Oracle Stuns, but Is It Enough to Move the Market Indicators?
Oracle is up more than 10% in aftermarket trading, but will that be enough to get the indicators moving again?
You've reached your free article limit
You've read 0 of 1 free Pro articles.
The Market
Maybe this is it. Maybe the Oracle news after hours will be enough to move the indicators one way or another. I’d love to tell you which way I think they will move, but I honestly don’t know.
Does the Oracle move spark a general rally in tech, even small ones? Or does it do what so many of the big caps do, which is once they get going, they leave everything else in the dust?
If it is the former, well, that’s good news. If it is the latter, then we’re back into the Either/Or Market, although I don’t think we ever left it.
The big test will be if the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index, where I use volume, can finally stop going down. It currently needs a net differential of +2 billion shares (up minus down volume) to halt the decline, and obviously more to turn it back up. It has been pointing down for about six weeks now, so this would be a change.
If a rally in Oracle can drag even the others along with it, then maybe the NYSE McClellan Summation Index can change from the current flat. The chart is shown below.
In any event, the Utes finally rallied, but most of the rally today was not widespread, with breadth down and speculation high.
Now, along with a possible rally from Oracle—or even from the PPI, due out tomorrow—is that the DSI for Nasdaq is now 78. I consider that still neutral, but if it scoots over 80 and starts flirting with 85, we’ll have that to contend with as well. Especially since the DSI for the VIX is back to 20.
In other words, we’re in a situation where if the indicators go from flat to up (or down to up) it’s going to turn sentiment from neutral to giddy. But something’s gotta give!
New Ideas
Gold had a reversal after coming oh so close to 340. I still lean toward taking a few profits there. But when it comes to my friend XME, I think it is overdue for a good whack.
Since I said I thought Coreweave should bounce I was asked about another recent IPO, Circle Internet CRCL. It’s hard to call that lower line support but the stock has bounced off it for the last six weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if it got to the upper line, although my guess is I am a few days early on this.
Today’s Indicator
The McClellan Summation Index is discussed above.
Q&A/Reader’s Feedback
Ubiquiti UI is not my kind of chart because it is up so much already. It has a measured target near 625, but boy, is it over-extended in the near term.
I was asked for a measured target for Cipher Mining CIFR, which I liked just prior to my vacation. It measured to the 11-12 area, but I do not chase stocks up twenty percent on the day.
Valvoline VVV is a very pretty base. My only question is if we need a bit more patience with it. Small caps have had a big run, and this hasn’t been able to break out in that time. I’d love to see it mill around for a few more days without breaking 38 and then push on through.
Now that Baidu BIDU has broken out of that base we looked at two weeks ago, the question is if JD.com JD can finally get going. I don’t love chasing stocks, but it sure is shaping up. A pullback to 32 would be good, but it is not a requirement.
