That was a tough day. Not crazy tough, but hard to make decisions on where and when to add to high conviction longs. I'm glad tomorrow's Friday. I could use a weekend. The day began with a warmer than expected February PPI report and a cooler than expected February retail sales report. Treasury securities sold off, as equities followed. The Atlanta Fed reduced its GDPNow model for Q1 GDP to growth of 2.3% from 2.5% (q/q, SAAR).

Just two of the eleven S&P sector SPDR ETFs gained ground for the session as Energy XLE led the way at +1.06%. The interest rate sensitive defensives finished at the bottom of the performance tables. By day's end, the US Ten Year Note paid 4.4% and the US Two Year Note paid 4.7%. The US dollar Index strengthened as one has to think that the recent macro means that the Fed will have to sit on their hands for a while.

The S&P 500 gave up 0.29% on the day as the Nasdaq Composite performed in-line at -0.3%. The Russell 2000 was slapped around for 2.21% as the Dow Transports were handed a 1.55% beating.

Note to Readers... Towards day's end, we were informed in the comments section below that long-time Doug's Diary participant BillyBob had passed away earlier this week after a month-long battle with pneumonia. I imagine that this will bother Doug very much once he finds out.

I don't know of BillyBob's faith, or the faith of any readership, but I am Irish Catholic, and this is how we pray at a time like this... please substitute whatever is suitable for yours or BillyBob's purposes.

"Eternal rest grant unto BillyBob, O Lord, and let perpetual light shine upon him. May his soul and the souls of all the faithful departed, through the mercy of God, rest in peace."

Amen. 

Question:

Since integration in 1947, only four MLB hitters with at least 500 plate appearances in a season, hit for at least a .375 batting average while posting at least a .450 on-base percentage. Name them.

Answer:

1) Stan Musial, St. Louis (1948) hit .376 with an OBP of .450.

2) Ted Williams, Boston (1957) hit .388 with an OBP of .526.

3) George Brett, KC (1980) hit .390 with an OBP of .454.

4) Larry Walker, Colorado (1999) hit .379 with an OBP of .458

Breakout !!

It appears that Microsoft MSFT, which is just a couple of months from breaking out of a cup with handle pattern, is at it again. MSFT is currently trying to break out of a basing period of consolidation with a $420 pivot. Microsoft is my largest long position.

- Target Price: $504 (up from $460)

- Pivot: $420

- Add: between 21-day EMA (exponential moving average) and 50-day SMA (simple moving average)

- Panic: Loss of 200-day SMA.

Since integration in 1947, only four MLB hitters with at least 500 plate appearances in a season, hit for at least a .375 batting average while posting at least a .450 on-base percentage. Name them.

For anyone who might be interested, I will be appearing with Ashley Webster and "Dutch" Master at the Fox Business Network this afternoon at 3 pm ET. 

I'm not adding to my long position in SoFi Technologies SOFI until I see if this selloff holds the lows of two weeks ago. 

A failure here and I move down to the lows of November for my next addition.

Palantir PLTR stock has found support at its former pivot. 

I expect to add to my long position on this test of the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) from above. 

My target price remains $27.

For February, Retail Sales, published by the Census Bureau, were supposed to rebound from what was an awful January. Rebound they did, but not to the point of meeting expectations. Remember, also that retail sales are not adjusted for inflation, so they are never truly as strong as they appear in current dollar purchasing power.

At the headline level, February Retail Sales printed up 0.6%, up huge from January's revised -1.1%, but below expectations for growth of 0.7%. Core retail sales printed up 0.3% from January's revised -0.8% and below the consensus view for growth of 0.4%.

Where did the burst of positive strength come from? Motor vehicles, electronics, appliances, building materials and gasoline. What continued to contract? Furniture, Clothing, Clothing accessories, Department Stores and even Nonstore (internet) retailers.

Just in case you're wondering, the line item that best informs how folks are feeling about the economic condition came in flat (0.0%) from January. For the new kids, that line is the one that I refer to as the "fun index" because it's all about discretionary spending... and includes sporting goods, hobbies, music, and books. 

If folks are not spending on those items, they are probably not having all that much fun. Period.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics just released their data for February produce prices. Like consumer prices on Tuesday, the results were warmer than expected. As a matter of fact, they were much warmer than expected.

On a month over month basis, February PPI printed at growth of 0.6% at the headline. This was double the pace of the expected growth of 0.3% and up from 0.3% growth in January. At the core, February PPI grew 0.3% for the month, down from 0.5% in January, but ahead of the consensus for growth of 0.2%.

On a year over year basis, headline PPI accelerated to growth of 1.6%, up from 1% and well above the 1.1% consensus. Core PPI, on a year over year basis, grew 2%, flat from January, but up just a tick from expectations for growth of 1.9%.

These numbers may be taken in stride by financial markets, but in my opinion, the not so sudden but now several months of rekindled inflation across both the consumer and producer levels has to rattle some cages.

If I am a voting member of the FOMC, there is no way in heck that I would vote for a short-term rate cut any time soon, and as for the back half of the year, I would not even make any public commentary.

Inflation has not been tamed, and with the money supply/monetary base still at just stupid levels, this could easily become a serious problem. Again.

On CNBC on Wednesday, Palantir Technologies PLTR CEO Alex Karp did not hold back when discussing short sellers. 

Karp said that short sellers are "going short on a truly great American company, not just ours, but they just love pulling down great American companies so that they can pay for the coke."

Karp added that "The best thing that could happen to (short sellers) is we will lead their coke dealers to their homes after they can't pay their bills."

Gee whiz, tell us how you really feel. Oh, and who knew short sellers liked Coca-Cola KO so much? I'm more of a root beer man myself.

Dollar General DG: Q4 GAAP EPS of $1.83 on revenue of $9.9B (-3.4%). Both numbers beat consensus. Stock is up 5.5%.

Dick's Sporting Goods DKS: Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.86 on revenue of $3.88B (+8.1%). Both numbers beat the Street. Provided new guidance. Stock is up 4.7%. 

(All Times Eastern)

08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly): Expecting 218K, Last 217K.

08:30 - Continuing Claims (Weekly): Last 1.906M.

08:30 - PPI (Feb): Expecting 0.3% m/m, Last 0.3% m/m.

08:30 - Core PPI (Feb): Expecting 0.3% m/m, Last 0.5% m/m.

08:30 - PPI (Feb): Expecting 1.2% y/y, Last 0.9% y/y.

08:30 - Core PPI (Feb): Expecting 2.0% y/y, Last 2.0% y/y.

08:30 - Retail Sales (Feb): Expecting 0.7% m/m, Last -0.8% m/m.

08:30 - Core Retail Sales (Feb): Expecting 0.4% m/m, Last -0.6% m/m.

10:00 - Business Inventories (Jan): Expecting 0.2% m/m, Last 0.4% m/m.

10:30 - Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly): Last -40B cf.

From Bloomberg News, here.

S&P futures... +19 vs. FV

Nasdaq futures... +94 vs. FV

US Ten Year Note... 4.20%

US Two Year Note... 4.64%

US Three Month T-Bill... 5.39%

US Dollar Index... 102.87

WTI Crude... $80.44, +0.9%

Gold... $2,173, -0.34%

Silver... $25.19, +0.16%

Bitcoin... $73,227, -0.32%

Happy Thursday!! Oh, what a day we have in store for you!! If you love the macro, and be honest... who doesn't love the macro, this will be a day for you. 

Come 08:30 here on the East Coast of North America, we'll get hit with U.S. February data for producer level prices and retail sales all at once. About 90 minutes later, the Census Bureau will release January Business Inventories and then we wait. We wait until the Atlanta Fed revises its GDPNow model for the first quarter.

Not enough fun for you? Heck, that's why the good Lord created push-ups. So, you'll never be bored. Rock freakin' on. 

Today is also the most action-packed day for high-profile earnings in what is really a quiet week for that sort of thing. Just when you thought we were in between earnings seasons (we are), Dick's Sporting Goods DKS and Dollar General DG will report this morning. By the time you read this, those numbers may have already crossed the tape. The real fun today will come after the bell. That's when one of our old friends and one of Jim Cramer's original "Cloud Kings," Adobe ADBE, and Ulta Beauty ULTA will report side by side.

This is your chance. For it is I, your all-time favorite trader, investor, economist, infantry NCO, and former college ice hockey player. I am filling in for our dear pal, Doug Kass today and we are going to run through this day like well, you know what through a goose. 

We are grateful for the challenges presented. We come seeking victory, and honor, but if we can only have one, oh mighty Lord... let it be honor. Victory without honor is hollow, but honor without victory still has substance. Always Faithful.