Our Plan for This Small-Cap Therapeutic Name After Earnings
The story of this firm is not about cash flows.
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On Tuesday morning, $10K Portfolio holding Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) released the firm's fiscal first quarter financial results.
For the period ended March 31, Ocular Therapeutix posted a GAAP EPS of -$0.40 on revenue of $10.785 million. Both of these numbers fell short of Wall Street's expectations. The focus, as one might have expected, was not on the financial underperformance, but on the prospects for AXPAXLI, which is the firm's candidate for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration.
The firm stated that commercial preparedness plans have accelerated as Ocular intends to submit an AXPAXLI NDA based on SOL-1 Week 52 data, subject to ongoing formal discussions with the FDA. The firm also announced plans to host an "Investor Day" on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, in New York City, where key programs and regulatory updates will be provided. To register for Ocular’s 2026 Investor Day, please visit the Investor section of the firm’s website.
The CEO
Executive chair, president and CEO Dr. Pravin U. Dugel commented in the press release:
“2026 is off to a tremendous start for Ocular, driven by the superiority demonstrated with AXPAXLI in the landmark SOL-1 Phase 3 trial in wet AMD. AXPAXLI delivered highly statistically significant, consistent, and superior outcomes with substantially fewer rescues compared to a single dose of aflibercept (2 mg) in SOL-1. The trial not only met a high bar for clinical success, but it also defined a clear, differentiated, and compelling product profile, with data showing unmatched durability combined with a level of sustained disease control that is exceptional. The strength of these data has generated overwhelming enthusiasm across the retina community and reinforces our belief that AXPAXLI has the potential to fundamentally change how wet AMD is treated. We look forward to submitting our NDA based on SOL-1 Week 52 data, subject to our ongoing formal discussions with the U.S. FDA, and are rapidly advancing our commercial readiness efforts.”
Dr. Dugel went on:
“Beyond SOL-1, the recent initiation of enrollment in our SOL-X wet AMD extension trial marks another important milestone and underscores the exceptional execution we are delivering across the AXPAXLI program. Along those lines, SOL-R is progressing expeditiously, with topline data on track for the first quarter of 2027, while HELIOS-3 also remains ongoing. At our upcoming Investor Day on June 17, we look forward to providing further updates on our ongoing trials, key regulatory updates, and our accelerated commercial plans for AXPAXLI. With a strong balance sheet and increasing momentum across the organization, we are well positioned to advance AXPAXLI toward potential approval and to achieve our bold mission of redefining the retina experience.”
The Balance Sheet
I don't think it makes much sense to focus on the statement of operations or the statement of cash flows as they are obviously negative. This stock is about one thing: the pipeline. And the pipeline right now is really about one candidate.
For the quarter, the firm posted a net income/loss of -$88.612 million. Operating cash flow for the quarter printed at -$66 million and for the trailing 12 months stands at -$226.2 million.
Turning to the balance sheet, Ocular ended the period with a cash position of $666.699 million, current assets of $705.995 million and total assets of $732.529 million. Current liabilities add up to $47.683 million and total liabilities less equity amounts to $150.955 million. There are $72.062 million in notes payable on the books. Bottom line? This balance sheet is in fine shape and can suffer several more quarters of cash burn without missing a beat.
Opinion
I am not discouraged at all by what I see. Expectations for firms with such little ability to raise revenue without a currently commercially successful product on the market can be taken with a grain of salt.
Readers will see that OCUL has had trouble in taking back the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the February 2025 into December 2025 rally. The shares have developed a triangle pattern in 2026 that appears to be closing. A closing pattern like this often signals a coming explosive move. Whether this move is higher or lower, a triangle does not signal. The portfolio is not adding to nor cutting back on its exposure at this time. We may buy back our covered call at a profit and write a new covered call for a higher premium if we see something that looks good.
Upcoming Portfolio Earnings
-Snap (SNAP) after the closing bell, Wednesday, May 6
-Rocket Lab (RKLB) after the closing bell on Thursday, May 7
-Velo3D VELO after the closing bell on Thursday, May 7.
-Evolv Technologies (EVLV) after the closing bell on Tuesday, May 12
Tuesday's Intention vs Tuesday's Actual Trade
Intention: Buy 2 shares of (PLTR) at $136.50 or better
Actual trade: Bought 2 shares of PLTR at $135.35
Wednesday's Intention
-Buy back one OCUL $12 June 19 call at $0.45, closing that position
-Sell (write) one OCUL $11 September 18 call at $1.65 or better
These options are illiquid. These are limit orders, not market orders.
Current Positions
Long 50 shares of EVLV at $6.0898. Last sale: $7.33.
Long 25 shares of (MBLY) at $8.92. Last sale: $8.92.
Long 150 shares of OCUL at $8.305. Last sale: $9.69.
Short one OCUL $12 June 19 call at $0.65, Last sale: $0.45.
Long 125 shares of (ONDS) at $9.4749. Last sale: $9.28.
Short one ONDS $13 June 19 call at $0.84. Last sale: $0.33.
Long 10 shares of (PL) at $37.18. Last sale: $38.68.
Long 12 shares of PLTR at $140.30. Last sale: $134.40.
Long 10 shares of RKLB at $65.173. Last sale: $82.56.
Long 125 shares of (SIDU) at $2.725. Last sale: $3.17.
Long 100 shares of SNAP at $5.9034. Last sale: $6.12.
Short one SNAP $7 June 19 call at $0.45, Last sale: $0.37.
Long 175 shares of (SOFI) at $15.9573. Last sale: $16.14.
Short one SOFI August 21 $20 call at $1.02. Last sale: $0.94.
Long 60 shares of VELO at $11.7427. Last sale: $13.40.
Cash: $382.44
Portfolio Value: $10,831.19, +8.3% from inception on March 24.
Related: Should You Set Money Aside for SoftBank’s New AI Play?
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long EVLV, MBLY, OCUL, ONDS, PL, PLTR, RKLB, SIDU, SNAP, SOFI and VELO.
