Daily Diary

Stephen GuilfoyleStephen Guilfoyle
DATE:

Palantir, Dell, Erie Indemnity Get the Call

It's official. Glad I added to Palantir PLTR today. 

Palantir Technologies, Dell Technologies DELL, and Erie Indemnity ERIE will be added to the S&P 500 in two weeks. 

Deleted from the S&P 500 will be American Airlines AAL, Esty ETSY and Bio-Rad Laboratories BIO

 The statement from S&P Dow Jones Indices can be found here.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 5:47 PM EDT

Not Pretty at All

On Friday morning, the BLS released a rather weak employment report for August after what was a very, very weak employment report for July. The beleaguered agency also had to revise job creation for July as well as the month of June lower, significantly lower. 

There were signs of weakness all over the report. Losses of full-time jobs in the hundreds of thousands, and unemployment that rises with education level achieved. The implication there... would be that higher-paying jobs are a lot more scarce than lower-income positions.

The impulse to engage in risk-off behavior was strong Friday, as markets appear to either be pricing in a much harder landing than had been anticipated or are pricing in a global recessionary period where large-cap earnings will fall substantially short of projected late 2024 into 2025 earnings.

For the day, the S&P 500 gave up 1.01%, while the Nasdaq Composite surrendered 2.55% and the Russell 2000 was slapped around for a loss of 1.91%. The problem was that risk-off behavior usually chases investors into safe havens. We really did not see that today. The U.S. Dollar index was up small, but gold took a hit of 0.7%, silver gave back almost 3%, and Bitcoin suffered a beating of roughly 4%.

Turning back to equities, as one might expect, the REITs XLRE, Staples XLP, Health Care XLV and Utilities XLU finished in the first four positions on the S&P sector SPDR daily performance tables, but there were no winners. The REITs did close unchanged. Dollar General DG was top dog today among S&P 500 stocks, gaining 2.71%, but still closed down for the week. Broadcom AVGO was the big loser on Friday, giving up 10.36%, with Tesla TSLA down 8.5%.

Thank you for having me today. It's always a pleasure to be Dougie's backup quarterback. I hope you all have a very nice weekend. Rest up. CPI is next week and the FOMC is the week after that. Good evening and God bless.

Sarge

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 4:32 PM EDT

Just Throw Picks Baby

Congrats to fishplay who got the correct answer rather quickly.

Q) The NFL record for interceptions thrown in one game, however, is eight, by Jim Hardy of the Chicago Cardinals against the Philadelphia Eagles in a 1950 loss. No one has thrown as many as seven interceptions in one game since October 16, 1977, and that was the first time in twelve years when it happened. Name that QB. Hint: He's also a Hall of Famer.

A) On October 16, 1977, Kenny Stabler of the Oakland Raiders threw seven picks in a 30-7 loss to the Denver Broncos at Mile High. The Raiders were defending Super Bowl Champs at the time, but the Broncos were Super Bowl bound and would ultimately lose to the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XII. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 3:24 PM EDT

NFL Trivia

I know I am primarily known as a baseball fan, but I am a fan of all team sports, and this is the opening weekend for the National Football League. 

It may surprise readers to learn that on November 11 (Veterans Day), 2007, Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning threw six interceptions in an Indianapolis Colts loss to the then San Diego Chargers. That was the last time this was done as interceptions are far rarer in today's short passing style of play.

The NFL record for interceptions thrown in one game, however, is eight, by Jim Hardy of the Chicago Cardinals against the Philadelphia Eagles in a 1950 loss. No one has thrown as many as seven interceptions in one game since October 16, 1977, and that was the first time in twelve years when it happened. 

Name that QB. Hint: He's also a Hall of Famer. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 2:49 PM EDT

Quotable

From Mike Shedlock's "Mish Talk" blog this morning:

"I am amused by people who still think the economy is not headed for recession when the data suggests we are in recession already."

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 1:26 PM EDT

Sold Some More Nvidia

I'm down to 25% of what was my core position in Nvidia NVDA in terms of adjusted (for split) share count. 

I'm becoming convinced that what was a handle attached to a cup is quickly becoming a foreordained meeting with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 1:05 PM EDT

Lunchtime Tweet

https://twitter.com/StockMarketNerd/status/1832088672365383738

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 12:50 PM EDT

Halftime Update

S&P 500: -1.75%.

Nasdaq Composite: -2.59%.

Russell 2000: -1.99%

US Dollar Index: 101.31, +0.18%.

US Ten Year Note: 3.72%

US Two Year Note: 3.69%

US Three Month T-Bill: 5.06%

Gold: $2,519.10, -0.94%.

Silver: $28.11, -3.45%,

WTI Crude: $67.33, -2.62%.

Bitcoin: $53,993, -3.58.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 12:40 PM EDT

Thoughts on Palantir

Palantir

Testing pivot. 

I'm thinking about adding ahead of the S&P 500 announcement tonight. Just not sure if PLTR gets the nod.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 11:27 AM EDT

The Big Night: S&P Preview

For those who missed Market Recon this morning, the S&P Global rebalances its indexes quarterly, and is scheduled to reset the S&P 500 once again on Sept. 20. Back in June, KKR & Co KKR, CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD and GoDaddy GDDY all joined the index.

The announcement concerning additions and deletions for the index is usually made two weeks ahead of the event, after the close. That would be tonight, kids. We all know what happened to my beloved CRWD in July. Super Micro Computer SMCI was a March addition. That's a couple of picks that might have those folks in charge at S&P Global shaking their heads. There probably is some fairly intense pressure to get any moves announced tonight just right.

Who has a chance for addition? Looking over the list of who's eligible and not already in the S&P 500, I see such names as Dell Technologies DELL, my personal favorite... Palantir Technologies PLTR, Workday WDAY and The Trade Desk TTD as all having legitimate shots at inclusion. I would think Apollo Global Management APO is also a legitimate contender. Almost forgot about them. Other eligible names I see as less likely would be Datadog DDOG, Snowflake SNOW and DoorDash DASH.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 10:54 AM EDT

Tweet of the A.M.: Kobeissi on Revised Jobs

https://www.twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1832037202471145817

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 9:19 AM EDT

Jobs Numbers Are In (Don't Count on 'Em Being Accurate)

Non-Farm Payrolls: Actual 142K, Expected 163K, Last 114K.

Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2%, Expected 4.2%, Last 4.3%.

Underemployment Rate: Actual 7.9%, Expected 7.8%, Last 7.8%.

Participation Rate: Actual 62.7%, Expected 62.6%, Last 62.7%.

Average Hourly Earnings: Actual 3.8%, Expected 3.7% y/y, Last 3.6% y/y.

Average Weekly Hours: Actual 34.3, Expected 34.3, last 34.2 hours.

Note: This data, if past performance is any indication, is likely highly inaccurate.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 8:39 AM EDT

30 Minutes Until the Job Numbers, 90 Until the Bell

S&P futures: -34 vs FV.

Nasdaq futures: -206 vs FV.

US Dollar Index: 101.04, down small.

US Ten Year Note: 3.71%

US Two Year Note: 3.74%

US Three Month T-Bill: 5.07%

Gold: $2,546.50, up small.

Silver: $29.15, up small,

WTI Crude: $69.45, up 0.4%.

Bitcoin: $56,008, down small.

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 8:01 AM EDT

Good Friday Morning!

Good morning! Or should I say "Good August Jobs Friday Morning!" 

It's what we've been waiting for. BLS Jobs Day. This week's event of the decade. 

Truth is that whatever the Bureau of Labor Statistics throws at us today, there's no way anyone with an IQ above 85 can trust it. The numbers over the past almost two years now have been so inflated when initially reported, and still so inflated upon the first or second revision that only the quarterly BLS BED report, which lags the monthly data by almost a full year, and the annual benchmark revisions might be trusted.

Oh, one other thing. The algorithms that control price discovery in this high-speed, momentum-forcing era don't care if the numbers are accurate or not. They will race each other to the various points of sale in an attempt to create overshoot. Many of them will never be long or short too much of anything. The goal is to repeatedly run small but profitable trades timed in microseconds because milliseconds are way too slow. That's how inappropriate momentum is created and how price discovery became a game and not a responsibility.

So, slam down that next cup of Joe, me hearties, the adventure begins now, and will reach a fever pitch by 08:30 Eastern Time. After that, it's all cottonmouths and alligators. May the best among us find victory. May the worst among us, find valor in the attempt. For it is up to us, a simple band of human traders, who stand our ground and take on the machines this day. Never let them forget who they picked this fight with.

By the way, Doug is off today. Your old buddy Sarge, is here in his stead. I can't really replace a legend like Doug, but I can hang out here all day and do my best Earl Morrall impersonation. That said, just drop and give whatever you've got. Rock on. When your shoulders run out of ammo, roll over and do some crunches. Crank it up, kids. 

BY Stephen Guilfoyle · Sep 6, 2024, 6:48 AM EDT