initial expectations during the quarter.”

“Premium unit revenue increased more than 13% y/o/y, driven by strong leisure and corporate demand across all entities. Main cabin demand was solid. Unit revenue increased nearly 9% and accelerated during the quarter.”

“In the second quarter, fuel expense increased by over $2.2 billion, or 83% y/o/y. Despite that unprecedented headwind, American was able to recover nearly half of the increase with the strong revenue performance in the quarter.”

And why the stock fell, “Since the beginning of July, expected third quarter fuel expense has increased by more than $700 million and nearly $1.6 billion for the remainder of the year. Even in the last week, our fuel forecast has increased $230 million in the third quarter and nearly $550 million for the remainder of the year.”

From Tractor Supply, bucking the trend with a 3% rise yesterday, though comps fell 1.5%:

“We had positive comparable store sales in April and June. However, they were more than offset by unusually adverse conditions in May, which drove second quarter results below our expectations.”

In May, “Fuel prices peaked during the height of our spring selling season, putting meaningful pressure on our customers’ discretionary spending at the most important time of the quarter. Our customers often drive longer distances to shop, frequently in pickup trucks, many of which are diesel powered, making them especially sensitive to higher fuel costs.”

“At the same time, persistent drought conditions across several key southeastern markets limited normal seasonal activity and reduced demand for lawn care and other outdoor related purchases…These conditions disproportionately affected discretionary and project oriented categories, while our needs based businesses remain resilient.”

Albertson’s plunged by 22% and said this:

Identical sales fell .8% and “While pharmacy and digital delivered strong growth, their performance was not enough to offset broader pressures in our core business.”

“the decline was most pronounced in our lower income customer segments, where we continued to see softness in both units and baskets.” Also, egg deflation cut comps by 50 bps.

“As we look to the balance of the year, we are planning prudently around a softer unit environment while continuing to invest in actions that strengthen our competitiveness and customer value proposition. Our more cautious view reflects ongoing pressure on lower income consumers, softness in grocery industry unit trends, and the potential for additional affordability pressure from supplier cost increases.”

From Dow, which fell 1% yesterday:

This was some macro commentary, “And looking around the globe, in the Americas, consumers have remained steady, economic activity is constructive, and spending has held up, even as the US housing market is still soft under the weight of affordability concerns and high mortgage rates. In the Middle East, geopolitical tensions remain elevated and logistics are still constrained…The geopolitical impacts on energy and feedstocks continue to support higher risk premiums, and we are seeing renewed value placed on supply security, including both reliability and logistics.”

“In Europe, deeper structural pressures like high operating and labor costs persist. But with that, some constructive dynamics are beginning to emerge, including government support and trade protection measures. This includes recently announced support for EU anti-dumping and anti-subsidy actions, each of which support a more balanced environment for European produced products, including polyols that have been impacted by anti-competitive imports.”

“And across Asia-Pacific, we continue to see mixed signals. Regional consumer demand remain soft, with weakened retail sales in May, but industrial production and manufacturing activity have recently accelerated. In the energy space, refinery operations are normalizing in China, improving energy availability across the region. So globally, a supportive but higher cost feedstock environment, paired with resilient, but uneven demand leaves us to expect a more measured but still solid third quarter.”

United Rentals stock had a big day yesterday, up 10% and said this on their call of note:

“construction posted strong growth led by non-residential and infrastructure. And on the industrial side, power continues to post double digit growth, while metals and minerals also grew at a healthy rate.”

“In the quarter, we saw projects kick-off in a variety of end-markets, including hospitals, airports, and LNG terminals to name a few, while data centers continue to be a source of growth.”

From Knight-Swift Transportation, down 4.9% yesterday:

“So, the truckload freight market has rapidly progressed over the past few months, with spot rates trending well ahead of normal seasonality, tender rejection rates reaching levels not seen since 2021, and contractual bid activity growing increasingly supportive. This has continued to be largely supply driven, though signs of improving demand are starting to emerge.”

From Robert Half on the labor market and lower pre market:

While revenues fell 3% y/o/y adjusted, “Hiring demand continues to improve and market conditions are increasingly more supportive of our business.”

“Technology was our strongest performing practice group within contract talent solutions…Client engagement remained strong throughout the quarter with job orders and project activity increasing across many markets, particularly in technology modernization, data, cybersecurity and IT infrastructure.”

“Many of our small and mid sized business clients continue to operate with lean organizations after several years of disciplined cost management. As confidence improves and strategic priorities advance, we’re seeing demand for specialized talent and consulting expertise to help execute those initiatives. While clients continue to approach hiring thoughtfully, we are seeing steady progress in client interactions and activity.”

“The labor market for specialized talent remains tight.”

“Artificial Intelligence continues to complement, not replace the work performed by the professionals we place. We’re seeing growing demand for candidates who combine deep domain expertise with AI fluency and the judgment required to apply these technologies effectively and responsibly, including verifying the accuracy of their outcomes.” I bolded to highlight.

“The rapid adoption of GenAI by job seekers has also changed the recruiting landscape, increasing application volumes and making candidate evaluation more complex.”

I’ll finish with the economic data of note from overseas.

Japan’s June core/core CPI rose 1.7% y/o/y vs the estimate of 1.8% and still kept subdued because of subsidies but still above the overnight interest rate. The headline CPI gain was also 1.7% but with the renewed jump in oil prices, this news is old. While the 10 yr inflation breakeven was unchanged at 2%, the 10 yr JGB yield rose another 2.5 bps to 2.82% and is 5 bps from matching the highest since the 1990’s.

The Japanese July manufacturing PMI was little changed but staying firmly above 50 at 54.7 while services slipped to 51.9 from 52.2. S&P Global said “The cloud of war in the Middle East continues to loom over the Japanese private sector. Manufacturers continued to report efforts to build stocks of goods and raw materials amid ongoing supply chain disruption and higher prices linked to the conflict, despite a slight easing in overall cost inflation over the month. Selling prices continues to rise sharply, with service charge inflation accelerating as firms sought to protect already squeezed margins by passing higher costs on to clients.”

Australia’s July services PMI was higher by 2.5 pts to 53 and manufacturing was 51.7 vs 51.5 in the month before.

In the Eurozone, services rebounded back above 50 at 51.6 from 49.4 while manufacturing improved again to 52 from 51.4. S&P Global said “Germany is reporting growth for the first time in four months. France’s downturn has softened to the weakest since February, and the rest of the region as a whole is growing at a pace not seen since last November as its order book inflows jumped to a degree not beaten in over four years.”

And, “The improving picture also spreads to the labor market, where companies reported the first rise in payroll numbers so far this year as business growth expectations revived to the highest since February.”

They also mentioned that ‘cost pressures have meanwhile cooled sharply’ but energy prices have done nothing since but go up over the past few weeks and high energy costs relative to the rest of the world is Europe’s competitive disadvantage.

Services in the UK drove the lift in its PMI as it rose 3 pts to 51.8 m/o/m. Manufacturing was up to 52.8 from 52.5. S&P Global said “Hospitality companies saw demand boosted by good weather, the FIFA World Cup (England was so close!) and more domestic holidays, as high costs and uncertainty continued to deter some foreign travel. However, overall services growth remained lackluster amid cost of living pressures.”

With manufacturing, “manufacturers and their customers continued to build precautionary stocks, widely linked to supply chain disruption caused by the war in the Middle East, meaning part of the recent factory upturn could prove short-lived.” We’ve been hearing this globally now for months.

Nothing market moving here but it does seem that economies around the world are doing their best, and doing a decent job, of managing through the oil price volatility and supply chain issues out of the Strait.

Positions: None.

Sold my QQQ (QQQ) trading long rental at $690.70 for a profit.

Positions: None. 

I added to my QQQ (QQQ) trading long rental at $685.36

Positions: Long QQQ S

This is from Google Gemini.  The query was about Intel, and why the stock is down today after the good quarter and guidance. 

Do not need to get past the first section to make the point.  The rest of it is no better.  Starting with #1 “Weak Next Q Guidance” – it uses as its source reference this link, which is from January 23, 2026:  https://www.tikr.com/blog/intel-stock-crashes-as-weak-revenue-guidance-misses-analyst-targets

This is of course irrelevant.  It is the wrong quarter.  But for whatever reason, the AI is compelled to generate an answer, when it doesn’t know.  It is not even intelligent enough to realize the source link is the wrong quarter.  The word “today” was used in the query, so that is not an excuse either.  It likely just grabbed on to the notion that the article referenced weak guidance and the stock going down.

A great example of both how the AI works (ergo what it really does), and why it cannot think, even at a very simple level, ergo Jan 23 2026 is not today.  Gen AI is and always will be not much more than a predictive text generator. Good for mechanistic processes in terms of output (coding is mechanistic), but still incredibly compute and power intensive (dis-economic) to generate that output.  A company providing free humans to code would grow its revenue rapidly too, if its losses were continually financed.

Clearly, with all the money being spent (even Google is now cash flow negative), this problem has not been solved. Which means, as far as Gen AI alone is concerned, it probably never will be. It is just endemic to the technology. This is a commodity industry. Open Source will win. Not just the Chinese, any open source. I keep writing the same thing (in the More Tales series), if I was running one of these things I would prioritize doing the same thing 98% as well, but 98% cheaper (currently the Chinese but it could be the U.S. too), and then focusing my resources on a new and different approach that might be more effective and less compute and resource intensive like neuro symbolic AI or world models or something else.

Q:  Why is intc stock down today after the good quarter and guidance

A: Intel’s stock reaction boils down to a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic, where a strong quarter was overshadowed by near-term operational bottlenecks.While Intel (INTC) beat Wall Street’s expectations for both top-line revenue and earnings per share in its reported quarter, the market is laser-focused on the company’s near-term outlook and supply chain friction.Here are the primary reasons why the stock is pulling back:

1. Weak Next-Quarter Guidance

Although current results exceeded expectations, Intel’s forward guidance for the upcoming quarter fell short of Wall Street estimates.

• Revenue and Profitability Miss: Midpoint revenue estimates for the next quarter came in below consensus, and adjusted earnings per share are projected near breakeven ($0.00) versus the profit analysts expected.
• Sequential Drop: The guidance implies a sharp ~15% sequential decline in revenue, signaling a bumpier road ahead than the market had priced in.

2. Industry-Wide & Internal Supply Constraints

The biggest concern spooking investors isn’t a lack of demand—it’s Intel’s inability to fully capitalize on that demand.

• Exhausted Buffers: Management noted that the inventory and wafer production buffers used to satisfy customer demand in late 2025 are largely depleted entering early 2026.
• Component Shortages: Intel highlighted severe industry shortages in wafers, advanced packaging, substrates, and memory.
• Prioritization Shift: To capture booming AI data center demand, Intel redirected wafer capacity from its Client Computing (PC) division to its server division. Because manufacturing lead times take a couple of quarters to flow through, this leaves supply heavily constrained in the near term.

3. Manufacturing Yield Concerns

Investors remain sensitive to Intel’s ongoing foundry transformation. Management acknowledged that manufacturing yields on key advanced technology nodes—while tracking to internal roadmaps—are still lower than desired, raising questions about margin recovery and execution risk.

4. Profit Taking After Recent Rallies

Ahead of the earnings report, INTC experienced a significant run-up as bullish sentiment around its AI and foundry turnarounds mounted. With the high expectations built into the stock price, even a temporary pause in growth velocity gave investors a reason to lock in profits.

The Takeaway: The underlying demand across AI data centers and client computing remains solid, but Wall Street is punishing the stock for short-term supply chain bottlenecks and low initial-quarter guidance that will test the execution of Intel’s multi-year turnaround. 

Positions: Long GOOGL VVS

Playing the oversold for a trade.

With Nasdaq futures -300 handles, I am taking a small trading long rental in QQQ at $685.25

Positions: Long QQQ S 

I have several friends who bought in this project:

https://therealdeal.com/miami/2026/07/23/mandarin-oriental-residences-boca-raton-faces-foreclosure

Positions: None. 

Bought some more MSOS (MSOS) at $4.27 in premarket,

My sole trade this morning.

Positions: Long MSOS VL

Upside:

-LVWR +67% (earnings, guidance)

-SAFT +41% (Mapfre SA acquires Massachusetts insurer Safety Insurance for $1.54B)

-THC +16% (earnings, guidance)

-NDLS +14% (earnings, guidance)

-AMKR +12% (signs $1.5B multi-year advanced packaging and development agreement with NVIDIA)

-WKC +11% (earnings, guidance)

-EAF +7.6% (earnings, guidance)

-EW +6.8% (earnings, guidance)

-SLB +4.4% (earnings, guidance)

-LBTYA +4.1% (earnings, guidance)

-DLR +3.4% (earnings, guidance)

-INTC +2.9% (earnings, guidance)

-LW +2.6% (earnings, guidance)

-RNG +2.5% (earnings, guidance)

-ORCL +2.3% (signs DoD contract worth up to $7B over 10 years)

-UPST +2.3% (receives conditional OCC approval to establish Upstart Bank, N.A.)

Downside:

-ZVRA -29% (receives negative CHMP opinion for arimoclomol in Niemann-Pick disease type C)

-CHTR -6.9% (earnings, guidance)

-MXL -5.2% (earnings, guidance)

-RHI -4.9% (earnings, guidance)

-AXP -3.5% (earnings, guidance)

-HIG -2.9% (earnings)

-OVV -2.5% (earnings, guidance)

Positions: None.

Positions: None

GOP Lawmaker Claims White House Backs His Hemp Bill, But Administration Has Problems With Inhalable Product Provisions, Sources Say – Marijuana Moment

Position: None

Wolf Street howls about the Fed and the next rate hike.

Position: None

The S&P Short Range Oscillator shifted back into an oversold at -1.33% vs. 0.58%

Position: None