That's it. Doug's time off is over, as is the eight-day winning streak for the major U.S. equity indices. The S&P 500 gave up 0.2% for the day on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq Composite surrendered 0.33%. 

There really was not a ton of action on Wall Street away from the energy space. Eight of the 11 S&P sector SPDR ETFs shaded into the red on Tuesday, led lower by Energy XLE as that fund gave back 2.35%. The other 10 sector ETFs all closed between -0.86% and +0.39%.

Clearly, defensive-type sectors were your leaders on Tuesday as the Staples XLP, Health Care XLV and the REITs XLRE were the only three sectors to close in the green. Palo Alto Networks PANW led the S&P 500, gaining 7.18% after reporting a solid quarter and issuing strong guidance on Monday evening.

Treasury securities were strong on Tuesday. The yield for the U.S. ten-year note dropped to 3.82%, while the yield for the U.S. two-year note dropped to an even 4%. The U.S. Dollar Index was soft, giving up 0.47%. That helped gold and silver, but not crude. Bitcoin was relatively flat for the day.

It's been a pleasure working with you in Doug's place a few times over the past week. As always, I'll drop in from time to time and, on that note, I'll see you bright and early as I'll try to be the first one to welcome Doug back. Have a safe evening, gang. God bless. 

Q) The post-integration (1947) major league record for consecutive complete games pitched without recording a single strikeout is two. It happened a handful of tims in the late 1940's and early 1950's but only once since 1956... in 1983. Can you name the hurler who completed two starts back-to-back in May of 1983 without striking out a single hitter? Hint: American League.

A) On May 23rd, 1983, Geoff Zahn of the California Angels defeated the Cleveland Indians 7-4, going 9 innings, allowing 9 hits, striking out nobody and walking 2. On May 28th, Zhan defeated the New York Yankees 3-0, again going 9 innings, allowing 4 hits, striking out zero, and walking 3.

Note: Geof Zahn was not a star but was no slouch either. Zahn went 111-109 with a 3.74 ERA in a career that lasted from 1973 until 1985. His best year was 1982, when he went 18-8 with a 3.73 ERA and finished 6th in the AL Cy Young race.

News out this week. Q3 earnings expected October 29, 2024. Looking for 32% earnings growth of 16% revenue growth.

Falling wedge pattern of bullish reversal.

Target price: $186

Pivot: 200-day SMA

Add: Down to wedge line support

Panic: Breakdown of pattern without a breakout.

The post-integration (1947) major league record for consecutive complete games pitched without recording a single strikeout is two. It happened a handful of times in the late 1940s and early 1950s, but only once since 1956... in 1983. 

Can you name the hurler who completed two starts back to back in May 1983 without striking out a single hitter? Hint: American League.

Friendly Reminder

      Don't forget tomorrow, the BLS publishes their preliminary estimate ahead of their annual revision to year prior job creation at 10am ET. In short, the US is likely to lose about a million jobs that were never really created in the first place. Just how long have we been beating up on the financial media for covering GDP over GDI when covering growth, or for reporting only the strongest labor market numbers, while barely covering the known to be more accurate BLS quarterly BED reports that have warned that the monthly employment data had been grossly overstated since the start of 2023. 

      Nope. The media wanted no part of these less optimistic numbers that suggested the economy might not really be roaring after all. They had a narrative to run with and run with it they did. The period covering April 2023 to March 2024 will be what is revised tomorrow... It is anticipated by many that close to, or even more than one million fewer jobs were actually created during that period than were reported in the monthly non-farm payrolls numbers.  

     What does that mean? The likely largest downward revision for job creation in at least the last 15 years very likely means that GDP for 2023 has to be restated. Will "they" be that honest? I have my doubts. "They may even have to find a way to make tomorrow's numbers look less awful. Trust them? After what we've seen the last few years? That's asking a lot. 

     We may or may not already be in recession. We know that if we use GDI instead of GDP (supposed to be interchangeable) that the US economy only grew 0.4%, not 2.5% in 2023, and that's using the unrevised BLS data. How far back do they backdate the onset of this economic contraction? Would we even be surprised, if they didn't? 

Remember When...

FuelCell Energy FCEL was part of the "Stocks Under $10" portfolio? Look at this disaster. Shareholders set to vote in October on a 1 for 12 reverse split. Yikes

Heads up: I am long this name with a $517 target price. That said, the stock is down $2 today and in danger of potentially forming a double top pattern. 

A triple bottom pattern of bullish reversal sprung on the CEO news. The stock peaked at $96 (my target probably would have been $98). The complete gap opening on August 13, 2024, requires a $78.43 print to fill. 

I remain short the stock, expecting a retest of pivot $83. My current target is $85. 

One mishap after another. On Monday evening, Air Current reported that Boeing BA would be grounding its 777X test fleet after an inspection found cracks in a key engine mounting structure. Seems like one more setback in Boeing's efforts to certify its largest jetliner. The 777X is merely five years behind schedule.

In addition, on Monday, the FAA issued an airworthiness directive requiring inspections of Boeing's 787 Dreamliners in response to an incident this past March that injured 50 passengers. GE Aerospace provides the GE9X engine for the 777X aircraft, having received orders for more than 700 of these engines. The problem is not with the engine, but with the structure around the engine. Still, this potentially slows down sales for GE.

BA is down 1.25% and GE is down 0.44% ahead of the U.S. open.

S&P Futures:- 7 vs FV.

Nasdaq Futures: +20 vs FV.

US Ten Year Note: 3.87%

US Two Year Note: 4.06%

US Three Month T-Bill: 5.19%

US Dollar Index: 101.85, down small.

WTI Crude: $74.19, down small.

Gold: $2,563, +0.86%.

Silver: $29.85, +1.85%.

Bitcoin: $60,538, +2.57%.

An eight-day winning streak. That doesn't happen very often. Traders must be expecting something special later this week. That would be Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at 10 a.m. ET on Friday morning from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Currently futures tradng in Chicago are pricing in a 76% probability for a quarter-percentage point reduction made to the target range for the Fed Funds Rate on Sept. 18. The other 24% is going for a half-point rate cut. Party on, dudes.

To get there from here, we first will have to traverse the BLS "preliminary" estimate for the annual revision to the month non-farm payrolls totals from April 2023 through March 2024. Again, this is the "preliminary estimate" and not the revision itself. To make it short, the U.S. economy is one realistic "preliminary estimate" away from losing about a million jobs that were never even created in the first place.

Yet, everyone believed in the strong economy. Everyone believed that we were never that close to recession. Listen up, sport. If we never hit stall speed, we were and maybe are this >< close. That's what I have to say about that.

Your friend and mine, Doug Kass will be out today as I believe this to be the final day of his time away. I may not be your favorite NCO, but I've got to be close. You know what that means. Just drop. Drop right there and push. Begin. 25, 50, until failure. Be your own guide, but don't cheat yourself. If you can't push, do something equally as unpleasant so we can get this party started. For today is Tuesday, and as we all know, Tuesday's child is full of grace.

That reminds me. I have to pray. Grab yourself a cup of Joe and buckle in. The odds of ninth straight "W"? Probably not so good if we're throwing dice or flipping baseball cards. This game is different, in a box of chocolates kind of way. I think you know what I mean.