CBS News is saying that U.S. intelligence see indications that Iran is employing mines in the Strait of Hormuz:
NEWS via @CBSNews: U.S. intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry 2 to 3 mines each. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years…
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs)
S&P cash is now -5 handles after being up around +45 handles (where we were shorting).
I used this whoosh to buy (SPY) and (QQQ) common to offset (now delta neutral) my expanded short call position. Here are the buys:
* Sold (SPY) and (QQQ) 6 a.m. when futures were under pressure, bought back at 8:15 a.m., when the swung 57 handles higher and sold calls then, as well (moving to small net short). With S&P cash -28 handles (just now at 10) I have added back common and now back to delta neutral in the indexes.
Boockvar on Oil Pain Point, War, Hormuz Strait Closure
From Peter Boockvar:
Around $100 a barrel the apparent pain point/NFIB/Other notables
We of course hope the definition of ‘very soon’ with respect to this war (or short-term excursion) ending means days or weeks but either way, it’s apparent that around $100 oil is the pain point for the policy here in terms of resolution/timing. I know many are with their calculators and models trying to figure out the economic impact of higher energy prices, notwithstanding the drop this week, but the direction of the stock market in response to everything going on should be part of the calculus too. We know upper income spend has been a major contributor to economic growth and so goes the stock market, so goes that spending. Whenever someone gives me their economic forecast I always need to ask what their S&P 500 price target is because they have become one in the same.
It will certainly be great for the flow of product again when this war ends as we learn more about the broad impact of the Strait closure. I read yesterday in an article in Nikkei News, “Mitsubishi Chemical Group has reduced production of ethylene in Japan, the company said Monday, as the Iran was hampers its ability to procure raw material naphtha...Of the naphtha used in Japan, 40% is domestically produced and 60% is imported. The Middle East accounts for about 70% of the imports.”
I asked Gemini “what are the uses of ethylene?” and it told me it “is a crucial industrial hydrocarbon primarily used as a chemical intermediate in manufacturing plastics, particularly polyethylene, which is used for packaging, bottles and pipes. It is also essential for producing ethylene oxide (for antifreeze/polyester) and vinyl chloride (for PVC). In agriculture, it acts as a plant hormone for ripening fruits like bananas and tomatoes.”
In other words, the world’s economy can’t handle a prolonged shutdown of the Hormuz Strait.
While we’re seeing the reversal of the ‘war trade’, I still remain bullish and long commodities. I’ve argued this year that the precious/industrial metal bull market was going to widen out to energy and ag and it certainly has and believe it still to be the case even with any cessation of the war. We should be adding oil, gas, products and fertilizers to the ‘critical mineral’ list and I’m sure many countries are going to be creating/adding to any strategic reserves of this stuff for a while to come.
The February NFIB Small Business Optimism index fell .5 pt m/o/m to 98.8, the lowest since October. Of particular note was the 4 pt drop in Plan to Hire which matches the lowest level since March 2024 and is just one point from matching the Covid shutdown lows of 2020. Those that are working though maybe are getting paid more because Net Compensation rose for a 3rd month to the highest since March 2025. Future comp plans held at 22% which is right in line with the 6 month average. Positions Not Able to Fill rose 2 pts after falling by 2 pts last month.
Those that Expect Better Economy fell 3 pts to 18% and is back below its 6 month average of 20%. Those that Expect Higher Sales got cut in half to 8%, a four month low while those that said it’s a Good Time to Expand was unchanged.
Capital spending plans were unchanged at 18%, holding at the lowest level since 2010 notwithstanding the tax incentives to increase CapEx via the accelerated depreciation and expensing provisions. Those that Plan to Increase Inventory held at -2% and negative for a 5th straight month.
The Positive Earnings Trend component improved by 7 pts to the best since 2021. On the inflation side, Higher Selling Prices slipped by 2 pts to 24% and compares with the half yr average of 27%. Its recent low was 21% and got to 34% in November.
The single biggest problem of small business owners is taxes and I wonder if tariffs are a part of this as the NFIB doesn’t specify.
Bottom line, a mixed bag of components and the reduction in hiring plans but firm compensation for those employed stand out.
NFIB
Plan to Hire
Compensation
Capital Spending
There wasn’t much noteworthy in the February Consumer Expectations Survey from the NY Fed as the main components were little changed and with the subsequent war with Iran and market response since, it’s kind of old news just as the NFIB survey is. https://www.newyorkfed.org
Vail Resorts had a tough quarter particularly because of a dramatic reduction in snowfall out West which I got to see first hand in Park City a few weeks ago (though the skiing was still great). They said of note:
“This quarter and our full year outlook reflect the challenges we faced this season, including the most difficult weather environment in the Rockies we have ever seen, with snowfall and snowpack at or near all time historic lows, even worse than fiscal year 2012, which had previously been our season with the worst conditions in the Rockies.” On the other hand, the Northeast had its best snowfall in years where they do own some mountains.
I think they also have a pricing issue as this is a very expensive sport but they are trying to address. “Most notably, we introduced new pricing for skiers and riders ages 13 to 30 at 20% less than standard pricing, providing a more accessible pathway for the next generation of skiers who are the future of our sport.”
“For our broader array of passes, we announced 3% to 4% price increases for Epic and Epic local passes before taxes.” This includes the 20% discount.
HP Enterprise is trading up pre market after earnings and they said this of note:
“We saw strong product orders across Networking, Servers, and Storage, driven by ongoing AI deployment, on premises infrastructure modernization, and some customer pull-ins due to ongoing commodity shortages and price increases.”
“The IT market is facing a sharp acceleration in supply tightness and increasing component costs, most notably in DRAM and NAND. We expect elevated prices to persist well into 2027.” They then laid out various measures they are taking to manage this.
To some overseas data of importance, China’s Jan/Feb export figure rose 22% y/o/y, well better than the estimate of up 7.2%. China we know is relying on exports to drive economic growth but it’s with products companies and countries want like its AI models, EVs and ICE vehicles, robotics, automation equipment, etc...
Yesterday I tweeted that I heard Rubio has become President Trump's @potus favorite son. Well, today, Polymarkets reports that Rubio's popularity is moving (vertically) higher (+17%) and Vance is moving (considerably) lower (-16%) @dougkass@SquawkCNBC@andrewrsorkin@tomkeene…
Remember when the panelists on the shows (especially Slink, Drawdown, Belski et al) universally said an important reason why they were bullish were paper thin credit spreads - that is, there was no systemic risk?
What were they doing in the market to reflect that view - they were buying private equity and credit stocks at or near their highs. Those stocks (Blue Owl (OWL) , Ares (ARES) , (KKR) , Blackstone (BX) , Apollo (APO) , etc. are now -40% or thereabouts. (Many of these stocks I purchased yesterday after the fall as I rent at the sound of cannons).
You will never hear about these investment boners - that is their way.
That is an example "investment vision being 20/20 when viewed in the rear view mirror" and "first level thinking" -- that I have been so critical about.
Here is an update of widening credit spreads and its upwardly sloped trend - which have taken out 7-8 month base:
-INKT +58% (collaboration with C-Further to advance PRAME-targeted iNKT cell therapy for pediatric cancers)
-ZVRA +17% (WGS to launch Genetic Testing Program with Zevra Therapeutics to Support Patients with Suspected Niemann-Pick Disease Type C)
-RXT +11% (Rackspace and Uniphore Announce Strategic Partnership to Define a New Category of Infrastructure-to-Agents Architecture Accelerating Enterprise AI Adoption)
-TDOC +11% (hearing Deutsche Bank Raised TDOC to Buy from Hold, price target: $11)
-NIO +6.8% (earnings, guidance)
-VRTX +6.1% (Week 36 Interim Analysis results achieved Primary and All Secondary Endpoints in RAINIER Phase 3 Trial of Povetacicept in Adults With IgA Nephropathy, achieved a 52.0% reduction from baseline in proteinuria)
-ESPR +5.9% (earnings, guidance)
-QURE +5.1% (momentum following FDA leadership changes)
-HIMS +5.0% (multiple broker upgrades)
-RIVN +4.6% (TD Cowen Raised RIVN to Buy from Hold, price target: $20 from $17)
This sort of frenetic trading in the indexes that I have exhibited in the last few weeks is not for everyone -- but in a Range Bound market it produces, if done successfully, "a cash register effect." (Note: I don't think even Johnny The Greek can follow my frenetic Index trading - but I prefer being transparent than not!)
Last time I checked in on my Index positions I sold my Index longs (against Index calls short) -- when the futures were gapping higher in the premarket early hours -- to go net short in the indexes at around 6 a.m. this morning. An excerpt from my previous post (below).
This morning (at around 5:10 AM), with S&P futures +29 handles (a reversal of almost 60 handles higher from where I bought Monday night) I sold out the index common I bought last night (to go neutral) and now I am back short index calls (net short). Here are my sales prices:
* SPY $681.17 (+$6.30 higher than last night's buys!)
* QQQ $610.81 (+$6.60 higher than last night's buys!)
Here we go again!
I just at 8:15 a.m. repurchased index common with S&P futures -28 handles (a swing of 57 handles since my last trade only about two hours ago!. Here are the long buys (against my short calls) - I am now delta neutral:
* (SPY) $675.70 (-$5.50 lower than this morning's sales!)_
* (QQQ) $605.95 (-$4.90 lower than this morning's sales!)
Dance to the Music
* And to my Monday night and Tuesday morning trading
Hey Greg! (What?) All we need is a drummer For people who only need a beat, yeah!
I'm gonna add a little guitar And make it easy to move your feet
I'm gonna add some bottom So that the dancer there just won't hide
You might like to hear my organ I said, 'ride, sally ride', now
Cynthia (yeah), Jerry! (Go on) If I could a-hear- the horns blow Cynthia on the throne, yeah!
Listen to me Cynthia and Jerry got a message, that's sayin' (All the squares, go home!) yeah, yeah!
Listen to the voices
Dance to the music (ha!) Dance to the music (yeah, yeah, yeah) Dance to the music (you do that) (Just like that) dance to the music (yeah!)
As I have repeatedly mentioned this is an ideal market for opportunistic traders — and we had some really good trades over the last twelve hours...
On Monday night at 8:10 p.m. (below) on about a -30-handle drop in futures (following the president's press conference that appeared to dispute the rumor of a ceasefire) I bought back index common against index calls (short) to go delta neutral on the (SPY) and (QQQ) positions. Here were the Index buys:
* SPY $674.88
* QQQ $604.20
Dougie Kass
Monday Night Trading
At 810PM S and P futures are -38 handles (following the Trump conference which negated some of the Iran war catalyst that contributed to the strong afternoon rally).
I went out short SPY and QQQ calls.
I moved to delta neutral (taking a quick profit) by buying SPY and QQQ common against the short calls - after 8PM:
SPY $674.88 (went out at $677.79 at Monday close)
QQQ $604.20 (went out at $606.95 at Monday close)
That was a fast! profit!
This morning (at around 5:10 AM), with S&P futures +29 handles (a reversal of almost 60 handles higher from where I bought Monday night) I sold out the index common I bought last night (to go neutral) and now I am back short index calls (net short). Here are my sales prices:
* SPY $681.17 (+$6.30 higher than last night's buys!)
* QQQ $610.81 (+$6.60 higher than last night's buys!)
#Iran War Update No. 10 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative):
🔹Israeli and American airstrikes continued throughout the day and night in multiple Iranian cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Karaj, and Ahvaz. Reports from Tehran described particularly heavy bombardment…
JUST IN: The Wall Street Journal reports that some of Trump’s advisers are privately urging him to articulate an exit plan from the Iran war. The reason: spiking oil prices and fears of political backlash from a prolonged conflict.
As I have repeatedly mentioned this is an ideal market for opportunistic traders — and we had some really good trades over the last twelve hours...
On Monday night at 8:10 PM (below) on about a -30-handle drop in futures (following the president's press conference that appeared to dispute the rumor of a ceasefire) I bought back index common against index calls (short) to go delta neutral on the (SPY) and (QQQ) positions. Here were the Index buys:
* SPY $674.88
* QQQ $604.20
Dougie Kass
Monday Night Trading
At 810PM S and P futures are -38 handles (following the Trump conference which negated some of the Iran war catalyst that contributed to the strong afternoon rally).
I went out short SPY and QQQ calls.
I moved to delta neutral (taking a quick profit) by buying SPY and QQQ common against the short calls - after 8PM:
SPY $674.88 (went out at $677.79 at Monday close)
QQQ $604.20 (went out at $606.95 at Monday close)
That was a fast! profit!
This morning (at around 5:10 AM), with S&P futures +29 handles (a reversal of almost 60 handles higher from where I bought Monday night) I sold out the index common I bought last night (to go neutral) and now I am back short index calls (net short). Here are my sales prices:
* SPY $681.17 (+$6.30 higher than last night's buys!)
* QQQ $610.81 (+$6.60 higher than last night's buys!)
At today's low, the S&P 500 was down 5.2% from its Jan 28 peak, the 32nd pullback >5% since the March 2009 low.
Each one came with a scary headline.
Each one felt like the end of the world.
But the world didn’t end and the market eventually recovered to hit new highs.
Yesterday I tweeted that I heard Rubio has become President Trump's @potus favorite son.
Well, today, Polymarkets reports that Rubio's popularity is moving (vertically) higher (+17%) and Vance is moving (considerably) lower (-16%) @dougkass@SquawkCNBC@andrewrsorkin@tomkeeneShow more
KKR insider buying: $35.4M across 4 buyers while the stock is -41% from its 52-week high.
Conviction score: 100/100. You don't deploy $35M of personal capital on hope. That's a structural signal.
#Iran War Update No. 10 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative):
🔹Israeli and American airstrikes continued throughout the day and night in multiple Iranian cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Karaj, and Ahvaz. Reports from Tehran described particularly heavy bombardmentShow more
the S&P 500 $SPX is RSI(5) oversold on the weekly chart for the first time since the Mar/Apr '25 period... we typically see this happen once/year...
a reminder that suddenly becoming negative at this(that) point and selling all your stocks, tends to be late...
NEWS via @CBSNews: U.S. intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry 2 to 3 mines each. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the yearsShow more
JUST IN: The Wall Street Journal reports that some of Trump’s advisers are privately urging him to articulate an exit plan from the Iran war. The reason: spiking oil prices and fears of political backlash from a prolonged conflict.
Trump publicly says the campaign is “veryShow more
