Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 18% below its one-month average

- NASDAQ volume 12% below its one-month average

- VIX index: down 0.57% to 19.12

Breadth 

S&P 500 Sectors

 % Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Programming note:

Believe it or not I have a flea issue in my office and I have to prepare for fumigation tomorrow morning!

So I am going to call it an early one today.

I will be working off my laptop Tuesday morning until early Tuesday afternoon.

Wolf Street howls about the deep freeze in single-family housing activity.

Disney's  (DIS)  shares look like they may finally have broken out of a defined and narrow trading range (to the upside).

Position: Long DIS (S) 

The stock market is making less and less sense to me recently.

So I am doing much less trading/investing.

I'm selling some more Citigroup  (C)  at $124.27.

Position: Long C (VS)

I'm selling some more Microsoft  (MSFT)  at $380.20 and Morgan Stanley  (MS)  at $177.28.

Position: Long MSFT (VS), MS (VS)

- NYSE volume 21% below its one-month average;

- Nasdaq volume 17% below its one-month average;

- VIX index: up 3.12% to 19.83

None.

More index shorts:

*  (SPY)  $679.09

*  (QQQ)  $611.26

Short SPY common VS QQQ common VS

Added to index shorts on the rally off the lows:

* (SPY)  $677.40

*  (QQQ)  $609.51

Short SPY common VS QQQ common VS

For years I have questioned (in my Diary, on Fin TV and on Twitter) why Cathie Wood is given a frequent forum in the business media.

By my count I have written over 30 articles highlighting how she has eviscerated over $13 billion in investors' capital in her exchange-traded fund,  (ARKK) . (This destruction ranks No. 1 in all active exchange funds of all-time).

This morning, Quoth The Raven "talks my book" on Cathie Wood:

Why Has No One Held Cathie Wood Accountable?

Run, don't walk to read his analysis.

None.

Oppenheimer upgrades Blackstone  (BX)  on 'current dislocation' in shares Oppenheimer upgraded Blackstone to Outperform from Perform with a $154 price target. Blackstone is a "high-quality company that is now relatively cheap on our 2027 earnings estimates," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Oppenheimer believes the "current dislocation" in the shares is giving investors a chance to buy the industry's "premier franchise at a very attractive valuation."

Meta  (META)  Platforms price target lowered to $805 from $820 at Stifel Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $805 from $820 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is tweaking estimates across its internet coverage to account for the potential impact of the Iran war.

Alphabet  (GOOGL)  price target lowered to $387 from $395 at Stifel Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Alphabet to $387 from $395 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is tweaking estimates across its internet coverage to account for the potential impact of the Iran war. Occidental price target raised to $67 from $64 at UBS UBS raised the firm's price target on Occidental to $67 from $64 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. While noting that Occidental remains exposed in the Middle East with operations at Al Hosn suspended, the analyst says in a preview that outside of this the firm expects "another strong operational update.”

Petco  (WOOF)  downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs downgraded Petco to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged price target of $3.83. The company has improved its margins and free cash flow, but its sales growth "is still a show-me story," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Petco is still underperforming peers in a "very competitive industry." This could impact the company's plan to return to growth in 2026, contends Goldman. 

Nike  (NKE)  downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC HSBC analyst Erwan Rambourg downgraded Nike to Hold from Buy with a price target of $48, down from $90. The firm says the company's turnaround is now a "show me story with no short-term catalysts." Weakness in Nike's Converse brand, China and Europe, Middle East, and Africa, and sportswear continues to weigh on the the company's recovery. HSBC cites limited visibility for the downgrade.

Long META VS GOOGL VS. Short WOOF VS

Upside:

-ALLO +66% (reports Interim Futility Analysis from Pivotal ALPHA3 Trial Showing 58.3% MRD Clearance with Cemacabtagene Ansegedleucel (Cema-Cel) vs. 16.7% in Observation Arm in First-Line Consolidation LBCL)

-RVMD +34% (Daraxonrasib demonstrates overall survival benefit in Phase 3 RASolute 302 Clinical Trial in Patients with Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer)

-ALMU +27% (awarded >$4M in U.S. Government contracts for quantum and datacom scaling)

-SYRE +25% (SPY001 met primary endpoint with a statistically significant reduction of 9.2 points (p<0.0001) from baseline at Week 12 in Robart’s Histopathology Index (RHI) score)

-ERAS +20% (momentum)

-IDYA +13% (Phase 2/3 OptimUM-02 met the primary endpoint in first-line HLA-A*02:01-negative metastatic uveal melanoma)

-LEG +8.8% (to be acquired by Somnigroup International in an all-stock transaction valued at ~$2.5B)

-TLX +5.5% (announces Radiopharma collaboration agreement with Regeneron under which the co. will receive $40M upfront and $2.1B in possible additional payments)

-SWMR +4.1% (Boutique Firm Initiates SWMR with Buy, price target: $60)

-ON +3.8% (Tier1 firm Raised ON to Buy from Neutral, price target: $85 from $70)

-AVT +3.3% (Truist Raised AVT to Buy from Hold, price target: $80)

-DIOD +2.9% (Truist Raised DIOD to Buy from Hold, price target: $98)

-MRVL +2.4% (B. Riley Securities, Inc Reiterates MRVL with Buy, price target: $156 from $135)

Downside:

-REPL -64% (confirms RP1 melanoma BLA gets FDA complete response letter; Company to cut jobs and scale back U.S. manufacturing)

-PLCE -17% (earnings)

-GS -4.7% (earnings)

-GFL -4.0% (SES.CA to be acquired by GFL at $24.75/shr)

-FAST -3.0% (earnings, guidance)

-NXPI -2.6% (Tier1 firm Cuts NXPI to Neutral from Buy, price target: $230 from $245)

None.

Treasury Auctions

11:30 a.m.: Treasury hosts an $89B 3 and a $77B 6-Month Bill Auction

Fed Speakers

1 p.m.: Fed Bank of Chicago President Goolsbee (Non-Voter) Television Appearance -- FOX News: America Reports;

6:20 p.m.: Fed Board Governor Miran (Voter) participates in conversation before the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: "An Agenda for Europe and the United States,"Washington, DC

Economic Calendar for Week

None.

From JPMorgan:

US: Futs are lower but SPX / NDX futs have retraced more than 50% of their overnight losses as the failure to secure a deal and subsequent US blockade spike energy prices; but, the market continues to price in a resolution leading to a lower than expected set of global losses. The situation remains a race against the clock with the world on the brink of an economic calamity; Natasha updates the timeline with impacts from shorts becoming more acute this week and through early May. Pre-mkt, bond yields are +2bp as USD has its first gain in a week. Cmdtys are higher led by Ags and Energy with precious metals under pressures as the USD rallies. In Eqys, Mag7 names are weaker with Defensives leading Cyclicals ex-Energy. The macro data focus is on Existing Home Sales.

and...

JPM MARKET INTEL EQUITY & MACRO NARRATIVE

The initial day of talks did not end with an agreement and VP Vance and the US delegation returned home. The ceasefire remains intact based on news that two US Naval vessels traversed the SoH without kinetic incident, however, two super tankers initially reported to have made it through the SoH appear to have turned around. While the kinetic portion of the ceasefire holds SoH traffic is still constrained.

WHAT’S NEXT? From the US perspective, it appears to be about both gaining access to Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and Iran not charging a toll. One phrases to keep in mind, “We need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,”. The first part of the sentence is something Iran had agreed to under the deal with Obama and is part of the language in the non-nuclear proliferation treaty. The second part seems to be targeting the uranium stockpile. The key for markets is that discussions have not been fully closed, and we are of the view that a deal is eventually made but look for some near-term volatility.

Sunday morning, Trump said that the US will create a blockade around the SoH preventing any ships from entering or leaving. Further, the US will perform an interdiction to any ship that has paid a toll to Iran. Lastly, Trump says that the blockade will begin shortly and promised a heavy, violent reaction to “any Iranian who fires at the US”. This will add to the initial volatility and downdraft in risk assets, but we think a deal remains the most likely outcome but perhaps with some ‘gunboat diplomacy’ first. The impact will be to reprice energy prices higher, removing the discounts from bearish energy bets due to the perceived high likelihood of a deal.

We are Tactically Bullish (with some nuance as described above). Given the breakdown in talks and Trump’s moves to choke off residual flows to Iran-allied countries, the initial reaction should be for a sell-off in risk assets as energy prices rise and for headline risk to inject volatility. As talks resume we think it most likely that the 2-week ceasefire is extended or that an agreement is made before the deadline. The major driver of the view are steps to normalize the SoH supply chain crunch. Combine that with (i) a macro picture that remains resilient based on the strength of household and corporate balance sheets with potential tailwinds from OBBBA and labor productivity; (ii) a strong earnings outlook; and, (iii) a tariff regime that continues to see net effective tariffs trending lower. Risks to this view are (1) the Middle East Conflict fails to reach a deal and then we see escalation; (2) weaker than expected earnings and / or lack of guidance from MegaCap / Large-cap companies; and (3) a spike to bond yields / bond vol likely due to a material shift higher in inflation expectations. Returning the rally, we think markets will begin with an ‘Everything Rally’ similar to that seen on Mar 31 or Apr 8, with investors chasing sectors / sub-sectors hit the most. Look for a return to all-time highs across the major indices, which could happen over the next 2-3 trading sessions. After that, we think a return to fundamentals is warranted; if so, the next stage of the rally depends on Mag7 / MegaCap Tech retaking leadership.

HSBC downgrades Nike  (NKE)  to hold.

I am trying not to state the obvious, not to repeat the standard strategist fare and provide a different perspective on the markets.

I have no intention to fill you up with "group stink."

So, I have little to say this morning that is value added!

Just to write, that the markets remain forgiving:

A Forgiving Market

The one observation I would make today is that — given the plethora of adverse outcomes — Mr. Market is back in a forgiving mood.

Rising interest rates, sticky inflation, credit quality issues (private equity stocks are making a new low), policy issues, geopolitical risks, a massive deficit and growing U.S. debtload, an equity risk discount and still elevated valuations are being dismissed by ever-optimistic market participants (men, women and machines).

BY Doug Kass · Apr 10, 2026, 11:25 AM EDT

I shorted (very small) the indices (5:20 AM):

*  (SPY)  $675.77

*  (QQQ)  $607.10

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator moves further into overbought at 4.43% vs. 3.30%.