Tougher day than I would have liked. Several of my names that have run of late, came in a bit today. Not enough to add back what was sold though, so I did a lot of tape watching, macroeconomic research and technical work. Oh, and baseball. I did think about baseball, as I always try to come up with a difficult but solvable trivia question.

The day started off with a data point that was better than expected... the weekly print for initial jobless claims, and a data point that was not as optimistic as expected. That was the October PPI that was a bit warm to the touch. This forced Fed Chair Jerome Powell to sound a wee bit hawkish this afternoon, which the markets did not like. 

The U.S. Dollar Index was obviously strong again. U.S. Treasuries for the most part rallied early and then sold off on Powell's remarks. Commodities were mostly weak on dollar strength, but Bitcoin held its own. Again.

As for equities, there was blood on the saddle, but not a ton of it. Enough though as ten of the eleven S&P sector SPDR ETFs shaded into the red. Industrials, Health Care, and Discretionaries were the weakest sectors. Tapestry TPR led the S&P 500, up 12.8%, while Leidos LDOS led that index lower at -13.6% in what was a difficult day for defense and aerospace.

Have a nice evening, gang. Doug is expected back tomorrow. That said, it is always nice to be able to fill in for him as his backup QB whenever the opportunity arises.

 God bless you all. 

Question:

Three Oakland A's hurlers pitched 20 or more complete games in 1980, finishing first through third in the MLB in the category. The three won 22, 19, and 16 games and all threw at least 250 innings. Name them.

Answer:

- Rick Langford, 19-12, 3.26, 33GS, 28CG, 290IP

- Mike Norris, 22-9, 2.53, 33 GS, 24 CG, 284 IP, sn in AL Cy Young, narrowly losing to Steve Stone (Balt).

- Matt Keough, 16-13, 2.92, 32GS, 20 CG, 250 IP.

Judy is a Sarge-fave and if I were president would not only be re-nominated to the Fed, not merely as a governor, but as the chair.

The Fed is too powerful and prominent in financial markets: Independent Institute's Judy Shelton

Amazon AMZN broke out from an ascending triangle with a $201 pivot in early November. 

Target price $241.

The former Philadelphia/Kansas City/Oakland Athletics are now homeless. They don't really have the "go-ahead" from Las Vegas just yet and will play for at least the next three years in a minor league stadium in Sacramento, California.

The Athletics have a storied history though, sprinkled with on and off success across their many decades. The 1980 Oakland A's hold the post integration (1947) team record of 94 complete games pitched in a 162 game season. The team went 83-79, finishing in second place in the AL West, managed by Billy Martin.

Three Oakland hurlers pitched 20 or more complete games themselves that year, finishing first through third in the MLB in the category. The three won 22, 19, and 16 games and all threw at least 250 innings. 

Name them. 

No Googling!

 Nvidia's earnings are due Wednesday, November 20. 

NVDA rallied from late October 2023 into June 2024. From there, after the application of a Fibonacci model, we can see that the stock found support at its half-way back (50% retracement, not a true Fib level) level in very early August. If we go back to the start of that model and make use of an Andrews' Pitchfork model, we see that NVDA has developed a tight pattern since leaving that period.

NVDA has taken the central trendline and could threaten to take on the upper trendline of the Pitchfork. This will serve as my moving pivot as we approach earnings...

Nvidia (NVDA)

Target Price: $200

Pivot: Upper trendline of Pitchfork (now $160)

Add: down to 50-day SMA

Panic: loss of 200-day SMA

Regarding Rocket Lab USA RKLB, as some folks are wondering where to add back the shares sold on Wednesday's spike...

New Target Price for Rocket Lab to Match Outstanding Balance Sheet

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB)

Target Price: $23

Pivot: $16.20 (upper trendline of Pitchfork) 

Add: From pivot down to 50-day SMA (currently $10.10)

Panic: On loss of 50-day SMA.

Daniel Lacalle warns that the loose fiscal policies of the Biden administration over the past three to four years may all but ambush the incoming administration: Biden's Economic Time Bomb: A Warning to Trump

Vince Golle on October producer prices and the possibility of upward pressure being placed on the PCE Price Index: US Producer Prices Picked Up in October

Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler spoke publicly from Uruguay this morning:

“This combination of a continued but slowing trend in disinflation and cooling labor markets means that we need to continue paying attention to both sides of our mandate.”

“If any risks arise that stall progress or reaccelerate inflation, it would be appropriate to pause our policy rate cuts. But if the labor market slows down suddenly, it would be appropriate to continue to gradually reduce the policy rate.”

How long have we been hearing of a renewed acceleration in consumer-level inflation late third quarter into first quarter or the second one? Seems like some folks at the Fed are playing catch up.

This morning from Elsa Ohlen of Barrons: Bitcoin Price Eyes $100,000. How the Republican Red Sweep Could Help It Get There. 

S&P Futures: +11 vs. FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +37 vs. FV.

Russell 2000 Futures: +22 vs. FV.

US Dollar Index: 106.79, +0.29%.

US Ten Year Note: 4.45%.

US Two Year Note: 4.28%.

US Three Month T-Bill: 4.5%.

Gold: $2,559, -1.07%.

Silver: $30.04, -2.03%.

Bitcoin: $91,193, +1.58%.

The Walt Disney Company DIS just reported adjusted earnings $1.14 per share on revenue of $22.57 billion. Both were good for beats with sales up 6.3%. 

The company sees double-digit EPS growth for fiscal 2026. The stock is trading up 6.6% ahead of the U.S. open, after gaining 1.7% on Wednesday. 

It's Thursday. An expected, but still unwelcome heat reacceleration in headline CPI for October. Stubbornly high core CPI. A solidified government. PPI straight ahead. Oh, and the Juan Soto sweepstakes. Anything else? You betcha.

Doug is off on business today. He'll be back, with the good grace of a merciful God on Friday. Until then, you wonderful kids are going to be stuck with me, your old buddy — Sarge. You know what that means. Everyone spread out a little so that an errant grenade only kills one of us. Now, drop and give me what you've got. I know we're all getting older. If you've got 75 or just 10, I want 'em. Give them to me. When your shoulders scream for mercy, roll over, crunches or sit-ups. Begin. Until exhaustion. Excellent.

Now at least when they come over the berm, you'll be ready. Remember. "Front Towards Enemy" means exactly that. Don't screw it up. Everything for a reason you could explain to a nitwit. Targets, pivots and panic points on everything. This way, there will be no emotion. No love for a stock that cannot love you back. No hate for a stock that never heard of you. No nothing. Just ice water in the veins as one executes one's plan.

Roughly 90 days until pitchers and catchers depending on the franchise. Oakland and Tampa Bay are likely to play in minor league ballparks. Should be interesting. Still on the deck. Get up. This is a markets-based blog. Don't hurt yourself. Now, we drink coffee and prepare for the day ahead. Onward.