Bitcoin Price Faces Bear Market Test at $74,000

Love him or fade him, traders still stop and listen when Tom Lee talks Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The Fundstrat CIO and chairman of BitMine Immersion (BMNR) took the stage at Consensus Miami on Thursday and, as usual, gave the crowd a pretty direct read on where he thinks this market stands.

We’re all used to seeing Tom on CNBC throwing out aggressive upside targets and talking about face-ripping rallies. But that really wasn’t the tone this time. His message at Consensus was calmer and more tactical, focused less on moonshot predictions and more on what Bitcoin is actually doing beneath the surface.

According to Lee, Bitcoin has never remained in a true bear market after posting three consecutive positive monthly closes. And the level he’s watching is straightforward: $76,000. If BTC closes May above $76,000, Lee believes the downtrend from the $126,000 high is officially over.

Now here’s the thing: While I don’t necessarily have a strong opinion on Lee’s “close above $76,000” thesis specifically, I do think the bulls still have the upper hand as long as Bitcoin continues holding above roughly $74,000 on any meaningful pullback.

Back on April 23, while BTC was trading near $78,000, we talked about buying dips against the eight-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). That setup played out almost exactly as expected a few days later. The pullback into the $75,000 area and the rising 21-day EMA was a logical spot for buyers to step in, positioning traders well for the subsequent rally toward the 200-day simple moving average and the 61.8% retracement zone.

My most recent upside target range was $83,500 to $85,000, and Bitcoin came within striking distance of the low end of that range during the latest rally attempt. As long as price continues holding the eight-day and 21-day EMAs, I still think the bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt.

For now, I’m maintaining a bullish trading posture by continuing to buy dips while fading pre-determined resistance zones. My near-term bullish line in the sand remains $74,000. And, just like last time, I’m still looking to reduce exposure into the 200-day SMA area near $82,500 to $83,000 unless we see a clean, convincing breakout through that level.

At the time of publication, Byrne was long IBIT and BTC