Closing Volume

- NYSE volume 8% below its one-month average;

- NASDAQ volume 4% below its one-month average

- VIX: down 8.74% to 18.70

Breadth

S&P 500 ETF Sectors 

Nasdaq 100 Heat Map

A special thanks to all the subscribers and our management who continue to provide me with this platform to express my views.

I will soon be going on my 28th year (!). I am fairly certain that few have had an extended streak like this in the business.

Of course, thanks for reading my Diary today and all week.

Enjoy the weekend.

Be safe.

douglas cassel

I get Doug K's TLT trade, and agree with the underlying economic thesis. However, I think following him has a real potential short term risk. The Iran/Israel confrontation has several possible outcomes. The alternative i feel most likely(for what that is worth ) is an Israeli attack on Iran's oil and refining facilities. At that point, I suspect Iran is likely to do the damage they can, not in Israel, but in Saudi and Kuwait. They can attack the oil fields in those countries and close the straight of Hormuz. Inaccurate missile fire will be much more effective than they have been with attacking Israel.

I suspect this escalation might lead to a flight to the safety of US bonds.

The timing is uncertain, but I think things could happen as soon as this weekend, and making trading adjustments pretty difficult.

Dougie Kass

always possible, i will short more in that event.

Equities started the day buoyed by the better-than-expected jobs report, surging by nearly +55 handles in premarket trading. In a relatively brief period of time, equities approached breakeven and have rallied to be +35 handles (in S&P terms) with a lot of volatility back and forth all day (Ideal for trading sardines but not for eating sardines). 

I had a good trading day.

Between three lengthy research calls I traded actively in today's premarket regular trading sessions — mostly via Index common and calls (shorting, that is):

Today's "things":

* I reinitiated my SPY and QQQ common shorts at $572.04 and $486.79, respectively (and continued on a scale higher) after the jobs release. I covered most of my short Index common right after the opening on a 50-handle reversal lower from the highs.

* At around 10 a.m. I shorted the rally which took us more than halfway back to the early highs (via short calls). I covered some of those calls on a reversal (lower) 30 minutes later.

* Later in the afternoon I sold Index calls short on the next ramp +35 handles in S&P (short calls). I plan to keep these and I have a scale higher to sell more.

* Phew! All of today's Index shorts were profitable.

* I sold the balance of my out-of-the-money short-dated OXY calls. I currently have no position in OXY.

* I very modestly reduced my homebuilder shorts on moves between -$5 and -$8 lower. Will reup on a rally.

* I day traded MCD profitably (shorted above $305, covered below $303) and remain small short.

* I added to my TLT short.

Day's low in bond prices, day's high in yields.

Short thesis on our latest short, TLT, coming early next week.

As promised (in a rally), with S&P cash +35 handles I am replacing the short Index calls I covered much lower. 

Wolf Street howls about the labor market's false alarm.

Scott Galloway's No Malice/No Mercy.... Fallen Angels.

I covered 3/4 of my Index common and call shorts on the -50 handle drop from the morning highs.

I plan to re-short on a rally.

At 11:00 a.m.:

Breadth

Sectors 

Heat Map

* How can you not be romantic about baseball and investing?

* More lessons from the baseball diamond.

Humphrey Bogart once said that, "a hot dog at the game beats roast beef at the Ritz."

And Yogi Berra once exclaimed that "love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too."

I second those emotions.

Last night's New York Mets/Milwaukee Brewers game when The Amazins' Pete Alonso stunned the crowd with a three-run home run in the top of the ninth inning to advance to the next Playoff round (Mets vs Brewers highlights: Pete Alonso home run sends NY to NLDS (usatoday.com)).

That moment was a reminder of the beauty and excitement of baseball and the lack of predictability in sports. As Grandpa Koufax used to say, "Dougie, there are only two seasons: Winter and Baseball":

Baseball and stock market memories have been numerous over the years.

While baseball games are un-timed and the stock market trading session is timed, the unexpected outcomes and excitement are why some of us are so immersed in both activities.

As I will discuss below, there are similarities between baseball and investing. Enjoying success in both requires the ability to adapt. Only by being open to change can one have a true opportunity to get the most from one's talent in playing baseball and investing successfully.

As Yogi reminded us, both baseball and investing are 90% mental and (especially with the dominance of machines and algos) the other half is physical.

We wake up every morning and watch equity markets (at least) between 9:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. and some of us watch ball games in the afternoons (less so these days!) and during the evenings -- with wonderful (and some less than wonderful, depending on your perspective) surprises:

Baseball Memories

Over history, the wonders of baseball have been numerous:

Shohei Ohtoni's greatest game at the plate in history GREATEST GAME EVER?!? Shohei Ohtani goes 6-FOR-6 with 3 HOMERS, 2 SB and 10 RBI! (Joins 50/50 club!) (youtube.com),

Willie Mays' "catch" Willie Mays makes "THE CATCH"! His famous over-the-shoulder grab is one of the best EVER! (youtube.com), 

Ralph Branca's pitch and Bobby Thompson "shot heard 'round the world" Bobby Thomson's Shot Heard 'Round The World (youtube.com), 

Cousin Sandy Koufax's ballet-like performance and perfect game (1965) CHC@LAD: Koufax's perfect, game called by Scully (youtube.com), 

Babe Ruth calls his "shot" BABE RUTH'S (1932 WS) CALLED HOME RUN SHOT' RARE VIDEO & COMMENTARY (youtube.com), 

Don Larsen's legendary perfect game in the 1956 World Series WS1956 Gm5: Scully calls Larsen's perfect game - YouTube , 

Bill Wambsganss' unassisted World Series triple play Bill "Wamby" Wambsganss, Only Unassisted Triple Play in MLB World Series History (1920) & Biography (youtube.com) , 

Carlton Fisk waves the ball fair Must C Classic: Fisk waives walk-off home run fair to win Game 6 of 1975 World Series - YouTube, 

Bill Buckner's botched play on Mookie Wilson WS1986 Gm6: Scully calls Mookie Wilson's epic at-bat - YouTube , 

Hank Aaron's 715th home run Vin Scully calls Hank Aaron's historic 715th home run (youtube.com), 

Pete Rose's 4,192th hit CINCINNATI REDS: Pete Rose, 4192 Record Breaking Hit of 1985 (youtube.com), and ...

Bill Mazeroski's winning home run in the 1960 World Series 1960 WS Game 7: Mazeroski wins World Series with homer - YouTube 

Stock Market Memories

Like baseball, there have been amazing and memorable investing events, though Vin Scully never announced them ... like buying Nvidia NVDA at $2.32/share in 2016 (NVIDIA - 25 Year Stock Price History | NVDA | MacroTrends),

... and ...

... purchasing Tesla TSLA at $1.99/share in mid-2012, owning Amazon AMZN at $24/share in 2013, shorting Resorts International at $190/share in 1978 (and watching it go to zero) and many other shorts like Baldwin United, Enron, Tyco, Sino-Forest and, of course, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. And who could forget Soros' "breaking the bank of England?"

***

I have written many columns that compare baseball to the stock market. Here is one of my favorites:

Lessons From the Baseball Diamond

Tonite Dodgers Stadium will host the seventh game of the World Series for the first time ever.

Being related to Hall of Famer, Sandy Koufax, I bleed Dodger Blue.

I cant wait for tonite's game.

Over the last two decades I have written more than fifty columns noting the parallels between baseball and investing.

* Recommended Listening

* Playng Ball With Warren Buffett

* Rounding Third and Heading Home

* Forget Stocks Its Opening Day

* How Long Will The Joy In Mudville Last?

* Apple is Like Ty Cobb

* Who (Hu) Is On First!

* Never Fear Getting Back in the Game

* Practice Your Defense

* Take Me Out to the Ball Game For a Sense of History

Here is one of my favorites from more than two years ago:

Let's Go Yankees!

subscriber comment of the day

Rojizo

32 minutes ago

I asked ChatGPT what kind of analysis we need today. Here’s what it said:

“

Ludicrous forecast - lead the way.

O speak anomalies today.

Tell us - shall the SPYs and Qs,

Ascend the open or tumble through?

Shall they soar or shall they fall?

Wild prediction – now tell all!

Ludicrous! Yes, make the call.

To close above? Beneath the open?

Reveal a most outlandish token!

For the plea of subs has spoken.

Peer into the sordid mists

(for all readers now insist!)

what is till now, will it persist?

or end with unexpected twist?

Omitting you should be remiss

Great oracle of foolishness!

So come now to our Dougie Kass,

To give a ludicrous forecast!

9 minutes ago

STAFF

With S and P cash +40 handles I am reentering short Index calls.

STAFF

13 minutes ago

Homebuilders downside leaders.

STAFF

1 hour ago

In premarket trading I am shorting the gap higher.

I reinitiated my SPY and QQQ common shorts at $572.04 and $486.79 respectively.

I am working on a scale higher.

Charts from 8:19 a.m.:

Chart from 8:34 a.m.:

In premarket trading, I am shorting the gap higher.

I re-initiated my SPY and QQQ common shorts at $572.04 and $486.79 respectively.

I am working on a scale higher.

Upside:

-B +11% buyout spec

-SND +12% special div

-MMLP +9% acquired

-SMMT +6% Harmoni trial update

-CLMT +3% funding agreement

-BGNE +5% Onco360 partnership

-APOG +5% earnings

Downside:

-RIVN -7% Q3 production update

-SAVE -31% bankruptcy report

-LFCR -2% earnings

-ZIM -10% ILA dock workers agreement

Bonus — Here are some great links:

The Five Most Important Charts 

Tech Support - Trading Adventures

China Stocks Charge Into Bullish Territory

China, Market Misbehavior and Election Risks 

I remain short TLT (my latest short).

Wolf Street howls about the Fed's balance sheet.