Here's Why We're Lifting Our Price Target for This Gold ETF
We're also increasing several panic points and updating a number of EPS expectations.
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* We’re lifting our SPDR Gold ETF price target to $230 as well as our panic points for Applied Materials, Nvidia, and Qualcomm.
* We’re also updating our table of EPS expectations and paint points for our portfolio holdings.
* Calendar consensus EPS forecasts moved up for Nvidia and three other portfolio holdings as well as the S&P 500.
In today’s Daily Rundown video, we said we would be using the slow start to the week to revisit a few things. The first is our price target for SPDR Gold ETF GLD shares to $230 from $220 following what we saw in last week’s Flash May PMI report on inflation, but also the upward trend in prices for several commodities, including copper.
Given the upside, our Two rating remains, and a better level to potentially add some additional GLD may be closer to the 50-day moving average near $214.
Consensus EPS Expectations
In our opening comments today, we called out the increase in calendar 2024 and 2025 EPS expectations for Nvidia NVDA, and those increases are fueling this latest move in those shares. For now, our price target remains $1,250 but we will revisit that based on what we find in Taiwan Semi’s TSM May revenue report which should be in the next few weeks.
Following that beat and raise earnings report from Nvidia, we did not see any movement in calendar consensus EPS expectations for Marvell MRVL. This likely means we’ll see some catch-up by Wall Street after Marvell reports its quarterly results after Thursday’s market close.
We did see calendar 2025 consensus EPS for Qualcomm QCOM inch up to $11.40 from $11.34, which suggests Wall Street is coming around and starting to recognize Qualcomm’s expanding presence in the PC market following the AI-on-device upgrade cycle.
Morgan Stanley sees AI PC penetration at 2% this year, rising to 16% next year, and 28% in 2026. Research firm Canalys has a far more aggressive view, with 100 million PCs in 2025, roughly 40% of the market.
Our view is that we are in the early innings for this, and comments from HP HPQ and Dell DELL later this week should offer more insight into the expected ramp. As we get those, we’ll revisit our QCOM and Microsoft MSFT targets as needed.
We also saw Labcorp LH and Alphabet (GOOGL) see their calendar 2025 EPS expectations inch higher to $15.97 and $8.60 from $15.92 and $8.57, respectively. LH shares are on our shopping list, and the recent pullback hasn't gone unnoticed.
Turning to the S&P 500, market forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 moved up week over week to $244.66 and $278.84 from $243.99 and $277.83, respectively. Some of that reflects the impact of boosted forecasts for Nvidia, which at 5.89% of the S&P 500 is its third largest constituent behind Microsoft and Apple AAPL.
What stands out to us in these revisions is the expected acceleration in EPS growth for the S&P 500 to 14% in 2025 compared to $11% this year. Those lifted expectations for QCOM, GOOGL, and others also explain some of that upward revision.
Panic Points
The recent moves in NVDA, QCOM, and Applied Materials AMAT have played a part in lifting the portfolio, but those moves have also given us some room to adjust our panic points for those holdings.
We are taking our NVDA panic point to $875 from $760.
QCOM’s is upped to $175 from $160.
The panic point for Applied Materials is now set at $180 from $175.
We will continue to adjust these levels for other holdings as needed.
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long GLD, NVDA, AMAT, QCOM, MRVL, MSFT, LH, AAPL.
