After-Hours % Advancers

After-Hours % Decliners

Closing Volume

– NYSE volume 7% above its one-month average  

– NASDAQ volume 19% above its one-month average  

– VIX index:  down 3.53% to 17.78

Breadth

S&P 500 Sectors

% Movers

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

Closing S&P 500 Heat Map

I wrote this late Friday afternoon and some may have not seen it. It “bears” reading:

Thoughts on My ‘Low Drama’ Shorts — And One in Particular

I spend a lot of time discussing my index trading short rentals. I do this daily and trade SPY and QQQ in size. Short-term market views (which form the basis for these shorts) are a popular and even controversial topic. Like butts, everyone has an opinion on the market — so the audience for an index “view” is sizeable.  

And I often short overbought and popular market leaders (with very extended RSIs like MU and INTC) where people have strong opinions on the long and short side.

These shorts are attention catching and tend to be tough shorts — particularly in the momentum-driven market of the last decade.

But, I don’t spend enough time discussing my individual (and often “low drama”) investment shorts — companies that sell simple and understandable products (widgets) whose secular prospects and business landscape are changing for the worst. These would include multi-year investment shorts like CHGG, DNUT, FIGS, BXMT, SNBR, RICK, FXLV, etc.

Case in point, my Winnebago (WGO) short.  

Check out WGO’s stock chart and the steady drop in share price.  As I wrote, it is a “low drama” and successful short based on the juxtaposition of several factors:

* Pressure on the K-shaped economy moving up vertically, towards the middle and upper-middle class that, traditionally, are among the target recreational vehicle buyers.

* The steady rise in the price of oil has pressured RV sales.

* Another headwind is the large rise in the cost of the average recreational vehicle — making purchases less attainable and reducing the total addressable market.

That said, when I was driving harness horses I owned a Minnie Winnie (Winnebago) that took me all around the country for stakes races. Back then, gas was a bit more than $1/gallon and the Winnebago cost me about $30,000. Today the price of gas can be 5 to 6x that price and a motorized RV costs between $50,000 up to over $600,000!

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS), MU (S), INTC (S), CHGG (VS), DNUT (VS), FIGS (VS), BXMT (VS), SNBR (VS) RICK (VS), FXLV (VS), WGO (S)

BY Doug Kass · May 15, 2026, 3:08 PM EDT

Position: Short WGO (S)

Earnings Reports After the Close Monday (sorted by $ Market Cap)

Earnings Before the Open Tuesday May 19 (sorted by $ Market Cap)

Johnthegreek

With all due respect to my friend Doug, if “being early” means missing out on profits it is not “right as rain.”

I think DK may agree. 

Dougie Kass

jtg

Like some, I don’t dwell on the mistakes I have made in the past.  There is no percentage in doing that.

As I regularly write I make many mistakes and I am always in doubt.

I show my own primary analysis for subscribers and they can determine the merit. (Unlike others I don’t rely entirely on AI to explain my positions, I do it “bottoms us and top down.” And unlike others I don’t repeat the same thought/criticism ad nauseum – it becomes a “cause” for those people.)

I show most of my trades and investments in real time.

I admit to my mistakes and I try to limit the self congratulations.

To me, it is my analysis that has value to subscribers – as I often provide a logical, thoughtful and contrarian view.  From there, subs should use their own knowledge, rely on others that they trust and weight all this in coming down to investment conclusions.

dougie

I covered the balance of my individual technology shorts for some good profits:

* AMD $416.30 (-$6)

* NVDA  $221.08

* MU  $$680.95 (-$42)

* SNDK $1,291.61 (-$115)

* INTC $106.42 (-$2)

Position: None

From Peter Boockvar:

Builder sentiment a bit better but mood still sour

The May NAHB home builder sentiment survey rose 3 pts to 37 and better than the estimate of no change but still remaining well below the breakeven of 50. The key component that is Prospective Buyers Traffic on the demand side rose 3 pts after falling by a like amount in April but at just 25, it’s half the breakeven level.

The NAHB said “The housing market remains soft as higher mortgage rates, rising gas prices and economic uncertainty related to the war in Iran continue to dampen buyer demand.”

On what builders are doing to drive better demand, “The latest HMI survey also revealed that 32% of builders cut prices in May, down from 36% in April. The average price reduction was 6%, up from the 5% figure in April. The use of sales incentives was 61% in May, up slightly from 60% in April, and marking the 14th consecutive month this share has reached 60% or higher.”

Bottom line, nothing new here as we know all about the affordability challenges that particularly afflicts the young first time buyer. And now we have another move up again in mortgage rates.

NAHB

Prospective Buyers Traffic

Position: None

This morning I bought back MSOS at $4.36. 

I correctly wrote recently (after the president’s rescheduling update) that retail didn’t likely have the firepower to sustain a rally in cannabis.

This turned out prescient as MSOS is -20% from just 10 days ago.

Nonetheless, we are moving rapidly towards a broader rescheduling and, after all, everything has a price.  

I am also adding to VRNO, GTIBF, GLASF and TSNDF.

Position: Long MSOS (S), GITB (VS), TSNDF (VS) GLASF (S), VRNO (VS)

Positions: None.

Friday’s consumer staples paying off on Monday.

From Friday:

Long Staples

I have moved to medium-sized long (from small) in (PEP), (KMB) and (PG) this morning.

Positions: Long PEP M KMB M PG M

BY Doug Kass · May 15, 2026, 10:29 AM EDT

Positions: Long PEP M KMB M PG M

Covering half of my tech shorts:

AMD (AMD) $415.24 (-$9)

MU (MU) $694.96 (-$30)

INTC  (INTC) $107.04 (-$1.50)

SNDK $1316 (-$91) 

Positions: Short AMD VS MU VS INTC VS SNDK VS 

Chart from 9:45 a.m. ET

Positions: None.

I covered my Index shorts on the reversal for a quick and nice profit:

* SPY (SPY) $738.43
* QQQ (QQQ) $707.69

From earlier:

DDougie Kass

39m ago

Added to Index shorts:  

SPY $741.03

QQQ $712.72

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

Debts & deficits do now matter/Rig count/Luxury/Pricing/Euphoria (not the show)/China

After the breakout in global bond yields Friday, they continue higher today, albeit more modestly. It started in Japan as yields there moved up again, particularly the longer end of their curve with the 30 yr yield up another 6 bps to 4.10% and the 40 yr yield higher by 9 bps to 4.34%. Evidence that excessive debts and deficits now matter, as one of the factors leading to higher yields, the move up today was in response to talk that the Takaichi government was going to ask for a supplementary budget to cover the extra subsidies for its people to cushion the blow of higher commodity costs, particularly energy. This would entail more bond issuance.

This is also helping to boost the US 30 yr bond yield to a 19 year high at 5.13%.

JGB 30 yr Yield

US 30 yr Yield

We finally got a lift in the Baker Hughes crude oil rig count of 5 rigs to 415, the most since last November but still well below the 465 seen one year ago and the 497 two years ago.

Crude Oil Rig Count

Soybean prices are rebounding by 2%, after falling last week, on news of Chinese purchases coming over the next three years. I believe we’re in the early stages of an ag bull market that will join industrial and precious metals along with energy.

Good timing to start hearing from retailers about the state of their consumers just as the XRT, the equal weight retail ETF, is just off the lowest level since last November. Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s, TJX, Ross Stores, and BJ Wholesale all divulge earnings this week. And of course Nvidia, whose earnings news and stock reaction could singlehandedly impact the sales of the above since it is so widely held with its $5.5 trillion market cap.

XRT

Speaking of the US consumer, this is what Simon Property Group, the major mall owner and operator said last week on their earnings call:

“Clearly, the upper end consumer is doing very well. You could look at the stock market, that should not be a surprise. And so, you’re obviously seeing that in the luxury business, with some of the brands, frankly, that might have been a little bit softer in the past couple of years, now starting to see some rebounds. But really, you’re seeing it in the hard luxury and jewelry and watches, really, really solid growth.”

They were also positive on the Gen Z customer and the stores that are catering to them.

But, “The only thing I would say that is a touch softer is on the food and beverage side, which is basically what’s flat from a comp perspective. And so, that’s probably not surprising seeing some of the earnings from the restaurant groups out there. But whether it’s a trading down effect, maybe one less trip out, that’s the only place we’re seeing it. But the rest of it is broad based growth. Obviously, athleisure is still very strong across the portfolio.”

“The only other thing I guess I could say on sales is the tourist market that really rely on the European and Canadian international traveler, that is a touch softer.”

These were some comments from International Flavors & Fragrances, a stock we own, from their call a few weeks ago but I highlight because of what they said on how they are managing the rise in cost inputs and the consumer price inflation that is to come:

“As a result of the ongoing Middle East conflict, inflationary pressures are expected to build over the course of 2026. We are proactively working with our customers to offset these pressures through pricing actions, starting with surcharges related to logistics and energy costs and then building to account for raw material inflation. In terms of phasing, we expect these inflationary trends to adversely impact profitability in the second quarter of 2026, where costs will begin to increase, and our pricing actions are not fully implemented. Post Q2, we expect this pressure to gradually ease through the back half of the year as pricing actions take full effect.”

“our pricing in our industry is a strong part of our algorithm in the sense that it’s the part of where we do business. And so consistent with historical inflationary cycles, we collaborate with our customers to fully offset any inflation, and usually it’s a 12-18 month period. I do not expect anything materially different this time around as we continue to engage and work with the customers there.”

The Citi Panic/Euphoria index is now very Euphoric with this gauge now at .82, double the .41 Euphoria threshold. I had to go back to 2021 to find a reading above that. Assume this was taken before Friday’s selloff and worth noting and being aware of one’s sentiment surroundings.

China released its April economic data and it was weak across the board but with signs of hope that home price declines are lessening. Retail sales rose just .2% y/o/y vs the estimate of 2.0% and vs 1.7% in March. Industrial production slowed to a 4.1% y/o/y gain vs 5.7% in March and below the forecast of up 6%. Fixed asset investment ytd y/o/y declined and property investment fell by almost 14% (which is good from a supply perspective though).

With home prices, less bad is now the focus. With new homes, prices fell in 49 cities m/o/m vs 54 in March, 53 in February and 62 in January. With existing homes, 54 of 70 cities saw more m/o/m price declines vs 53 in March, 66 in February, 67 in January and in all 70 in December. Stocks in Shanghai were flat but down in Hong Kong by 1.1%. We’re still long some stocks in Hong Kong.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

With S&P futures hitting a low of-60 handles last night, they have rallied to only -5 handles.

I am back shorting:

* SPY $738.54

* QQQ $709.46

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS) 

Wolf Street howls about “slugflation.”