* A low volume advance on good internals...

- NYSE volume 317M shares, 26% below its one-month average;

- NASDAQ volume 3.86B shares, 18% below its one-month average;

- VIX index: + 2.46% to 16.27

A near $4 billion market on close order helped the averages regain its footing.

Thanks for reading my Diary today.

It is nice to be back.

Thanks to Sarge, Bret, Chris and Mesh, who pitched in during my absence.

Enjoy the evening.

Be safe.

*All you gotta do is...

Wishin' and hopin' and thinkin' and prayin'

Plannin' and dreamin' each night of his charms

That won't get you into his arms

So if you're lookin' to find love you can share

All you gotta do is hold him, and kiss him and love him

And show him that you care

- Dusty Springfiled, "Just Wishin' and Hopin'"

Volume is now coming into Occidental Petroleum OXY.

From "Meet" Bret Jensen:

"How it begins dept...

About those capital gain taxes on unrealized gains (or any other kind of new "tax" for that matter), but only on the "very rich"...

They said something similar in 1913 with the birth of the permanent federal income tax and the establishment of the Federal Reserve ... but I am sure it would be "different" this time...

With S&P cash +27 handles I added to my short index calls and common.

From Peter Boockvar:

Because there is so much Fed speak in the weeks after an FOMC meeting, the minutes that come three weeks later are rarely revealing something new and today follows that pattern. 

The bottom line is that the Fed is cutting interest rates on September 18, 2024, with the only question being whether it will be 25 BPS or 50 BPS. Rate cut odds are now 42% for 50 BPS. The swing factor is clearly going to be their view of the state of the labor market on that day with inflation taking a back seat.

There was even this commentary on the possibility of them cutting at this July meeting: “All participants supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent, although several observed that the recent progress on inflation and increases in the unemployment rate had provided a plausible case for reducing the target range 25 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported such a decision.”

Note the word "several."

Today’s benchmark revision through March definitely raises the stakes for the possibility of 50 BPS because we must assume the main reason for the overestimation was in the birth/death model and I assume that overestimation has continued since, at the same time hiring as stated in the data has slowed further. And this line, something we’ve already known, highlights the shift in the Committee’s attention: “A majority of participants remarked that the risks to the employment goal had increased, and many participants noted that the risks to the inflation goal had decreased.”

Also take note that there remains an internal debate and focus on how to thread the needle from here with policy and cutting rates. Note that one sentence refers to the "many" while the other "several" when referring to the number of participants, which sound pretty similar, but both comments are in conflict and what the overall Committee is weighing.

On one hand, “Many participants noted that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity or employment.”

On the other, “Several participants remarked that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a resurgence in aggregate demand and a reversal of the progress on inflation.”

Treasury yields remain down on the day but didn’t move much in response to the minutes. I’ll repeat again that the 3.75% to 3.8% ten-year yield is a key technical level to watch closely as that was the launching point for the run to 5% last year catalyzed by the BOJ essentially ending YCC.

* FOMC July minutes...

FOMC July Minutes: Some officials note risks to more deterioration in labor market; some saw case to cut rates 25 BPS at July meeting

Developments in financial markets and open market operations

Source 

Wolf Street howls about revisions:

"Nonfarm Job Creation for 12 Months through March Revised Down by 818,000, to 2.08 Million Jobs Created, from 2.90 Million"

My long CMG/short SBUX pairs trade is beginning to work.

Back shorting McDonald's MCD at $289.25 — after covering most of my short around $250 to $260.

The reward versus risk is now much improved.

Into the continued weakness in the price of oil I am buying in the money OXY calls.

From my pal Larry:

Everybody's doin' a brand new dance now

(Come on baby, do the locomotion)

I know you'll get to like it if you give it a chance now

(Come on baby, do the locomotion)

My little baby sister can do it with ease

It's easier than learning your A B C's

So come on, come on, do the locomotion with me

-Little Eva, "Loco-motion"

With the S&P rallying back to +17 handles, I am shorting in the money calls on the indices for October.

I took the trade in AXP $244.71 and JPM $213.18 shorts for a quick profit.

I plan to re-short on strength.

From premarket:

Shorted AXP $250.06

Shorted JPM $214.55

I added to my SPY and QQQ shorts at $561.26 and $483.04 — moving from very small to small sized.

From Peter Boockvar:

Old news but very relevant/Earnings comments/The price is too damn high

Today's most important data point is very old news but also very relevant. It's the BLS annual benchmark revision to its monthly payroll data for the 12 months through March 2024. I've seen estimates that it could be marked lower by between 250,000 to 1mm jobs. This would be a downgrade of the current read of 2.9mm jobs in the 12 months ended March, or an average of 242,000 per month. The way I view this is a contest between what ZipRecruiter has been saying for the past year about a muted pace of hiring which I've highlighted in each of their earnings calls vs the Birth/Death model which might have been a very generous phantom adder to monthly job growth. We'll see at 10am. 

Regardless, this also highlights how faulty the job of the Fed is in that they are making major policy decisions on data that subsequently gets revised multiple times. I'll argue again, the Fed should be removed from the business of setting the overnight fed funds rate. Let the market do it based on the supply and demand for money. Sometimes it will get it wrong but will more quickly adjust when it does. 

Anyway, I'll just get right to some earnings calls as there is not much else going on.

From Lowe's:

"While we're pleased that we delivered positive comps in Pro and online sales, we continue to manage through softness in DIY demand."

"there remains a great deal of uncertainty, particularly around interest rates and inflation. In terms of housing specifically, we're seeing significant implications as a result of a lock-in effect. Simply put, people aren't moving nearly as often as they typically do because current mortgage rates are so much higher than their existing rates. And as a consequence, housing turnover is hovering near its lowest levels since the mid 1990's. And the preference for spending on services, especially for the more affluent consumer, has persisted much longer than expected."

The eventual bull case is this, "Home prices continue to appreciate, which is sustaining historically high levels of home equity, disposable personal income is now growing faster than inflation and the aging housing stock means people will need to make repairs and improvements in their homes. When you combine those factors with trends like a large number of millennials forming households, baby boomers aging in place and people continuing to work from home, we remain optimistic about the medium to long term outlook of the home improvement industry."

Also related to the home, La-Z-boy reported earnings after the bell and said "The overall macroeconomic and consumer spending environment remains challenging...Looking forward, our industry will remain under pressure in the near term as the market contends with still high interest rates, muted housing turnover, and an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment." 

They saw comps down 3% and said "Trends were strongest around the Memorial Day holiday and softened towards the end of the quarter."

Shifting up scale and ahead of their earnings call, Toll Brothers said "Net signed contracts were up y/o/y approximately 11% in both units and dollars, with July being our strongest month in the quarter. We are also encouraged by our solid deposit and traffic activity through the first three weeks of August. With mortgage rates at their lowest point in a year and trending lower, favorable demographics, and continued imbalance in the supply and demand of homes for sale, we are optimistic that demand will remain solid through the end of fiscal 2024 and into 2025."

They did not mention either way their use of incentives in the quarter but will on the call I'm sure. 

Target in their earnings release said, "Traffic grew 3% in the 2nd quarter as compared to the prior year, with all six core merchandising categories delivering traffic growth...Discretionary sales trends continued to improve meaningfully, with Apparel comparable sales growing more than 3% in the quarter." They also are seeing "continued strength in beauty." We know it's back to school shopping season with regards to the apparel side.

As for Q3 guidance, "While the Company believes its full year guidance range of a 0 to 2% increase in its comparable sales remains appropriate, it now believes the increase will more likely be in the lower half of that range." Comps grew 2% in Q2. 

From Amer Sports, the maker of sports apparel and equipment with brands like Salomon, Atomic, Wilson and Louisville Slugger:

Their apparel brand Arc'teryx in particular is doing well with 16% y/o/y growth and that allowed the business in aggregate to outperform. They called it "a breakout growth story with unprecedented growth and profitability for the outdoor industry."

They also saw strong China growth, unlike others.

On the ski equipment side, "2024 will be a slightly softer year for winter sports equipment due to slower trends in North America where ski equipment sales are rebasing after a strong run through and beyond Covid. This is in addition to cautious orders in EMEA after two tough snow seasons in Europe."

With their Ball & Racquet business, "The growth in sportswear, racquets and golf was partly offset by declines in baseball and inflatables."

Finally, on the consumer, "we also saw a healthy growth in average spend per customer." I'll add again, what a mixed and uneven economy we have. 

From Macy's, who missed comp estimates and cut guidance:

They mentioned the "challenging consumer environment."

"The company updated its annual outlook to reflect a more discriminating consumer and heightened promotional environment relative to its prior expectations. The company believes the outlook range provided gives the flexibility to address the ongoing uncertainty in the discretionary consumer market."

They also said that "Net credit losses were in line with our expectations."

Shifting back to real estate, the July US Architecture Billings Index rose to 48.2 from 46.4, thus remaining below the 50 breakeven. They said, "Architecture firms continue to face a billings slowdown. However, the emerging prospects of lower interest rates coupled with a modest uptick in project inquiries suggest that some dormant projects may be revived in the coming months."

We're still not seeing any lift in the use of mortgages to purchase a home according to the weekly MBA data. Purchases fell by 5.2% w/o/w even with another dip in mortgage rates. This component is at the lowest level since February. For many, the price is too damn high. Refi's fell 15.2% w/o/w after a strong two prior weeks. 

Purchase Apps

Japan reported a 10.3% y/o/y rise in exports driven by tech products and autos. It was though a touch below the forecast of 11.5%. Imports grew by 16.6%, 200 bps above the estimate. Of course the direction of the yen too is a big influence on both. Nothing market moving here but the yen is weaker as we all wonder what is left of the yen carry trade.

* Another big and profound "Omaha" pilgrimage, but this time to Normandy, France...

"So much of the progress that would define the 20th century, on both sides of the Atlantic, came down to the battle for a slice of beach only six miles long and two miles wide." 

-President Barack Obama, 10 years ago in Normandy to mark the 65th anniversary of D-Day

I have been away on vacation for about ten days for the principal task of visiting Dunkirk and Omaha Beach (and the other beaches of D-Day) in Normandy, France. 

(Omaha Beach, Wikipedia)

Just a decade ago, I was selected by Warren Buffett to be the "credentialed bear" ("Buffett Picks Douglas Kass as His 'Bear' for Annual Meeting," The New York Times) at another Omaha — in Nebraska, at Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Meeting - where I sat on the dais throwing (respectful) hard balls at Charlie Munger and Buffett.

My experience ten years ago in Omaha, Nebraska in front of 45,000 adoring Buffett fans, was a reminder to me of how big the investment world really was. It also brought a sense of excitement about investing and a rekindling of fun for the investment business for me back then.

My experience this past week at Omaha Beach, Utah Beach, Gold, Juno and Sword — which, during Operation Overlord, saw five naval assault divisions, 7,000 ships and landing craft manned by nearly 200,000 naval personnel from eight allied countries — was far more elevating and "big."

While our TheStreet Pro subscribers (and most investors and traders) all have, as a primary objective, delivered superior returns (something I learned a lot about that from Buffett in Omaha, Nebraska and over the years) — seeking freedom is far more transcendental (and that was the message delivered from the beaches of Omaha).

"At the core, the American citizen soldiers knew the difference between right and wrong, and they didn't want to live in a world in which wrong prevailed. So they fought, and won, and we, all of us, living and yet to be born, must be forever profoundly grateful."

-Stephen Ambrose, author

The foundation of D-Day was a common theme of ideals. Today, those ideals can feel pretty naive as we live in a time of confusion and rancor in which society puts a premium on "likes," money, fame, status and "wins." We chase the approval of strangers on our phones, we build walls and fences and we wonder why we have a sense of loneliness. We don't trust each other as much because we don't take the time to know each other — and in that space between us, politicians and investing algorithms teach us to caricature each other, copy each other's investing methodology and even to troll each other and fear each other.

But the vast majority of of us wants to live in an undivided world — that was the lesson of Omaha Beach (and D-Day) and it is the lesson we need to reinforce during the deeply divided political views that permeate our airways and conversations. 

One can't experience the beaches of Normandy without coming out with a sense of optimism, hope and American exceptionalism.

There is more good news — which I take directly from former President Obama's speech in Chicago last night:

"All across America, in big cities and small towns, away from all the noise, the ties that bind us together are still there. We still coach Little League and look out for our elderly neighbors. We still feed the hungry, in churches and mosques and synagogues, and share the same pride when our Olympic athletes compete for the gold. Because the vast majority of us don’t want to live in a country that’s bitter and divided. We want something better. We want to be better. And the joy and excitement we’re seeing around this campaign tells us we’re not alone."

Yes we can — because better angels exist.

And now, back to the markets... 

I added to my Apple AAPL short at $227 in the premarket. 

From my pal Q:

Over on Bloomberg, Jon and Lisa are discussing whether the next catalyst to higher stock prices may be the $6 trillion of "cash reserves."

Several of their panelists are suggesting this to be the case.

As noted recently, I call BS to this commonly-held bull market argument:

I Call BS to Goldman's View That Cash on the Sidelines Will Buoy the Markets

"O, then my best blood turn To an infected jelly and my name Be yoked with his that did betray the Best! Turn then my freshest reputation to A savour that may strike the dullest nostril Where I arrive, and my approach be shunn'd, Nay, hated too, worse than the great'st infection That e'er was heard or read!"

- William Shakespeare

I disagree and call BS to Goldman's view; it is non rigorous and not based on history:

Here is why I believe the "money on the sidelines" argument is flawed. From Dec. 20:

* Everyone is entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts

* Facts are stubborn things, and whatever may be the wishes of the bulls they cannot alter the state of those facts that retail money market funds are a lot less than commonly discussed and massive migration into equities rarely occurs

* Moreover, and importantly, retail money market funds as a percentage of total stock market capitalization is at a multi-decade low!

* Finally, most of the retail savings in money market funds are associated with wealthy Americans

* That said, and as noted by Bob Farrell, the public typically buys most at the top and the least at the bottom

"I've already made my mind up, don't confuse me with the facts."

- Plato

The "old" argument that money on the sidelines will provide meaningful support of the next Bull Market leg has been bandied about in the business media by "talking heads" and investment strategists over the last few weeks.

"You mention cash on the sidelines, which is something we have heard many times with people on this network...."

- Melissa Lee, CNBC (July 2023)

The argument is bogus and inaccurate — and I call BS to it.

I conclude that although there is likely to be some benefit of excess savings in retail money market funds migrating into stocks — it will not be anywhere near enough to fuel a new Bull Market leg higher.

As well, such a migration rarely ever comes to fruition but it serves as a non rigorous crutch and a rationale to support the recent reset higher in stock valuations. Frankly, it is always an argument made in extended "up" moves in markets. (As an example, here is a August 2021 interview (over two years ago!) with Jim Cramer in which he expects money on the sidelines to fuel the markets. Jim Cramer says cash moving off the sidelines can help keep stock rally alive.

More importantly the data - the amount of money in retail money market accounts are vastly overstated (commonly said to total $6 trillion, but really only $2.2 trillion) - and, as such, is non supportive of the argument of sideline cash as a catalyst.

Let's now go to the facts and data:

Retail money market accounts total only $2.2 trillion (not $6.1 trillion)

The most important chart:

December 14, 2023

Money Market Fund Assets

Washington, DC; December 14, 2023 - Total money market fund assets decreased by $11.55 billion to $5.89 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, December 13, the Investment Company Institute reported today. Among taxable money market funds, government funds2 decreased by $11.36 billion and prime funds increased by $1.38 billion. Tax-exempt money market funds decreased by $1.56 billion.

Assets of Money Market Funds

Billions of dollars

*Change in money market fund assets is primarily driven by flows and can be used as a proxy for net new cash flows.

Note: Components may not add to the total or compute to the $ change due to rounding.

Retail: Assets of retail money market funds increased by $2.92 billion to $2.27 trillion. Among retail funds, government money market fund assets increased by $651 million to $1.47 trillion, prime money market fund assets increased by $3.45 billion to $682.38 billion, and tax-exempt fund assets decreased by $1.18 billion to $110.09 billion.

Institutional: Assets of institutional money market funds decreased by $14.47 billion to $3.62 trillion. Among institutional funds, government money market fund assets decreased by $12.01 billion to $3.34 trillion, prime money market fund assets decreased by $2.07 billion to $265.21 billion, and tax-exempt fund assets decreased by $381 million to $10.41 billion.

ICI reports money market fund assets to the Federal Reserve each week. Data for previous weeks reflect revisions due to data adjustments, reclassifications, and changes in the number of funds reporting. Weekly money market assets for the last 20 weeks are available on the ICI website.

As seen in the above table, retail money market assets total only about $2.25 trillion — not the "$6 trillion" mentioned by the many.

The "other" monies in money market funds are institutional in nature — and I don't think this money is "hot" money that will move into a climbing stock market.

Retail Money Market Funds Are at a Multi-Decade Low Relative to Total Stock Market Capitalization

To calculate retail money market funds' possible impact we can't simply look at the absolute amount of monies in money market accounts.

Rather, we must take total retail money market funds as a percent of stock market capitalization: TODAY IT IS AT A MULTI-DECADE LOW!

Retail Money Market Accounts Rarely Change Over Time

If you look at history the level of retail money market funds rarely changes:

- The History of Retail Money Market Funds

- The History of Total Money Market Funds

- The History of Money Market Funds (Excel Spreadsheet)

Furthermore, a lot has been made of the near $600 billion rise in retail money market accounts over the last 12 months. However, as noted in Peter Boockvar's chart below, the rise in retail money market funds over the past year pretty much mimics the drop in bank deposits in terms of dollars.

Speaking of my pal Peter, here is what he wrote this morning on the subject of cash on the sidelines:

I will first comment on the 'cash on the sidelines' debate that I keep hearing about and have for many years and the belief on the part of some that it's this pot of dry powder to 'come into the stock market.' There is ALWAYS cash on the sidelines as for every dollar that comes off the sidelines to buy a share of stock there is a dollar that comes back on the sidelines from the seller with the proceeds. The only time there is technically fresh money is when there is an IPO or equity secondary as new shares are created.

I mentioned yesterday that Friday saw the biggest ETF inflows into SPY since its 1993 inception and here is a chart to visualize. The $20.8 billion Friday inflow was followed by another $10.2 billion on Monday. It finally cooled down yesterday.

Yields on Money Market Instruments and Short Dated Treasuries Remain Near 5%

* With a high, risk-free equity-like return (with no volatility) available in money market accounts, the incentive to move large amounts of retail and institutional into equities is relatively low

"The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom."

-Bob Farrell, Market Rule #5

Not only are money market accounts still earning near 5%, but consider the following returns on short-dated Treasuries:

* Three-month treasury bill yields 5.425%

* Six-month treasury bill yields 5.346%

* One-year treasury bill yields 4.973%

* Two-year treasury note yields 4.384%

Though I expect some migration (as seen recently below), a massive migration out of money market accounts and into equities seems unlikely given the alternatives above:

And, as Bob Farrell cites above, the public buys the most at the top.

I expect nothing different in this cycle.

Bottom Line

The size of retail money market funds balances has been greatly exaggerated by nearly a factor of 3x.

In marked opposition to the bullish musings about cash on the side lines, the amount of retail money market funds measured against total stock market capitalization is at a multi-decade low!

As Peter Boockvar observed this morning: 1-1=0. (There is ALWAYS cash on the sidelines as for every dollar that comes off the sidelines to buy a share of stock there is a dollar that comes back on the sidelines from the seller with the proceeds).

In reaching for an argument to extend the recent bull move, "talking heads" are making an argument that does not conform to the facts, analysis, history or common sense.

Without stating the obvious of how remarkable the short-term market's advance has been over the last 10 days, I would note that, though the eight-day winning streak was cut short on Tuesday, we have rapidly moved from an oversold (the S&P short range oscillator was an oversold -2.47% on August 8, 2024) to a deeply-overbought market (the S&P short range oscillator was a high 7.26% on Monday and still an elevated 5.48% as of Tuesday's close).

This rise in overbought has been coincident with an evisceration in the VIX.

Interest rates have remained subdued (to lower) since the first week of August.

Yesterday, energy equities were especially weak as economic fears have risen. (Despite that, on Tuesday I began to repurchase OXY at about $56.30)

Upside:

-BBAI +29% (named as a subcontractor on a 10-year $2.4 billion shared contract with U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to provide IT solutions and emerging tech)

-IMMR +16% (earnings)

-(AZTR) +14% (first patient screened and scheduled to enroll in Phase 1B Trial of ATR-12 for Netherton Syndrome)

-TGT +13% (earnings, guidance)

-KEYS +11% (earnings, guidance)

-ARCH +9.2% (confirms plan of all-stock merger with CONSOL Energy)

-(VVX) +8.2% (secures $3.7 billion task order over five-years to spearhead next-gen readiness and training capabilities for U.S. army worldwide)

-(ZK) +5.8% (earnings, guidance)

-MNPR +5.2% (Australia's Human Research Ethics Committee [HREC] clears MNPR-101-Lu Phase 1 Therapeutic Trial in Advanced Cancers to proceed)

-GDS +3.6% (earnings, guidance)

-TJX +3.6% (earnings, guidance)

-ZTO +2.0% (earnings, guidance)

Downside:

-EYEN -34% (files to sell public offering of common stock)

-AADI -18% (PRECISION 1 tumor-agnostic trial unlikely to meet regulatory threshold to support an accelerated approval and will be halted)

-JD -7.5% (Walmart sells its entire 144.5M share stake)

-M -7.3% (earnings, guidance)

-DDD -4.8% (earnings, guidance)

-LZB -3.9% (earnings, guidance)

-DY -3.0% (earnings, guidance)

-BCDA -2.7% (FDA approves CardiAMP Heart Failure II Protocol Amendment to use proprietary cell population analysis screening to define treatment)

-FWONK -2.7% (prices 10.7M series C Liberty Formula One shares at $77.50 per share)

-AXP -1.2% (Tier 1 firm cuts AXP to neutral from buy, price target: $263)

Do you still like MSOS?

long msos

a few things have worried investors:

1. many impatient for rescheduliing
2. jd vance is against cannabis
3. ken griffin gave millions to stop Florida recreational bill and millions to republican party - he is anti weed
4. trump has not stated his position
5. retail investors alone can't sustain a move in msos et al, need to resolve custody/banking/rescheduling... which is all on track
6. mjus, a $100 million weed etf has been rebalancing the portfolio for a weak (creating pressure on space)

That said, there is an inevitability to rescheduling in my view.

I have long said this is an investment with high reward characteristics and not a trade.

Its been a while and I have been patient - and as I will note shortly, the markets are finally overbought!

Back short SPY and QQQ in premarket:

* SPY at $559.63

* QQQ at $481.32.

More evidence of "slugflation"

This table is a valuable resource for momentum-based short term traders:

From JPMorgan:

U.S.: Stocks closed lower. The SPX was unable to hold 5,600 today and declined for the first time after eight consecutive daily gains. Defensives outperformed: Staples, HC and RE are among the outperformers. NVDA (-2.1%) and SOXX (-1.3%) gave back gains today. Overall, today’s session was quite uneventful. Tomorrow, the key focus will be TGT/TJX earnings, Fed minutes and payroll revisions. Overall, investors are still in a waiting mode for flash PMIs and Jackson Hole.

and...

Equity and Macro Narrative: Equities reversed about 20% of yesterday’s gains with notable underperformance in RTY. Crowded shorts and cyclicals are the laggards. Macro calendar is quiet today. Tomorrow, we will receive minutes and BLS payroll revisions. Given the lack of macro catalysts so far this week, we may see some price reactions to a large upside/downside revision on payroll. However, flash PMIs (Thursday) and Jackson Hole (Friday) are more important catalysts. Below are (i) consumer earnings previews; (ii) trading desk commentary.

"If you never want to be criticized, for goodness’ sake don’t do anything new."

- Jeff Bezos

Bonus - Here are some great links:

• About Long Winning Streaks — Long Win Streaks Happen in Bull Markets, Carson Group 
• After the Gold Rush — After the Stock Market's Epic Spike 
• No Rally Without Potholes — No Correction without Stocks Falling in Price, All Star Charts
• Small Cap Country ETFs — My Research, Bespoke

From Charlie:

The Week in Charts (8/19/24) - Charlie Bilello's Blog

Stacked or cumulative inflation represents one of our country's greatest economic challenges

From my pal Hedgeye's Keith McCullough, which goes to the essence of our economic challenge (especially as it relates to that of the lower- and middle-income classes):

Wolf Street howls about Twitter's problematic debt.

"Banks Still Stuck with $13 Billion in Risky Loans from Musk’s LBO of Twitter 22 Months Ago, Possibly the Longest Hung Deal of this Size Ever," Wolf Street.