After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 14% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 5% above its one-month average

- VIX index: down 3.97% to 18.36

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

Earnings After the Close Tuesday, April 14

Earnings Before the Open Wednesday, April 15

Wolf Street howls about the PPI.

Paring back  (DIS)  at $102.72.

Position: Long DIS (S)

In the world of cannabis I continue to add to Verano (VRNO).

Position: Long VRNO (S)

I've sold my  (WFC)  long at $82.22.

Position: None

I have sold the balance of my longs in  (C)  at $139.39 and  (MS)  at $183.46 just now.

Position: None

Programming note:

Today was a fumigation of our office.

Tomorrow its root canal surgery (315 PM).

It's a bull market in critters and pain.

 I added to the indices short:

*  (SPY)  $693.93

*  (QQQ)  $627.45

Position: Short SPY common (S), QQQ common (S) 

If I was trading with more confidence I would likely be considering a short of the software and cybersecurity space now ( (CRM) ,  (PANW)  et al).

Position: None

The most overbought S&P Index (based on RSI) since October, 2025:

Position: Short SPY (S)

- NYSE volume 5% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume 7% above its one-month average;

- VIX index: down 5.70% to 18.03

None.

Charts from 10:13 a.m. ET.

None.

As mentioned earlier, I am offsides on the market, so doing little. 

From Peter Boockvar:

Never mind

When I wrote on March 30th, “When it comes to sentiment, we are ripe for a big rally, upon the end of this, as seen with Friday’s (3/27) close in the CNN Fear/Greed index which is down to 10. I believe it got as low as 3 in March/April 2020 in the teeth of you know what,” it ended up being the messaging days after from the White House that wanted this war over asap that was the fundamental catalyst but I certainly did not expect to get back all of what was lost in the S&P 500 post war like the war never happened. The Fear/Greed index closed at 42 yesterday, nearing the ‘neutral’ category’ versus ‘extreme fear’ when it was at 10.

What’s changed price wise elsewhere since the end of February? The CRB index is up 20%. Within this, the price of gasoline is up by 38%, diesel by 50%, and jet fuel is up by 58%. The 2 yr yield is higher by 38 bps and the 10 yr yield has risen by 34 bps. The price of urea is higher by 50% and aluminum is up by 15%. On the petrochemical side, which we know shows up in plastics, packaging, clothing via polyester, etc... ethylene prices have risen by 81%, methanol higher by 42% and butadiene prices, that goes into making synthetic rubber used to make tires, is up by 79%. With respect to global volumes of things, we know shortages are growing but hopefully that would be cured quickly with a full reopening of the Strait but will take months (and years for LNG out of Qatar). Maybe the stock market is betting we just go back to pre war pricing quickly. I’m much more skeptical and that a higher cost structure for those procuring raw materials and subject to pricing pass through of a variety of finished things is here to stay for a while unfortunately.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism index for March fell 3 pts m/o/m to 95.8 and that is the lowest since April 2025 when the tariff gun was sprayed around the world. Plan to Hire held at 12% which matches the least since March 2024. I think much of the slowdown in hiring is a result of companies trying to protect profit margins in the face of another round of cost increases. A casualty of that too could be capital spending as plans to increase them fell another 2 pts to the lowest since 2009, notwithstanding the tax incentives to invest. Plans to increase inventories declined to the least since May 2024.

There was only a 1 pt rise in ‘higher selling prices’ to 25% which is below the 6 month average of 27%. As heard from WD-40 last week though, it could take 3-4 months for the cost increases to show up in COGS that would then be dealt with via prices. Compensation fell 1 pt for the current situation and declined by 4 pts with future comp plans, again, likely a way to save money.

Those that Expect a Better Economy dropped 7 pts to 11%, the weakest since October 2024 when it was at -5 right before the election. Those that Expect Higher Sales fell another 1 pt after dropping by 8 in February. Good Time to Expand declined by 4 pts.

After improving by 7 pts in February, ‘Positive Earnings Trends’ dropped by 11 pts.

From Bill Dunkelberg at the NFIB, “The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers.” Not surprising and of course this comes on top of all the tariffs that are still being absorbed.

NFIB Small Business Optimism index

Plan to Hire

Increased Capital Spending

Expect Better Economy

Speaking of tariffs and other things, this is what Fastenal said of note and whose stock fell 7% yesterday:

“Industrial economy remains somewhat challenging with US manufacturing PMI averaging around 52.6, which is an improvement, but still moderate overall. We really didn’t see much of a tailwind. We gained share through focused execution. Largely, we won new business with key accounts, we expanded customer site presence and we strengthened our value added services and solutions.”

They did see good end market demand from heavy manufacturing and a turnaround in construction with “large national contractors and regional firms benefiting and activity rising across key metro areas, especially in markets with infrastructure and commercial development. We also saw jumps from other non-manufacturing end markets, including transportation, warehousing, data centers and other industrial services.”

What disappointed the Street, “We were approximately 40 bps below our own Q1 gross margin target, as pricing actions did not keep up with cost increases as the quarter played out...Tariff related costs moved through the P&L faster than our pricing...On pricing, we realized approximately 3.5% y/o/y and that compares to 3.3% in the fourth quarter, not enough to offset inflation.”

More on this, “While our pricing execution progressed through the quarter, we did not move quickly enough, related mostly because of tariffs and some other items. As you can imagine, tariff uncertainty added additional challenges. In many cases, customer conversations and pricing actions took longer than usual as customers worked through their own planning assumptions. In others, these conversations were delayed as customers and suppliers await further direction on tariff changes and potential refunds.”

LVMH is trading down 2% in Paris after reporting yesterday. They said this:

“LVMH continued to grow organically in Q1 with improved trends across most businesses. The quarter was impacted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which had a tangible incidence on demand in the region in March after a good start of the year, and this accounted for a negative 1 percentage point on the growth of the quarter. So, excluding this impact, organic growth would have been plus 2%.”

“Elsewhere, Q1 saw solid growth in China and Asia at large as well as in the United States...The euro strength against key currencies generated a negative 7% currency impact in Q1, which continued to have also an unfavorable impact for tourist sales, especially in Europe.”

From Goldman Sachs‘ earnings call:

When asked about private credit, Soloman said “I know people are very focused on the cycle and they should be. This has been a long period of time, ex the Covid shutdown. It’s been a long period of time without what I call a normal credit cycle, meaning a meaningful slowdown in the economy or a recession. Whenever you have a meaningful slowdown in the economy or a recession, there are higher loss levels in diversified credit portfolios...I think one of the things that’s really not getting a lot of attention is if you do have a cycle, what does that look like?”

And his answer to his own question, “And so if you take a very tough cycle, the global financial crisis, the cumulative default rates across the entire leverage lending space, the entire leveraged lending space during the GFC was 10%, recoveries were about 50%. So the cumulative loss was 5% to 6% against coupons of 9% to 10%. And so that is the business model of this. I think institutional investors understand that, I think there’s going to continue to be some noise around the retail space.”

Here is what Jamie Dimon said of note from a top down perspective in the JP Morgan earnings release:

“The US economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy. Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment and the Fed’s asset purchases. At the same time, there is an increasingly complex set of risks - such as geopolitical tensions and wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. While we cannot predict how these risks and uncertainties will ultimately play out, they are significant and they reinforce why we prepare the Firm for a wide range of environments.”

With respect to those ‘Fed asset purchases’, the Fed is now scaling them down, announced yesterday monthly bill purchases will go to $25b from $40b and that slowdown is quicker than markets were anticipating.

The March slowdown in global trade was seen in the China trade data where exports were up 2.5% y/o/y, well below the estimate of up 8.6%. Imports jumped by 28% as I’m sure importers were rushing to get things. That’s twice the forecast of a rise of 14%.

None.

Upside:

-AVNS +69% (acquired by American Industrial Partners for $25/shr at ~$1.272B enterprise value)

-TVTX +37% (announces Full FDA Approval of FILSPARI (sparsentan), the first and only approved medicine for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis)

-CRDO +18% (acquires DustPhotonics to expand silicon photonics)

-BE +12% (Bloom Energy and Oracle expand strategic partnership to deploy up to 2.8 GW to accelerate AI infrastructure build-out; appoints Simon Edwards as CFO, effective Apr 13th, 2026)

-DTST +11% (earnings, color)

-LASE +11% (advanced anti-drone system reaches prototype stage after initial testing neutralized a Class 1 drone through laser engagement)

-AAL +9.2% (UAL CEO reportedly considered merger with American Airlines)

-GSAT +9.1% (confirms to be acquired by Amazon at $90.00/shr cash or stock)

-IRDM +7.2% (higher following Amazon deal to acquire Globalstar)

-RYET +7.1% (enters MOU with City University Malaysia to Advance Global Education Strategy and Planned Transition to Formind Group)

-PRAX +6.0% (US FDA Accepts Ulixacaltamide HCl NDA in Patients with Essential Tremor)

-TDG +5.5% (reports prelim Q2; Unit to sell $1.25B in debt)

-LCID +3.9% (names new CEO, files common stock shelf of indeterminate amount; Q1 guidance)

-ASTS +3.7% (higher following Amazon deal to acquire Globalstar)

-RKLB +3.4% (unveils New Electric Propulsion Satellite Thruster to Meet Constellation Demand)

-UAL +3.2% (UAL CEO reportedly considered merger with American Airlines)

-NVO +3.1% (partners with OpenAI on medicine discovery and delivery; UK approves single-dose 7.2mg semaglutide Wegovy pen for adults)

-F +2.6% (UBS Raised F to Buy from Neutral, price target: $15)

-BLK +2.3% (earnings, color)

Downside:

-TE -5.7% (proposes convertible notes offering)

-KMX -5.2% (earnings, guidance)

None.

None.

None.

Treasury Auctions

11:00 a.m.: Treasury Announces a 4, 8 and 17 Week Bill Auction;

11:00 a.m.: Treasury buyback announcement (liq support);

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $70B 6-Week Bill Auction;

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts a $50B 52-Week Bill Auction

Fed Speakers:

9:45 a.m.: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) Television Appearance -- AP News (Livestream) (Interview to appear on AP News livestream of Semafor World Economy conference);

10:15 a.m.: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) Television Appearance -- Yahoo! Finance;

12:10PM: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) speaks on a panel at the Semafor World Economy 2026 (Livestream/Embargoed Text TBD);  or check this link or this link;

12:45 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Barr (Voter) speaks on "Rural Economic Development" before the "Strengthening America's Economy Through Rural Investment: a Working Forum" hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Washington, DC (Text available. No Q&A. Livestream at youtube.com/federalreserve  or www.federalreserve.gov);

1:00 p.m.: Fed Bank of Boston President Collins (Non-Voter), Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin (Non-Voter), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson (Voter), and (moderator) Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr (Voter) participate in fireside chat before the "Strengthening America's Economy Through Rural Investment: a Working Forum" hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Washington, DC (Livestream at youtube.com/federalreserve or www.federalreserve.gov)

Economic Calendar

None.

(MGM) , an investment short, cuts guidance. 

BETMGM Q1 2026 BUSINESS UPDATE - Apr 14, 2026

Position: Short MGM (S)

More Index shorts (at 7:53 a.m.):

*  (SPY)  $687.55

*  (QQQ)  $620.27

Position: Short SPY common (S), QQQ (S)

The losers/laggards won yesterday in a surprising rally (at least to me).

As equities move closer to the year's highs and the overbought expands conspicuously, I will likely begin to judiciously increase my short exposure in the coming sessions.

Interest rates, inflation and oil prices remain elevated (relative to consensus) and valuations have quickly risen.

Moreover, improvisational policy (out of Washington D.C.) could be destabilizing to domestic economic growth and U.S. trade. 

Unlike many I don't believe this is a start of a new bull market leg.

Virginia Governor Wants Amendments To Marijuana Sales Legalization Bill, Including Delayed Market Launch - Marijuana Moment

Bernstein raises price target on CoreWeave  (CRWV)  from $56 to $67.

Position: None

A reminder:

Flea-ing the Scene

Programming note:

Believe it or not I have a flea issue in my office and I have to prepare for fumigation tomorrow morning!

So I am going to call it an early one today.

I will be working off my laptop Tuesday morning until early Tuesday afternoon.

BY Doug Kass · Apr 13, 2026, 3:25 PM EDT

I added to index shorts:

* SPY $687.98

*  (QQQ)  $620.55

Position: Short SPY common (S) QQQ common (S)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is now very overbought at 7.17% vs. 4.43%.

Position: Short SPY common (VS), QQQ common (VS)