* We’re opening our investing notebook to share some of the latest ripped-from-the-headlines signals and confirmation points for our portfolio holdings.
Artificial Intelligence
These signals speak to the opportunity we’re aiming to capture with our positions in Nvidia undefined, Marvell (MRVL) , and Qualcomm (QCOM) .
Revenue from AI semiconductors globally is expected to total $71 billion in 2024, an increase of 33% from 2023, according to the latest forecast from Gartner, Inc. “Today, generative AI (GenAI) is fueling demand for high-performance AI chips in data centers. In 2024, the value of AI accelerators used in servers, which offload data processing from microprocessors, will total $21 billion, and increase to $33 billion by 2028,” Read more here
“We don’t quite realize the impact that this is going to have in businesses and at work because it is just starting,” she said.“But what we’ve seen so far is that over a very short amount of time, these AI systems have entered the workforce as collaborators.” Read more here
“AI is driving one of the most consequential eras of innovation the industry has ever seen,” said Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger in a statement. “The magic of silicon is once again enabling exponential advancements in computing that will push the boundaries of human potential and power the global economy for years to come.” Read more here
Artificial Intelligence, Safety & Security
Axon Enterprise (AXON) management has talked about its AI efforts, and this starts to give us some idea as to what it may be targeting as part of its larger public safety offering.
“Cities like San Jose, California; Portland, Oregon; and Austin, Texas have already deployed programs with AI-based virtual agents that answer simple questions and assist with call-taking and information gathering for nonemergency calls.[1] Several technology companies have also partnered with law enforcement agencies to allow users to send pictures and real-time data through app-based platforms. [2] AI has transformed how we collect, process and analyze information.” Read more here
Consumer Inflation Fighters
These signals crystalize the comments from retail companies about consumers being more choosey, with the first signal giving some insight as to why. The second signal explains why Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) have been able to pick up share compared to others. Should we see more signs pointing to slowing consumer spending, we’ll factor that into our thinking for Mastercard (MA) and its transaction volume prospects.
“According to the San Francisco Fed, households burned through the last of their $2.1trn of pandemic-era excess savings in March. The drawdown has pushed more and more to rely on credit cards to meet their outgoings, and some are now struggling to repay debts. Paul Siegfried of Transunion, a credit bureau, estimates that since April last year, 440,000 credit card holders have been downgraded to subprime status. Accounts are becoming delinquent at a pace last seen in 2011.” Read more here
“A CNET Money survey revealed 188 million American adults have postponed significant purchases as inflation and higher prices take a continued toll on their wallets… Milden notes essentials like groceries and gas are the main drivers of consumers' strained wallets, according to the survey. She notes Americans are continually "surprised by what they're having to pay for essentials," forcing them to cut back on savings for "longer-term goals." Read more here
“Dollar General has been struggling with budget-stretched Americans switching to less profitable consumables and unwilling to spend on non-essential items such as home goods and apparel. "Our customer continues to be very value-driven," CFO Kelly Dilts said on a post-earnings call. "We expect sales mix pressure to be above our original expectation." Read more here
“Amazon is slashing grocery prices by up to 30% in hopes of luring inflation-weary customers — following in the footsteps of other major retailers such as Target and Walmart. The company said that it will reduce prices of 4,000 items at its Amazon Fresh grocery stores online as well as at its handful of brick-and-mortar locations.” Read more here
Cybersecurity
More support for why we continue to be owners of the First Trust Nasdaq Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) in the portfolio.
“TikTok reportedly dealt with a recent security breach when hackers targeted well-known brands and celebrities on the platform. The hackers sent malicious links through private messages to hijack prominent accounts on the ByteDance-owned social media platform…” Read more here
“Cisco announced a series of new security offerings at Cisco Live 2024, designed to establish itself as a leader in defense capabilities powered by artificial intelligence (AI)… Two of the announcements concerned the capabilities of Cisco’s new Hypershield security platform. Unveiled at the RSA Conference 2024 show in April, Hypershield is a security architecture that the company describes as “designed to defend modern, AI-scale data centers.” Read more here
“The average breach now costs $4.45 million, according to IBM, a 15 percent increase over the past three years. Those costs include any ransom paid to an attacker, plus injury to customer trust, stock price declines, intellectual property loss, and more.” Read more here
“Live Nation confirmed in a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Friday that its subsidiary Ticketmaster has suffered a data breach… "Ticketmaster accounted for at least 70% of the total face value associated with all tickets sold at large arenas and amphitheaters." In stark contrast, "no other rival ticketed more than 14%." Read more here
Data Privacy
While we do not have a current portfolio position geared toward Data Privacy, this signal reminds us it is a potential pitfall of AI adoption.
“Microsoft introduced a new series of products, named Copilot+ PCs, that are designed to be integrated with artificial intelligence technology in mind… But the new AI device features have raised privacy concerns. In particular, one feature that Microsoft refers to as “Recall” allows the device to take snapshots of a person’s screen every few seconds. These screenshots are encrypted and then stored locally on the individual’s device.” Read more here
Digital Infrastructure
This signal puts another dimension around data center growth, a key driver for our Nvidia and Marvell positions.
“In our world of unceasing connectivity, the reliance on data center operations is skyrocketing, magnifying the indispensability of the resources they provide every moment.” When the construction boom is complete, the total number of data centers in operation will have increased by 57 percent, according to the report, with each respondent operating 22 data centers on average, up from 14 today.” Read more here
Homebuilding & Materials
We’ve kept D.R. Horton (DHI) and Builders FirstSource (BLDR) in the Bullpen for when the time is right, but this signal suggests more patience may be required.
“The US housing market — long crippled by an inventory drought — is finally starting to see listings rise. But now, in many places, the buyers just aren’t showing up. Sellers are grappling with the fact that higher-for-longer rates are choking off demand during what’s typically the key season for the market. And more of those owners are cutting asking prices than any time since November 2022 as inventory grows stale, according to Redfin Corp.” Read more here
Safety & Security
The first signal speaks to defense spending prospects outside the U.S. for Lockheed Martin (LMT) . We referenced the second in Wednesday’s video when we discussed AXON shares and prospects for the company’s body cameras outside of public safety applications.
“The number of NATO members meeting the military alliance’s defense spending benchmark could reach 23 nations this year — an all-time high prompted by the war in Ukraine, the U.S. permanent representative to NATO said Monday.” Read more here
“Retail giant TJX, the parent of TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods, said it’s equipping some store employees with body cameras to thwart shoplifting and keep customers and employees safe. TJX finance chief John Klinger disclosed the body-camera initiative on an earnings call last month. “It’s almost like a de-escalation, where people are less likely to do something when they’re being videotaped,” he said. TJX isn’t alone. In a survey of major chains by the National Retail Federation last year, 35% of US retailers said they were researching body cameras for employees.” Read more here
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long NVDA, MRVL, QCOM, AXON, WMT, COST, MA and CIBR.