What a week it was. On Tuesday, the Conference Board told us that U.S. consumers were in a state of outright despair. On Friday, the University of Michigan told us that U.S. consumers are actually doing better. On Thursday, the BEA told us that everything they told us about economic growth since the start of 2022 was actually wrong and that activity was much, much stronger than we thought. This morning, the same BEA told us that inflation is pretty much in check, but that both income and spending are winding down. 

What are we supposed to think after all of that?

Earnings were pretty thin this week. Micron Technology MU is apparently kicking tail, but it's all B to B, thanks to AI. The consumer business, which is reliant upon PCs and mobile devices, is not nearly as hot. Costco COST had a nice quarter, but was it awesome? The stock is a little (a lot) expensive if it wasn't awesome. Army beat Temple on Thursday night football. Cowboys? Giants? Never heard of 'em.

As for treasuries, pressure on the short end of the curve is evident, suppressing yields, while the belly of the curve on out to the deep end shows signs of trading sideways to actually selling off. On Friday, equities traded in a tight range, on subdued volume. Wynn WYNN and Walgreen Boots Alliance led the S&P 500, but the index closed down small on the day. Dell Technology DELL,a newcomer to the S&P 500, was its worst performer.

For the week, the S&P 50 gained 0.67%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.95%, while the Russell 2000 gave up 0.16%. The materials sector SPDR ETF XLB led the weekly performance tables at +3.49%. That said, within tech, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 4.34% for the week, led by Micron, Intel INTC and Lam Research LRCX.

OK, gang... as always, it is an honor and a privilege to fill in for Doug and spend a trading day with you guys, his crew. I thank you for always making me feel welcome. Have a nice weekend, stay safe and God bless. If you were impacted severely by the storm, you will be in my prayers. 

Q) In 1967, Joe Namath of the New York Jets passed for an AFL record 4,007 yards, while Sonny Jurgensen of the then Washington Redskins passed for an NFL record 3,737 yards. After the merger, the NFL recognized AFL records, so Namath held the record... and he would hold it for an incredible 12 years, when it was broken after the NFL schedule was changed from 14 to 16 games.

Questions: Whose record did Namath (and Jurgensen) break, and who broke Namath's record? 

Randy got the 1979 QB correct.

A) In 1979, Dan Fouts of the San Diego Chargers passed for 4,082 yards, becoming the new record-holder. In 1967, Joe Namath of the Jets and Sonny Jurgensen of the Redskins, broke a record already set by Jurgensen, who passed for 3,723 yards for the Philadelphia Eagles in 1961. 

In 2013, Peyton Manning of the Denver Broncos passed for a single-season record 5,477 yards, a record that still stands. This record changed hands on an almost yearly basis there for a while when passers like Manning, Brady and Brees were in their primes. It has now been 11 years since that record was set.

In 1967, Joe Namath of the New York Jets passed for an AFL record 4,007 yards, while Sonny Jurgensen of the then Washington Redskins passed for an NFL record 3,737 yards. After the merger, the NFL recognized AFL records and Namath held the record... and he would hold it for an incredible 12 years, when it was broken after the NFL schedule was changed from 14 to 16 games.

Questions: Whose record did Namath (and Jurgensen) break? And who broke Namath's record? 

I noticed in the comments that SoCalGary was shorting more Starbucks SBUX, so I took a look at the chart. Not a bad idea at all, Gary. 

What I notice immediately, is the gigantic unfilled gap that needs a tick at $77.10 or lower to fill. Then I see the triple-top pattern with the $90 pivot. Looks like a setup to me. I lost a few "bucks" on a short in this name back in mid-August after the gap up. I think the technical case is even stronger now. I'll be joining you Gary, in small to less-than-medium size. 

Advanced Micro Devices AMD is trying to break out of a falling-wedge pattern, which is a pattern of bullish reversal. 

New target price: $193

Add: Down to the 50-day SMA ($155)

Panic: Loss of the 20-day SMA ($146)

Your pal and mine, TST Pro contributor Peter Thcir on CNBC with Rick Santelli:

"The Case for an Economic Bumpy Landing Ahead," CNBC

XLU is now up 46.6% since the lows of October 2023. Yields 2.78% ($2.21) per year, too. 

Fed Governor Michelle has been the lone Fed official who seems to understand that easing monetary policy in an environment where GDP is much higher than we thought and inflation is not quite down to target might not be such a hot idea. 

Especially in an ecosystem where federal, state and local governments are over-indebted and the money supply/monetary base remains way too large. 

I found this piece at Barron's:

Fed’s Bowman Says Inflation Could Bounce Back - Barron's (barrons.com)

This is two days old. It's Steph Pomboy, of MacroMavens with Jim Iuorio and Bob Iaccino. It's short (I think 11 mins), but I think you'll want to hear more.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their data for August Income and Outlays as well as August PCE Inflation on Friday morning. On the velocity side, the pace of activity slowed down. August Personal Income printed at month-over-month growth of 0.2%, which was not only a slowing from July's 0.3% print, but well below the consensus view for growth of 0.4%. As for Personal Spending, that number slowed as well, quite dramatically, to m/m growth of 0.2% from the torrid pace of 0.5% for July. This was also below expectations for growth of 0.3%.

On to inflation, at the headline level, August PCE prices grew 0.1% m/m and 2.2% year over year. These numbers were in line with the m/m projection and below expectations for a y/y print of 2.3%. These numbers were also down from m/m growth of 0.2% and y/y growth of 2.5% in July. At the core, August PCE prices increased 0.1% m/m and 2.7% y/y. This is a little bit on the tricky side.

Wall Street had expected m/m growth of 0.2% for August and Core PCE grew 0.2% m/m for July, so this was both a slowing of the pace of m/m inflation and a beat of expectations. Huzzah! However, the y/y Core PCE print for August hit the tape at growth of 2.7%. That was in line with expectations, but up from growth of 2.6% for July. In fact, August was the hottest month for core PCE inflation since April.

One would think that another overall report for consumer inflation that is not very hot, or very scary, would pave the road for a Fed intent on reducing short-term interest rates. That said, after yesterday's revisions to both GDP and GDI, I don't know how the FOMC could even consider another rate hike without overt signs of labor market weakness. Sure, we'll make money in such a monetary environment because we're hard-charging, fire-eating, bad bass brother-truckers, but that doesn't mean that the Fed does not have some ulterior motive for trying to debase the national fiat.

S&P Futures: +5 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +20 vs FV.

US Ten Year Note: 3.78%

US Two Year Note: 3.62%

US Three Month T-Bill: 4.60%

US Dollar Index: 100.50 down small

WTI Crude: $67.90, up 0.23%

Gold: $2,687.20, -0.29%

Silver: $32.27, -0.23%

Bitcoin: $65,431, +1.05%

It appears that Intel INTC has not responded favorably to the efforts of Arm Holdings ARM to possibly acquire a piece of the firm that did not include the foundry. This comes after Qualcomm QCOM reportedly showing interest in anything from buying pieces or acquiring the whole company and Apollo Global Management's APO reported offer of a potentially $5 billion investment in the firm. 

Do I think that CEO Pat Gelsinger has done a good job? Of course not. That said, Amazon AMZN is willing to dance with Intel and the federal government is apparently willing to shower the firm with cash.

Does that make the stock of Intel cheap? Quite possibly. If Qualcomm, Arm and Apollo all think so, so do I. I am long the shares for now. If it comes in, I'll add. 

My average point of entry so far is $22.52. Perhaps they'll spin off the foundry or sell more Mobileye MBLY. 

It is impossible to see the stock symbol APO and not think "Army Post Office."

Today, we'll start off with thoughts and prayers for those suffering and still in peril across the U.S. Southeast as now Tropical Storm Helene continues on her path of destruction. Once we're done with that, we'll very quietly prepare for the Friday trading session. Coffee, push-ups, sit-ups, or whatever you can do. The point is not that I'm some crazy former sergeant playing a role, but that it's key to one's ability to focus to force some level of physical exertion early in the morning to get the blood flowing, and release some endorphins, which is how we legally use our bodies as a resource.

If you have not yet realized it, our esteemed hero is out today. Three cheers for Dougie. Hip, hip... I didn't hear you. More push-ups, begin. 

On Thursday, equity markets were strong, and trading volume finally rebounded. This morning, we'll get some August data on personal income and outlays as well as August inflation. We'll also see the University of Michigan's revisions to their Consumer Sentiment survey for September which will include inflation expectations going out one and five years.

Oh, I almost forgot. Fed Governor Michele Bowman will speak early this afternoon. After yesterday's GDP revision, she may be the only official at the Federal Reserve both capable of reasoned thought and still making decisions based on economic data. That said, let's rock, because rock and roll will never die.