Daily Diary

Stephen GuilfoyleStephen Guilfoyle
DATE:

That's the Ballgame

That was a seemingly quiet "up" day. Both equities and Treasuries rallied nicely. The catalyst? July PPI printed below expectations, both at the headline and at the core, as well as both month over month and year over year. This sets the stage for tomorrow's CPI release, which will matter far more than today's PPI did.

For the day, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite popped for 2.4%. The Tech Sector XLK led the way at +3.1% as 10 of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs closed in the green. Six of these funds gained at least 1%, while only Energy XLE finished in the red. 

Starbucks SBUX easily led the S&P 500 for the day, gaining 18.9% as that firm hired Brian Nicol away from Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG to be the new CEO. CMG was down 7.5% on that news and conversely, was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500.

Turning to U.S. Treasuries, the yield for the 10-Year Note dropped five basis points to 2.65% while the yield for the 2-Year Note dropped eight basis points to 3.95%. Elsewhere, the U.S. Dollar Index was lower, WTI Crude was lower, Gold was up small, Silver was down small, and so was Bitcoin.

That's it for Tuesday. Doug is out for the rest of the week. I will be with you again on Friday. Until then... good luck, happy trading, and God bless.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 4:36 PM EDT

MOC Imbalances

S&P 500: -670 MLN 

NASDAQ 100: -430 MLN 

DOW 30: -75 MLN 

MAG 7: +100 MLN

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 3:54 PM EDT

The Answer Is...

Baseball Trivia Answer

Q) In the modern, post-integration era, one pitcher made 27 starts in one season without winning a game. Name him.

A) Ryne Stanek, currently of the New York Mets, went 0-4 with 1 save in 2019, splitting time between the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins, appearing in 63 games. While with the Rays, he served as the team's "opener," starting 27 games. Yes, this was a dirty trick. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 3:36 PM EDT

You've Waited Long Enough, It's Time for Baseball Trivia

In 1985, I remembered that Jose DeLeon of the Pittsburgh Pirates went 2-19 with a 4.70 ERA in 25 starts. So, I got to thinking if any MLB pitcher had ever made a respectable number of starts without winning a game. There is one. 

In the modern, post-integration era, one pitcher made 27 starts in one season without winning a game. Name him. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 2:26 PM EDT

Tweet of the Afternoon

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1823416464487112998

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 2:15 PM EDT

KeyCorp in a Jam

It's been a troubling 24 hours or so since Monday's early pop in KeyCorp KEY.

I wrote on this name on Monday. I am still long -- up 54% overall, but not liking how it's acting today at all. We'll look for help at the 21-day exponential moving average.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 1:11 PM EDT

Pure Charts for NOW People

Readers will see in the chart below that ServiceNow NOW found support close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its September 2022 through early 2024 rally. This created the flat base the stock has been trading in (be it $200 wide) ever since. 

The stock is currently testing the pivot created by that pattern. 

A take and hold of $840, could unleash prices as high as $940. The line of panic would be the 200-day SMA down around $732.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 11:45 AM EDT

Mid-Morning Tweet

https://twitter.com/amitisinvesting/status/1823373983367991480

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 11:10 AM EDT

Shorting Starbucks

I shorted Starbucks SBUX small after the opening bell. Average price: $93.18.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 9:40 AM EDT

Palantir Enters a New Deal

News has broken that Palantir PLTR will power Surf Air Technologies (who has been a client for three years) as its AI OS. Surf Air, already built upon the Palantir Foundry platform, will develop and sell SurfOS, as the operating system for the air mobility industry. 

Surf Air had already increased revenue per trip by 25% thanks to Palantir's existing technology. Now, Palantir will aid Surf Air expand and sell its tools to multiple brands beyond the air mobility market. 

We see in the chart above that PLTR has been wrestling with a $30 pivot point since last week's earnings release. The stock found staunch support at its 200-day SMA ahead of those earnings, and now sports both a stronger RSI and more bullish-looking daily MACD. 

I am long this stock. It is my seventh largest long position in terms of weighting (of 28). My price target remains $36. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 9:17 AM EDT

Tweet of the Morning

https://twitter.com/MomAngtrades/status/1823333910572642584

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 8:50 AM EDT

July PPI

Headline CPI: +0.1% m/m, +2.2% y/y versus expectations for +0.2% and +2.3%.

Core CPI: 0.0% m/m, +2.4% y/y, versus expectations for +0.2% and +2.7%.

Obviously, this is supportive of the idea that the FOMC can cut short-term rates on September 18. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 8:43 AM EDT

OXY Shares for Sale

Occidental Petroleum OXY announced late Monday that CrownRock Holdings would launch a secondary public offering of more than 29.56 million shares of OXY common stock. 

To be clear, Occidental, which closed a $10.8 billion purchase of CrownRock L.P. this month, is not offering any of its own shares in this offering. CrownRock Holdings seeks to raise $1.7 billion from this sale, which would amount to a 1.2% discount to Monday's closing price. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 8:35 AM EDT

115 Minutes to Go

S&P Futures: +10 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +52 vs. FV.

R2K Futures: -5 vs FV.

US Ten Year Note: 3.9%.

US Two Year Note: 4.01%.

US Three Month T-Bill: 5.19%.

DXY: 103.16, up small.

Gold: $2,503.50, down small.

Silver: $27.83, -0.65%.

WTI Crude:$79.83, -0.29%.

Bitcoin: $58,881, -0.26%.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 7:49 AM EDT

Good Morning Happy People!

Well, Monday was kind of a snooze. Trading volumes have continued to decline since last Monday's yen carry trade mini-panic. At least this morning, Home Depot HD reports and the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release their July data for PPI. That'll likely get the juices flowing and if the juices are going to flow, we had better get ready to rock ourselves.

Dougie is on vacation this week and Chris Versace is doing Chris Versace stuff, so today you are stuck with me, your old buddy, Sarge. Let's hit the ground running. Do what you need to do to get to the peak performance version of who you are. Push-ups? Do 'em. Sit-ups? They suck. That's why we do 'em every day. Because we embrace the suck, we are who we are.

Now go get yourself another cup of Joe and prepare for as much awesomeness as you can handle. They'll come at us in waves today, and in waves they shall fall. 

Rock & Roll. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Aug 13, 2024, 6:23 AM EDT